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Kagan and Khanna, coming up.

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Robert Kagan is here.

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He is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for

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International Peace.

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He is a columnist for "The Washington Post."

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His previous books include "Of Paradise and Power" and

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"Dangerous Nation." And his new book is called "The Return of

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History and the End of Dreams."

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I am pleased to have him back at this table.

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Welcome back.

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Thanks, Charlie.

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All right.

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We'll get to the arguments here.

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This is a recent profile of "The Observer" in England.

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I'm just going to read the first paragraph.

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"Robert Kagan, author, essayist, former diplomat,

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preeminent thinker of what is called neoconservativism, and

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now foreign policy advisor to Republican presidential nominee

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John McCain, would like it to be known that

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there are many things

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that he is not.

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He denies, despite claims to the contrary, that he is a disciple

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of Leo Strauss, the father of neocons -- thousands of Google

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hits to the contrary notwithstanding.

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He is uncomfortable, too, he says, with the title 'neocon.'

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Instead, he insists he is liberal and progressive in a

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distinctively American tradition."

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Let's just take the last sentence of that.

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OK.

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Tell me what you mean if you said that.

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Well, I just think, you know, people use this

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term "neoconservative," that there's two halves of it.

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One is the "neo," so there's something new.

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Right.

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And the other is "conservative." And I think

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that my foreign policy is neither neo nor conservative.

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And the tradition that I think that I fit in -- there's

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numerous traditions in American foreign policy, but one of them

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I would trace back to, you know, Harry Truman and Dean Acheson,

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Teddy Roosevelt, going all the way back to Alexander Hamilton

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and others.

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It's a tradition that believes, first of all, that American

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ideals are a key part of what we are as a nation,

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and what we are

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in the world.

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I mean, the idea that the United States should try to propagate

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its value goes right back to the founding fathers.

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The idea that the United States should use its power both to

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protect itself, but also to help advance those ideals.

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you can see that in speeches whether it's Ronald Reagan or

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John F.

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Kennedy or Harry Truman or Teddy Roosevelt or George Washington,

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for that matter.

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And that's a strong tradition.

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There are countertraditions.

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There's a genuine conservative tradition which says, no, we

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need to stay home, mind our own business, not get involved.

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A kind of isolationism.

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A kind of --

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It doesn't even -- you don't have to -- you know

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we don't have to give that label either.

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Fair enough.

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I agree.

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But, you know, we can go back

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to, you know, Robert

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Taft, we could go back to someone like Patrick Henry at

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the time of the founding, said, you know, we are not an empire.

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He was attacking Alexander Hamilton at the time.

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All right.

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Let me -- let's take two of those issues --

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Sure.

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-- and then we'll get right to the book.

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The issue -- the first issue about America's values, have

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they been, in your judgment, tarnished because of our

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involvement in Iraq?

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Well, you know, and not for the first time.

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I mean, the answer is yes, because certainly the world

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views the United States as having acted I think wrongly,

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but having acted in a selfish way.

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Certainly the things that happened Abu Ghraib, certainly

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the incompetence of the war made it have tremendously negative

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effects, both in Iraq and in terms of world opinion.

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The only thing I would say about that is it's

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not the first time.

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I think we remember and people talk about America's image in

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the world today.

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What was America's image in the world between 1968 and 1974,

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when not only were we in Vietnam, we had the

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assassination of Martin Luther King, the assassination of Bobby

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Kennedy, Watergate, Kent State?

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The United States is not -- is far from perfect.

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I mean, it's a nation of human beings.

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And how did we recover from all of that?

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Take those series of things between '68 --

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It's a very important distinction.

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Why, for instance, at a time -- Nixon's America was not beloved

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in the world, I think it's fair to say.

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Right.

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What's different today?

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I think the biggest difference today is that during the Cold

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War -- and we are talking about Europe in particular --

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Europeans may have been very unhappy about American

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involvement in Vietnam.

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They may have been unhappy with the culture that they saw

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transpiring in the late '60s and early '70s.

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They still felt they depended on the United States for their

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fundamental security against the Soviet Union.

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And liked it that way.

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That's the way they liked it.

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And so they -- I would say Europeans were willing to give

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America a pass about a lot of things that they weren't happy

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about, about America at that time, because they still

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depended on us.

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And lived under our nuclear

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umbrella and all of that.

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Depended on us.

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And also, by the way, there was a strong anti-Communist feeling.

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Anti-communism, which probably was more than it should have

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been in America foreign policy during the Cold War,

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nevertheless bound America together with many other people

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around the world, including in Europe.

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When the Cold War ended, the Soviet Union disappeared,

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communism disappeared.

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Europeans in particular felt they are OK now, they don't need

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the United States.

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So I would say their tolerance level for American actions

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declined precipitously.

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And that's one reason that, whereas in Vietnam the alliance

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held together, in the case of Iraq we have seen the divergence

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that has grown.

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What is the challenge for the next president

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in terms of Iraq?

