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I'm pleased to welcome PATRICK TYLER, former Beijing bureau

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chief for the New York Times.

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He's the author of a new book, A Great Wall, Six

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Presidents and China.

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Also here, JOHN HOLDEN, president of the National

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Committee on U.S.-China Relations, a non-profit group

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that encourages understanding of China and the United States

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among citizens of both countries.

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Thank you both for coming.

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When you sat down here and I said, ''Let's get the book out

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here,'' you said, ''This is the book that I wish I could have

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read.'' You know?

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Giving you the benefit of the fact that you are the author

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of this book, what is it you wish you had known when you went

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to China?

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The political biography of all six presidents

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and how

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they came to terms, how they came to understand China, and

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how they maneuvered against their China problem, both

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internationally, but in our domestic politics.

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Resulting in not a very clear

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and clarity of policy?

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Oh, resulting in the fact that

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each president has

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at times been in flight from conservative or liberal members

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in Congress who are upset about this or that aspect of China

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policy, whether it's trade or proliferation or human rights.

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Each president has had to grapple with that, including

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President Nixon, who -- after all -- went to China just months

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after Teddy Kennedy made China and rapprochement with China an

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issue for his prospective candidacy, of course, which fell

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apart after Chappaquidick.

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Is Richard Nixon-- is Richard Nixon the

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president they admire the most because he was there at the

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historic moment of opening China?

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He took the step, and it was

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a courageous step.

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And they-- I think they admire President Carter also because he

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completed that step.

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What is it -- do you think, Patrick -- that the

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Chinese, when they look at the United States, what is it that

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they want out of the relationship?

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Is it, as the ambassador said, a relationship for mutual

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benefit to both?

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Or, as Bob Kagan, a relationship in which they want

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to dominate in the-- in their own region and secondly only

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want to do those things that will inure to their benefit?

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Right.

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Well, it's complex.

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I mean, they admire us.

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They're scared of us.

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They want from us.

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They want technology transfer.

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Deng Xiaoping came to America in 1971 and said, ''I'll take all

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the technology that you dare to sell me.

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That's what we want.'' And, when you were talking about the

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way they looked at Russia and they analyze Russia's history,

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they see the trap that Russia and the Soviet Union got into by

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militarizing their society, by putting all of their economic

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eggs in a military empire.

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And they saw that that collapsed.

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And so economic development is the prime objective of Chinese

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society and of the leadership.

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And that's why we shouldn't

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necessarily fear them militarily.

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That's my point.

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Is that in our interest?

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Or is that not in our interest?

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For them to have economic development so that they take

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their place among the community of nations?

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Absolutely because the consequences of

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China's failure in the next century are more serious than

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the-- than the scare scenarios you hear from people who talk

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about the consequences of China's rise.

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If China collapsed -- a nation of a billion-three people -- and

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started an exodus of refugees and depression.

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All of Asia would be undermined, hundreds of millions, billions

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of people would be affected by the failure of China

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in the next century.

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Our environment, our economy would be affected by it.

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There are consequences going both ways but more on the

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failure of China.

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Where do you see the bilateral

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relationship going?

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And where should it go?

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It's been at a terrible trough this summer, and

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I think the ambassador's absolutely correct that it will

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be moving ahead.

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But it's going to be-- What we need in this country, to help

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things go along, is a re-energized focus on defining

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what our priorities are in the relationship and the building of

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a consensus that will support a president in his policies

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towards China.

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That's something that--

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Consensus, that would be?

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That would be-- that would rank the various

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things that we want in the relationship and bring more

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coherence that I think would be-- would enable us to

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negotiate better with China.

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It would lay out a framework that they

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would be able to understand.

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Right now, what we have is a hodge-podge.

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One moment it's human rights.

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Another moment it's non-proliferation.

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The Chinese are really-- have trouble where we're coming from.

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And I think it's our job to try to--

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Speak with one voice?

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Speak with-- Well, more or less with one

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voice, anyway.