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First of all, the challenges is what we do about the troops that

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are over there.

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How long do they remain, how fast do you withdraw them?

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What has to be the change in the structure of that relationship

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and political reconciliation to enable you to

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focus on other places?

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What is the challenge for the new president in that in terms

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of a post Iraq?

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Right. .

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Restoring America's prestige.

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Right.

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Well, I mean, for one thing, obviously I think the next

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president is going to have to deal with a set of challenges in

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Iraq that we all know.

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And I don't think it's a big mystery.

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Exactly.

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The question is, can the United States also deal

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with some of the new challenges that have been evolving since

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the end of the Cold War?

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Which I talk about in the book.

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Right.

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I'm coming to that in a moment.

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And those are the fact that we now have what we

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didn't expect to have, a return to great power competition.

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It's not just the United States all by itself, it's not even

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just a bipolar world.

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You clearly have a Russia, a China, an India, a Japan, an

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Iran to some extent, a United States in

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great power competition.

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And a Europe.

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And a Europe in this kind of strange world --

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I'm coming to that.

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OK.

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So that's one thing.

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The new president has to understand where the United

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States fits in a new global order.

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Right. Exactly.

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And clearly, because -- partly because of the damage that has

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been done by Iraq to America's reputation, partly as a result

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of the reputation that was developed for unilateralism and

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for what I would say is sort of bad citizenship on a whole, bad

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international citizenship, I think the United States needs to

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re-establish what I think it had established

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during the Cold War,

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which is that it has a very broad view of its interests, not

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a narrow view of its interests.

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That its interests encompass the interest of

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many others as well,

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and that it takes its role as a world leader seriously.

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You know, the funny thing about the Bush administration, when it

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came in, don't forget, George Bush said we are going to be

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humble, we're not going to be involved in all of this stuff

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around the world.

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No nation building.

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We're going to look after all of

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our national interests.

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Well the world saw that, and they saw a country that was

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going to become a little bit more selfish than it had been

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before, more self-absorbed.

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Well, then September 11th came and all that, but I think we

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need to go back to saying, we define our interests broadly.

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We are not -- when the world is concerned, rightly, about

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climate change, we are going to do our part.

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The world views our actions, and rightly so,

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on torture at Guantanamo.

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We are going to make the changes necessary, we

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are going to listen.

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But we haven't.

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Well, I believe that the next president will

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deal with those.

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Right. Right.

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You are asking me what the next

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president should do.

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Absolutely.

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Fair enough.

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So that whole thing is, in a sense -- it is saying we live in

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a new world and, in fact, the new world is represented by the

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power of China, the power of Russia, and

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multipolarity everywhere.

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Right.

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OK.

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The second aspect of it is the employment of force.

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Yes.

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Two aspects.

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One is, do we have the resources to do it?

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And how do we make a decision when we do it?

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Right.

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Well, you know, we have the same old problem.

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We had too little to do what we did already.

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You know, we wound up having too few forces to fight two

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wars, even of you -- whether you thought they were

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a good idea or

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not, you had to have the ability to do it.

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And I think the administration again is very slow

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to increase forces.

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Now, why does force matter?

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That is going to be the question.

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And why is it still relevant?

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Because I think a lot of people look at the world and all they

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see is, like, hedge fund opportunities.

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I mean, we are in the world of geoeconomics.

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But you look at Russia today, the military parade that they

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have on inauguration day, you look at China.

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They are not out of the military power business.

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And I think to the thing we have to recognize is, we have not

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left the era of power politics.

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At the end of this book I quote that famous realist Hans

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Morgenthau, who says that Americans are constantly waiting

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for the curtain to fall and the game of power

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politics to be over.

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And the fact is, it doesn't end.

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And so we are going to still have to -- military power is

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going to be necessary in terms of deterrence.

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When to use it?

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We'll be facing all of the same difficult decisions that

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presidents have been facing for decades.

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Iraq doesn't in fact change the decision, because all you could

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say is do it intelligently, don't do it stupidly.

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And we did it stupidly.

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We did do it stupidly, yes.

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And a lot of people --

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Was it possible -- I'm sorry, go ahead.

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Well, I mean, we were all -- I think that Iraq

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was going to be a difficult problem no matter what, but

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there were many of us.

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And, you know, including John McCain, who not a year ago, not

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two years ago, but within three months or less after the

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00:09:38.601 --> 00:09:40.434
invasion, said we do not have the proper forces to engage in

261
00:09:40.434 --> 00:09:42.300
bringing order and stability to this country.

262
00:09:42.300 --> 00:09:44.133
So, therefore, we need to have

263
00:09:44.133 --> 00:09:45.968
more people coming

264
00:09:45.968 --> 00:09:47.801
into the military.

265
00:09:47.801 --> 00:09:49.634
More people coming in to the military.

266
00:09:49.634 --> 00:09:51.467
They have to deploy them differently?

267
00:09:51.467 --> 00:09:53.267
We have to grow the size of our -- you know,

268
00:09:53.267 --> 00:09:54.734
there was a theory at the end of the Cold

269
00:09:54.734 --> 00:09:56.200
War, and it was adopted

270
00:09:56.200 --> 00:09:57.667
very much by Don Rumsfeld and others.

271
00:09:57.667 --> 00:09:59.133
And it was a respectable theory, which is that

272
00:09:59.133 --> 00:10:00.601
we're in a time of

273
00:10:00.601 --> 00:10:02.234
what they call strategic pause.

274
00:10:02.234 --> 00:10:03.934
Right.

275
00:10:03.934 --> 00:10:05.734
Cut back on the ground forces, go toward the

276
00:10:05.734 --> 00:10:07.334
high tech.

277
00:10:07.334 --> 00:10:08.767
Well you have to go toward the high tech, but unfortunately the

278
00:10:08.767 --> 00:10:10.367
world doesn't wait while you get there.

279
00:10:10.367 --> 00:10:11.801
So --

280
00:10:11.801 --> 00:10:13.400
Yes.

281
00:10:13.400 --> 00:10:14.934
And they thought that Iraq could be an experiment for that new

282
00:10:14.934 --> 00:10:16.334
kind of warfare?

283
00:10:16.334 --> 00:10:17.934
Well, first Afghanistan was, right?

284
00:10:17.934 --> 00:10:20.868
Rumsfeld did. Yes.

285
00:10:20.868 --> 00:10:22.534
Afghanistan was that we go in light, Special

286
00:10:22.534 --> 00:10:24.300
Forces, bomb from the air.

287
00:10:24.300 --> 00:10:25.901
It worked great.

288
00:10:25.901 --> 00:10:27.734
It worked because we had the Northern Alliance.

289
00:10:27.734 --> 00:10:29.734
Worked with the Northern Alliance.

290
00:10:29.734 --> 00:10:31.767
Yes.

291
00:10:31.767 --> 00:10:33.834
I think they thought, yes, you do a quick

292
00:10:33.834 --> 00:10:36.100
decapitation of Saddam, you air-drop in your General de

293
00:10:36.100 --> 00:10:38.100
Gaulle, and there is your Iraq for you.

294
00:10:38.100 --> 00:10:39.834
And that just wasn't -- that wasn't plausible.

295
00:10:39.834 --> 00:10:41.767
And they didn't have a General de Gaulle either.

296
00:10:41.767 --> 00:10:45.934
Apparently not.

297
00:10:45.934 --> 00:10:48.100
Tell me just for a moment, before we talk about

298
00:10:48.100 --> 00:10:50.467
sort of how we deal with this new world that is clearly there,

299
00:10:50.467 --> 00:10:52.501
what mistakes, where were you wrong about Iraq?

300
00:10:52.501 --> 00:10:54.534
Well, I was wrong, I would say, along with

301
00:10:54.534 --> 00:10:56.567
many, many, many other people about whether he had weapons of

302
00:10:56.567 --> 00:10:58.567
mass destruction.

303
00:10:58.567 --> 00:11:00.567
That would be -- that would be quite --

304
00:11:00.567 --> 00:11:02.601
Now, what did you think he had?

305
00:11:02.601 --> 00:11:04.667
I think -- I thought -- and I have the same

306
00:11:04.667 --> 00:11:06.901
information that you probably had.

307
00:11:06.901 --> 00:11:08.801
I listened to the Clinton administration speeches.

308
00:11:08.801 --> 00:11:10.901
I remember William Cohen getting up there with a bag of sugar.

309
00:11:10.901 --> 00:11:12.701
I remember Bill Clinton saying he has these stockpiles, et

310
00:11:12.701 --> 00:11:14.567
cetera, et cetera, et cetera.

311
00:11:14.567 --> 00:11:16.434
I remember reading a book by Richard Butler, the head --

312
00:11:16.434 --> 00:11:18.367
Oh, sure.

313
00:11:18.367 --> 00:11:20.300
-- of -- you know.

314
00:11:20.300 --> 00:11:22.267
The Australian who was --

315
00:11:22.267 --> 00:11:24.234
The Australian who was the head of the U.N.

316
00:11:24.234 --> 00:11:26.200
inspectors in Iraq saying that they had all these stockpiles

317
00:11:26.200 --> 00:11:28.200
unaccounted for and the greatest danger.

318
00:11:28.200 --> 00:11:30.167
So I didn't have any independent information.

319
00:11:30.167 --> 00:11:31.901
All I knew is what the American intelligence --

320
00:11:31.901 --> 00:11:33.467
What we thought he had was both --

321
00:11:33.467 --> 00:11:35.133
Programs and stockpiles.

322
00:11:35.133 --> 00:11:36.868
OK.

323
00:11:36.868 --> 00:11:38.434
Right.