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And it's the Chinese job, as they get more freedom in their

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media and a more-- a society that's more -- how shall we say?

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-- has more disparate voices in it, try to manage that as well

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in their own country.

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One thing that has always

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concerned me about China.

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It seems that there's an element of paranoia there -- paranoia

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about the United States, paranoia about the world in a

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sense, paranoia about the threat of democracy, paranoia about a

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free media, paranoia that somehow, if we don't keep a

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tight lid on things, we could lose our power.

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Now, that's a leadership kind of a--

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I think it's a--

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Is that true?

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I think it is absolutely true. The Chinese

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Communist Party leadership knows that there's a

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history of grievances that have been built up in that society

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that go back 30 years.

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People have lost family members to famine because of crazy

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policy-induced economic programs instituted by Mao in the '50s

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and '60s.

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There are people who have lost family members in prison or who

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have been treated unfairly, who've had the families divided.

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So, there are religious grievances.

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There's a built-up well of grievances, and that's why they

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maintain this authoritarian control and see every effort at

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-- external effort, especially, from the United States -- over

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promoting human rights as a covert operation to destabilize

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the Communist Party and topple them.

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So-- but here is the question also that comes up

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and, John, jump in on this-- It is this notion that is part of

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the view of sort of the American establishment that, if we can

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open up trade, if in somehow the whole breath of fresh air that

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comes in from those kind of relationships, it'll flow over

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and impact their opening up of their society.

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There'll be more of freedom rising, more democracy.

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They'll be more comfortable with the outside.

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Oh, I think that's already been happening.

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And it's clear.

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I've lived in China in the early '80s and again in the mid-'90s.

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And the society is an awful lot more open than it used to be.

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And I was also in Taiwan during the rule of the KMT, when Chiang

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Kai-shek was in power, and it was

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extraordinarily authoritarian.

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So, these kinds of developments in the Chinese

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context can take place.

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In China, it's gonna take longer 'cause

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it's a bigger country.

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But I think, if you talk to Chinese intelligentsia, they're

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gonna tell you that they recognize that their political

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institutions will need some changing.

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Now, where that leads exactly and how and when--

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Right. And, well--

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And how--

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And what kind of change do they perceive their

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political institutions will need?

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Well, already they've allowed the rise of a

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whole slew-- I would say-- I think there was several million

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of these non-governmental organizations, which deal with

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certain social issues outside the control of the government.

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And this has not yet moved into the political realm,

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as Pat just mentioned.

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But it's not inconceivable to me that this will

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happen at one point.

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It seems to me, Patrick, that there is such a

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natural reason for them to be in favor, as they are in sending

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their sons and daughters to American universities, as they

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are in wanting American products to come

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over because it benefits

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their balance of payments.

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It seems to me such a strong incentive for them not to allow

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the kind of right-sentiment -- from the Congress and other

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places -- that views them, you know, as some version of a

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hostile power.

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They have their own

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domestic politics. And--

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It's all about domestic politics.

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In their own party, you'll hear the same voices

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-- ''You're weak.

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You're not tough enough on Clinton.

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You're letting those Americans manipulate you, lead you by the

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nose.'' And Jiang Zemin is a prisoner of a very large

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collective leadership.

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He's the president, but he is not a powerful figure on the

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stage of Chinese leaders over the last 40 years.

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But he doesn't fear Li Peng 'cause that battle

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has been won, has it not?

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No, he does fear him.

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Li Peng is number two on the standing

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committee of the Politburo.

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He's number two in power in the inner circle of the party.

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So, he stands prepared to push him out of the

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way if he can?

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If he could, but he can't.

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And Li Peng is always there ready to stick his finger in

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whose-ever ribs who says, ''We need to move closer or make

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concession to America.''

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Then is what's required both a wiser

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understanding of the domestic

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politics of both countries.

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We in the United States have to understand what are the domestic

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constraints on President Zemin.