324
00:11:38.434 --> 00:11:40.100
Stockpiles of biochemical and --

325
00:11:40.100 --> 00:11:43.434
Of precursors and all kind of --

326
00:11:43.434 --> 00:11:45.100
And programs for --

327
00:11:45.100 --> 00:11:46.868
And programs for nuclear,

328
00:11:46.868 --> 00:11:48.434
biological and chemical.

329
00:11:48.434 --> 00:11:50.100
And, you know, we now -- by the way, to this day we don't know

330
00:11:50.100 --> 00:11:51.868
what he did with all of those stockpiles.

331
00:11:51.868 --> 00:11:53.667
OK.

332
00:11:53.667 --> 00:11:55.167
We know he had them at one time.

333
00:11:55.167 --> 00:11:57.067
Apparently, he destroyed them, then tried to fake --

334
00:11:57.067 --> 00:11:59.801
That he still had them.

335
00:11:59.801 --> 00:12:02.100
-- the fact that he didn't destroy them.

336
00:12:02.100 --> 00:12:04.467
I mean, you know, so that was clearly an error.

337
00:12:04.467 --> 00:12:06.501
And, you know, I would say that, you know, it's like Fareed

338
00:12:06.501 --> 00:12:08.701
Zakaria says.

339
00:12:08.701 --> 00:12:10.834
Who knew the administration was going to blow it as badly as

340
00:12:10.834 --> 00:12:13.334
they blew it?

341
00:12:13.334 --> 00:12:15.734
I mean, when I was talking about what needed to be done in

342
00:12:15.734 --> 00:12:18.000
Iraq before the war and after the war, I thought we need

343
00:12:18.000 --> 00:12:20.234
200,000 or 300,000 troops to go in there and take -- it never

344
00:12:20.234 --> 00:12:22.133
occurred to me that wasn't the obvious -- the obvious point.

345
00:12:22.133 --> 00:12:23.834
But I don't want to sort of just say it's just the

346
00:12:23.834 --> 00:12:25.601
administration's fault.

347
00:12:25.601 --> 00:12:27.167
I mean --

348
00:12:27.167 --> 00:12:28.834
Yes.

349
00:12:28.834 --> 00:12:30.601
-- it is what it is.

350
00:12:30.601 --> 00:12:32.167
I will tell you something.

351
00:12:32.167 --> 00:12:33.868
We've had this conversation before, Charlie.

352
00:12:33.868 --> 00:12:35.601
I still don't have an easy time saying I wish Saddam Hussein

353
00:12:35.601 --> 00:12:37.167
were still in power in Iraq.

354
00:12:37.167 --> 00:12:38.601
That would be another set of problems.

355
00:12:38.601 --> 00:12:40.167
Nor am I convinced that we could have avoided

356
00:12:40.167 --> 00:12:41.868
war with Iraq eventually.

357
00:12:41.868 --> 00:12:43.367
I agree.

358
00:12:43.367 --> 00:12:45.000
We have had this conversation before.

359
00:12:45.000 --> 00:12:46.767
And we are having it again.

360
00:12:46.767 --> 00:12:49.067
And we'll have it another year.

361
00:12:49.067 --> 00:12:51.300
I'll just -- I'll ask it every time and see if

362
00:12:51.300 --> 00:12:53.467
you've learned anything more, because we depend on someone --

363
00:12:53.467 --> 00:12:55.801
not depend, but we look to you for some sense of, what are we

364
00:12:55.801 --> 00:12:57.801
learning from our own experiences?

365
00:12:57.801 --> 00:12:59.801
Well, let me tell you one thing --

366
00:12:59.801 --> 00:13:01.901
And when we're wrong, we better recognize we

367
00:13:01.901 --> 00:13:04.367
are wrong.

368
00:13:04.367 --> 00:13:06.801
And secondly, we better be accountable.

369
00:13:06.801 --> 00:13:09.267
Let me tell you one thing that now I realize,

370
00:13:09.267 --> 00:13:11.434
and it's a good segue into this other discussion, is that I did

371
00:13:11.434 --> 00:13:13.567
not anticipate the degree of world opposition to the

372
00:13:13.567 --> 00:13:15.400
intervention, and I think it should have been more obvious.

373
00:13:15.400 --> 00:13:17.267
I think it was.

374
00:13:17.267 --> 00:13:18.934
I mean, I really have problems with that --

375
00:13:18.934 --> 00:13:20.434
Yes.

376
00:13:20.434 --> 00:13:22.067
-- because I talked to one foreign leader

377
00:13:22.067 --> 00:13:23.767
after another.

378
00:13:23.767 --> 00:13:25.300
Yes.

379
00:13:25.300 --> 00:13:26.968
You know, from people like -- I mean, people

380
00:13:26.968 --> 00:13:28.434
like the foreign minister of Saudi Arabia.

381
00:13:28.434 --> 00:13:30.167
Yes.

382
00:13:30.167 --> 00:13:32.567
Saud al-Faisal said don't do it, it's stupid.