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Absolutely.

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And the Chinese have to understand what are the

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domestic constraints of a separation of power in America.

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That's absolutely correct, and

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that's the-- one of

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the central subjects that our committee works on is to try to

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get into that, understand in both countries and communicate

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about that central issue.

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This relationship is driven by

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domestic politics in both countries.

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And, during the Cold War, you could-- you could overcome

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domestic politics.

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You can't anymore.

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And we've now got the sorting-out of all these other

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issues that ping on relationship.

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And it's very hard to lead in either capital.

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Yeah, but -- I mean -- it seems to me that

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that's the modern reality that we have to do-- whether it's

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Eastern Europe, if it's in the Soviet Union-- I mean, Russia or

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wherever it is.

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You have to recognize what are the domestic constraints on

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people that you're trying to make a deal with-- You know, I

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guess it was Rabin once said, ''You know, you don't negotiate

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with your friends.

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You negotiate with your enemies.'' Let me come to this

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point -- the World Trade Organization.

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They must have come here, when the prime minister came to the

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United States, and thought it was wrapped up and he left

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because Clinton decided to have a change of heart and then

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flipped back again-- that we were ambiguous, ambivalent and

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sending mixed signals and cause huge second-guessing about where

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the relationship was going.

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I think it hurt Zhu Rongji when he went home.

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He came here, made important concessions, put

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them on the table.

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And Clinton was absorbed with his Balkans campaign.

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Right.

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And missed a real opportunity and was

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afflicted by what we've seen in President Clinton's two terms

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repeatedly -- an inability to seize the initiative and take

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something forward, indecisiveness, paralysis,

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political fear of the reaction in Congress.

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Does Auckland suggest that he is now on-course

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and realizes the mistakes and wants to move forward in a very

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positive way to you?

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I think Auckland simply reflects the reality

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since the crisis of 1995-'96, that President Clinton was

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trying to repair and stabilize the China relationship and get

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to the end of his term without causing another military

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confrontation in Asia.

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If he could accomplish that

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>>WTO thing at minimum political cost: Because it's not a high

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priority? Because they don't think it's worth it?

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Or because--

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He'll see-- he'll see a congressional revolt

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that'll spin into Al-- against Al Gore

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in the presidential campaign.

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Yeah.

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There's also, I think, a realization in Congress

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among some members that were wishy-washy about the issue,

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that they can't afford to let this relationship with China

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deteriorate further.

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And so I think there has been a certain resurgence of support

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for the WTO as the sole issue on the table that we can move

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together on at this point.

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So, it's reading that political map in Congress, I think, has

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become very tricky.

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Do you believe China will be an issue in the

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19-- in the year-2000 presidential campaign?

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Without a doubt.

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And how will it be framed?

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It's difficult to say.

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I'm hopeful that the leading candidates will avoid the kind

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of posturing that Clinton himself did before he-- during

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his election.

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Buchanan and Forbes have already come out-- and Bauer--

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with very fearmongering, in my opinion, stances on China.

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But I'm hopeful that Bush, Bradley and Gore will be more

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mainstream on this.

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So, it's possible that we'll sidestep a little of it.

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But, if Buchanan gets the Reform Party

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nomination, we're off to the races.

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Absolutely.

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Yeah, he said it last night.

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He said that the two parties are not tough on China, ''That's my

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foreign-policy plank.''

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This book is called A Great Wall, by PATRICK

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TYLER, former Beijing bureau chief for

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the New York Times -- Six Presidents and China, An

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Investigative History.

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You can look here from Nixon to Ford to Carter to Reagan to Bush

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to Clinton and see, in a sense, those president -- all who have

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had an eye on China, knowing that it was an important

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bilateral relationship.

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And it's been this up-and-down and up-and-down as Ambassador

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Sasser said to us.

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Thank you very much, Patrick.

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You're welcome. Pleasure.

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Thank you, John.

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Thank you, Charlie.

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Thank you.