383
00:13:32.567 --> 00:13:35.367
Fair enough.

384
00:13:35.367 --> 00:13:38.567
And so that was clearly a blind spot, although a lot of us who

385
00:13:38.567 --> 00:13:41.234
lived through the Clinton years and remembered how hard it was

386
00:13:41.234 --> 00:13:43.467
to get Europeans to go along, even with the battle in Kosovo,

387
00:13:43.467 --> 00:13:45.801
and the idea was if America leads, eventually the allies

388
00:13:45.801 --> 00:13:48.200
will come along.

389
00:13:48.200 --> 00:13:50.601
Right.

390
00:13:50.601 --> 00:13:52.634
And I have to say that I believe that if America

391
00:13:52.634 --> 00:13:54.834
just took the initiative, and pressed ahead, that the allies

392
00:13:54.834 --> 00:13:57.334
might have some difficulties, but eventually

393
00:13:57.334 --> 00:13:59.434
they would go along.

394
00:13:59.434 --> 00:14:01.501
And one thing that I didn't -- and what was different this time

395
00:14:01.501 --> 00:14:03.567
was that we werein a post-Cold War world.

396
00:14:03.567 --> 00:14:05.367
Right.

397
00:14:05.367 --> 00:14:07.367
And Kosovo was about Europe, so ultimately you

398
00:14:07.367 --> 00:14:09.400
could get the Europeans to go along.

399
00:14:09.400 --> 00:14:11.234
Right.

400
00:14:11.234 --> 00:14:13.267
But Iraq was not about Europe and it was not

401
00:14:13.267 --> 00:14:15.367
about the Soviet Union, and I think that was

402
00:14:15.367 --> 00:14:17.834
the key gaffe, really.

403
00:14:17.834 --> 00:14:20.467
And we were at a time of certain hubris and

404
00:14:20.467 --> 00:14:23.234
arrogance in the sense that we could do it all because we had

405
00:14:23.234 --> 00:14:25.534
been successful in Kosovo and in Afghanistan.

406
00:14:25.534 --> 00:14:27.534
Well, my reading of American history is we were

407
00:14:27.534 --> 00:14:29.267
often in a period of hubris and arrogance, and this was one of

408
00:14:29.267 --> 00:14:30.834
those moments.

409
00:14:30.834 --> 00:14:32.501
Yes.

410
00:14:32.501 --> 00:14:34.267
Yes, exactly right.

411
00:14:34.267 --> 00:14:36.067
Yes.

412
00:14:36.067 --> 00:14:37.934
Suppose -- just one last hypothetical.

413
00:14:37.934 --> 00:14:40.300
Suppose we hadn't gone into Iraq and had gone into Afghanistan.

414
00:14:40.300 --> 00:14:42.567
Would we have wiped out al Qaeda?

415
00:14:42.567 --> 00:14:44.534
Well, I think the problem in Afghanistan

416
00:14:44.534 --> 00:14:46.501
preexisted the decision to go into Iraq, because we didn't

417
00:14:46.501 --> 00:14:48.501
send enough troops into Afghanistan.

418
00:14:48.501 --> 00:14:50.467
Exactly.

419
00:14:50.467 --> 00:14:52.200
And, you know, the whole business with Tora

420
00:14:52.200 --> 00:14:54.000
Bora and missing the opportunity --.

421
00:14:54.000 --> 00:14:55.901
If we had enough American troops

422
00:14:55.901 --> 00:14:57.801
he would be gone.

423
00:14:57.801 --> 00:14:59.467
Well, we can all say that.

424
00:14:59.467 --> 00:15:00.968
But I mean, it seems that long before we got into Iraq --

425
00:15:00.968 --> 00:15:02.634
Well, he obviously thought so.

426
00:15:02.634 --> 00:15:04.400
He said it.

427
00:15:04.400 --> 00:15:05.968
Right.

428
00:15:05.968 --> 00:15:07.634
So if -- you know, already we had under troop -- had too few

429
00:15:07.634 --> 00:15:09.167
troops in Afghanistan, even before we got into Iraq.

430
00:15:09.167 --> 00:15:10.801
Right.

431
00:15:10.801 --> 00:15:12.501
So it was the strategy that was wrong.

432
00:15:12.501 --> 00:15:14.067
OK.

433
00:15:14.067 --> 00:15:15.701
I still don't know -- before we go to the book, I still don't

434
00:15:15.701 --> 00:15:17.434
know how we make a decision if we have the resources --

435
00:15:17.434 --> 00:15:19.234
Yes.

436
00:15:19.234 --> 00:15:21.100
-- in the world after Iraq, and whatever

437
00:15:21.100 --> 00:15:22.734
prestige loss we have had, where we say regardless, the national

438
00:15:22.734 --> 00:15:24.200
interests, and the global interests, demands that we do

439
00:15:24.200 --> 00:15:25.834
something about, A, the Congo, or somewhere else.

440
00:15:25.834 --> 00:15:27.300
Yes.

441
00:15:27.300 --> 00:15:28.868
Well, look, I mean, we're --

442
00:15:28.868 --> 00:15:30.567
How do we make the decision?

443
00:15:30.567 --> 00:15:32.100
What's the test?

444
00:15:32.100 --> 00:15:33.734
We are facing one of those decisions right now.

445
00:15:33.734 --> 00:15:35.501
It may not -- it may not come to anything.

446
00:15:35.501 --> 00:15:37.067
Exactly.

447
00:15:37.067 --> 00:15:38.968
What if in Burma the generals simply refuse to

448
00:15:38.968 --> 00:15:40.634
allow -- and literally hundreds of thousands, if not millions,

449
00:15:40.634 --> 00:15:42.400
of people are going to die?

450
00:15:42.400 --> 00:15:44.501
I saw that the French foreign minister, Bernard Kouchner --

451
00:15:44.501 --> 00:15:46.400
Right.

452
00:15:46.400 --> 00:15:48.067
-- said we have to just go in any way.

453
00:15:48.067 --> 00:15:49.834
I can see that kind of decision being made.

454
00:15:49.834 --> 00:15:52.801
Maybe it won't happen --

455
00:15:52.801 --> 00:15:54.133
It would only be made if China and the United

456
00:15:54.133 --> 00:15:55.367
States would make it together.

457
00:15:55.367 --> 00:15:56.567
OK.

458
00:15:56.567 --> 00:15:57.701
And that brings us to this --

459
00:15:57.701 --> 00:15:59.901
All right. Go.

460
00:15:59.901 --> 00:16:00.934
OK.

461
00:16:00.934 --> 00:16:02.000
Because --

462
00:16:02.000 --> 00:16:03.634
Go ahead.

463
00:16:03.634 --> 00:16:05.434
Do you agree with the point?

464
00:16:05.434 --> 00:16:07.067
Won't do it unless China --

465
00:16:07.067 --> 00:16:08.534
Well, it's not inconceivable, but I'm assuming

466
00:16:08.534 --> 00:16:10.133
that because we so much don't want to have to do it and the

467
00:16:10.133 --> 00:16:13.334
Burmese --

468
00:16:13.334 --> 00:16:15.033
Well, we so much don't want to have to deal with

469
00:16:15.033 --> 00:16:16.701
China, if, in fact, they are opposed to doing it and they

470
00:16:16.701 --> 00:16:18.400
view it as their sphere of influence.

471
00:16:18.400 --> 00:16:20.067
But why is -- but this gets

472
00:16:20.067 --> 00:16:21.734
to a broader question

473
00:16:21.734 --> 00:16:24.200
which I think is worth talking about, because there has been a

474
00:16:24.200 --> 00:16:26.534
tremendous -- I mean yes, everybody acknowledges there's a

475
00:16:26.534 --> 00:16:28.901
great power competition of the kind we didn't anticipate

476
00:16:28.901 --> 00:16:31.200
before, but the other thing that is unanticipated -- it's why

477
00:16:31.200 --> 00:16:33.167
it's called "The Return of History" -- the end of history

478
00:16:33.167 --> 00:16:34.901
meant there was no ideological conflict, right?

479
00:16:34.901 --> 00:16:36.701
That is what Frank Fukuyama really meant by that.

480
00:16:36.701 --> 00:16:39.734
Right. Right.

481
00:16:39.734 --> 00:16:41.467
He wasn't saying anything simplistic about the

482
00:16:41.467 --> 00:16:43.234
end of history.

483
00:16:43.234 --> 00:16:44.834
Yes.

484
00:16:44.834 --> 00:16:46.534
And the West had prevailed, and therefore there was no conflict.

485
00:16:46.534 --> 00:16:48.334
Liberal democracy,

486
00:16:48.334 --> 00:16:50.167
there was no competitor.

487
00:16:50.167 --> 00:16:51.801
Well, now we see that that is maybe not so true.

488
00:16:51.801 --> 00:16:53.267
And we see the development of what people are calling the

489
00:16:53.267 --> 00:16:54.868
autocratic capitalist countries of Russia and China.

490
00:16:54.868 --> 00:16:56.567
Capitalism, yes.

491
00:16:56.567 --> 00:16:58.100
Economic growth, yes.

492
00:16:58.100 --> 00:16:59.734
But political liberalization, no.

493
00:16:59.734 --> 00:17:01.467
Real continuing strong autocracies.

494
00:17:01.467 --> 00:17:03.300
Why does this matter?

495
00:17:03.300 --> 00:17:05.467
It matters on issues like, what do you do about Burma?

496
00:17:05.467 --> 00:17:07.501
When the West looks at Burma, the West talks about, as the

497
00:17:07.501 --> 00:17:09.601
French foreign minister did, the responsibility to protect.

498
00:17:09.601 --> 00:17:11.534
We have an evolving view of international law which kind of

499
00:17:11.534 --> 00:17:13.801
breaks down sovereignty.

500
00:17:13.801 --> 00:17:16.367
It was the kind -- it was the view that got the West to go

501
00:17:16.367 --> 00:17:19.067
into Kosovo.

502
00:17:19.067 --> 00:17:21.367
Kosovo -- you know, Milosevic had not violated anybody.

503
00:17:21.367 --> 00:17:24.400
It was a violation of traditional law, but the West

504
00:17:24.400 --> 00:17:27.200
and the liberal world has an evolving sense based on ideas of

505
00:17:27.200 --> 00:17:30.434
human rights.

506
00:17:30.434 --> 00:17:33.167
Viewed from Moscow and Beijing, that is a disaster.

507
00:17:33.167 --> 00:17:35.434
What is Putin trying to do today?

508
00:17:35.434 --> 00:17:37.734
Because they are agnostic about human relations?

509
00:17:37.734 --> 00:17:39.968
On the contrary.

510
00:17:39.968 --> 00:17:41.901
Human rights.

511
00:17:41.901 --> 00:17:43.567
Because they want to build big walls of

512
00:17:43.567 --> 00:17:45.334
sovereignty to prevent liberal governments from intervening in

513
00:17:45.334 --> 00:17:47.167
their lives.

514
00:17:47.167 --> 00:17:49.033
Right.

515
00:17:49.033 --> 00:17:51.133
Here is China looking at the Burma situation,

516
00:17:51.133 --> 00:17:52.968
and having Tibet at the same time.

517
00:17:52.968 --> 00:17:54.601
They can't on the one hand say, yes, go ahead and intervene

518
00:17:54.601 --> 00:17:56.300
wherever you feel like it in these other places, but leave us

519
00:17:56.300 --> 00:17:58.100
alone on Tibet.

520
00:17:58.100 --> 00:18:00.033
They have a principle.

521
00:18:00.033 --> 00:18:02.133
They believe in national sovereignty.

522
00:18:02.133 --> 00:18:04.133
Putin has this concept -- I think you probably heard it --

523
00:18:04.133 --> 00:18:06.801
called Democratic sovereignty, or sovereign democracy.

524
00:18:06.801 --> 00:18:09.567
And what is really important to Putin is the

525
00:18:09.567 --> 00:18:12.667
sovereign part of it.

526
00:18:12.667 --> 00:18:16.133
He doesn't want the liberal West trying to spread its

527
00:18:16.133 --> 00:18:19.567
liberal contagion in Russia.

528
00:18:19.567 --> 00:18:22.667
We look back on things like the Orange Revolution in Ukraine,

529
00:18:22.667 --> 00:18:25.467
the Rose Revolution in Georgia, as great moments.

530
00:18:25.467 --> 00:18:27.834
When Putin -- when Moscow and Beijing look at those two --

531
00:18:27.834 --> 00:18:29.400
They're threatening.

532
00:18:29.400 --> 00:18:30.968
Not only are they threatening, they're seen as

533
00:18:30.968 --> 00:18:32.567
geopolitical threats.

534
00:18:32.567 --> 00:18:34.133
Somehow they are coming from

535
00:18:34.133 --> 00:18:37.601
outside with outside values.

536
00:18:37.601 --> 00:18:39.534
Exactly.

537
00:18:39.534 --> 00:18:41.968
People are saying, NATO is threatening -- Russia says NATO

538
00:18:41.968 --> 00:18:44.300
enlargement is threatening to Russia.

539
00:18:44.300 --> 00:18:46.567
Why is NATO enlargement threatening to Russia?

540
00:18:46.567 --> 00:18:48.434
Is NATO more dangerous to Russia today than it was 20 years ago,

541
00:18:48.434 --> 00:18:50.300
when Ronald Reagan was in power?

542
00:18:50.300 --> 00:18:52.167
So why do they say it?

543
00:18:52.167 --> 00:18:54.033
It's because it's expanding

544
00:18:54.033 --> 00:18:58.400
democracy toward their borders.

545
00:18:58.400 --> 00:19:00.534
Putin doesn't mind having autocratic

546
00:19:00.534 --> 00:19:02.801
governments on his borders.

547
00:19:02.801 --> 00:19:04.868
He gets nervous when they have Democratic governments that are

548
00:19:04.868 --> 00:19:06.934
inherently pro-western.

549
00:19:06.934 --> 00:19:09.000
What is the struggle with Georgia about?

550
00:19:09.000 --> 00:19:11.033
Partly, the current -- you know, the buildup of

551
00:19:11.033 --> 00:19:13.100
Russian troops in

552
00:19:13.100 --> 00:19:15.267
(INAUDIBLE) and all of that.

553
00:19:15.267 --> 00:19:17.601
Partly, it is geopolitical Russia reasserting its sphere of

554
00:19:17.601 --> 00:19:19.634
traditional interests.

555
00:19:19.634 --> 00:19:22.067
But partly, it's ideological.

556
00:19:22.067 --> 00:19:24.567
When Georgia had the Rose Revolution, it

557
00:19:24.567 --> 00:19:27.033
tilted toward the West.

558
00:19:27.033 --> 00:19:29.400
And both of these overlapping tensions I think are going to

559
00:19:29.400 --> 00:19:31.667
really characterize the international system.

560
00:19:31.667 --> 00:19:33.868
So what does it mean for us?

561
00:19:33.868 --> 00:19:36.000
What it means for us is that it doesn't mean --

562
00:19:36.000 --> 00:19:38.400
let me say what it doesn't mean.

563
00:19:38.400 --> 00:19:40.400
It does not mean a return to the Cold War.

564
00:19:40.400 --> 00:19:42.467
It doesn't mean everybody line up on one side or the other.

565
00:19:42.467 --> 00:19:45.133
We have a lot of conflicting interests and needs to get along

566
00:19:45.133 --> 00:19:47.634
with a lot of people.

567
00:19:47.634 --> 00:19:50.033
But it does many we have to go back to taking ideology

568
00:19:50.033 --> 00:19:52.234
seriously again, because the autocratic governments are

569
00:19:52.234 --> 00:19:54.467
thinking like autocracies.

570
00:19:54.467 --> 00:19:56.334
And we can't expect them not to.

571
00:19:56.334 --> 00:19:58.334
It's in their interest to do so.

572
00:19:58.334 --> 00:20:00.167
We are in the business of making the

573
00:20:00.167 --> 00:20:02.601
world safe for democracy.

574
00:20:02.601 --> 00:20:05.934
They're in the business of making the world

575
00:20:05.934 --> 00:20:09.100
safe for their autocracy.

576
00:20:09.100 --> 00:20:11.767
And this is going to lead to clashes like on Zimbabwe, Burma,

577
00:20:11.767 --> 00:20:14.367
Darfur, Iran, differences of opinion, and possibly even

578
00:20:14.367 --> 00:20:16.601
conflicts that are a little bit more frightening than that, as

579
00:20:16.601 --> 00:20:18.801
in Georgia.

580
00:20:18.801 --> 00:20:20.934
Take one aspect of Iran.

581
00:20:20.934 --> 00:20:23.033
Yes.

582
00:20:23.033 --> 00:20:24.868
Doesn't the United States and Russia have

583
00:20:24.868 --> 00:20:26.734
the same attitude about Iran developing nuclear weapons?

584
00:20:26.734 --> 00:20:28.400
I wouldn't say -- not quite.

585
00:20:28.400 --> 00:20:30.133
I mean --

586
00:20:30.133 --> 00:20:31.701
How is it different?

587
00:20:31.701 --> 00:20:33.367
I think --

588
00:20:33.367 --> 00:20:34.868
Putin is on record as saying

589
00:20:34.868 --> 00:20:36.567
he's against it.

590
00:20:36.567 --> 00:20:38.334
Of course he's on record saying he's against it,

591
00:20:38.334 --> 00:20:39.901
and he is against it.

592
00:20:39.901 --> 00:20:41.734
And I think all things being equal, he would like Iran not to

593
00:20:41.734 --> 00:20:43.367
have a nuclear weapon, because Iranian/Russian relations over

594
00:20:43.367 --> 00:20:45.100
time have not been so great.

595
00:20:45.100 --> 00:20:46.901
But the question is, why doesn't he do more to put more pressure

596
00:20:46.901 --> 00:20:48.834
on Iran?

597
00:20:48.834 --> 00:20:50.767
In terms of sanctions at the U.N.

598
00:20:50.767 --> 00:20:52.467
Security Council, places like that?

599
00:20:52.467 --> 00:20:54.234
In terms of not having all kinds of nuclear deal

600
00:20:54.234 --> 00:20:56.067
that they have got going with them.

601
00:20:56.067 --> 00:20:57.934
Right.

602
00:20:57.934 --> 00:20:59.501
Well, partly, some of it's just plain money.

603
00:20:59.501 --> 00:21:01.067
I mean, there is a lot of money to be made for Russia.

604
00:21:01.067 --> 00:21:02.634
Part of it is this ideological component.

605
00:21:02.634 --> 00:21:04.200
He doesn't want the liberal West to be able to

606
00:21:04.200 --> 00:21:05.767
impose its will on

607
00:21:05.767 --> 00:21:08.000
a country like Iran.

608
00:21:08.000 --> 00:21:10.200
And part of it is geopolitical.

609
00:21:10.200 --> 00:21:12.067
It serves Russia's interests for Iran to be a problem for the

610
00:21:12.067 --> 00:21:14.801
United States in the Middle East.

611
00:21:14.801 --> 00:21:17.334
We are back to that kind of game, I think.

612
00:21:17.334 --> 00:21:19.767
OK.

613
00:21:19.767 --> 00:21:21.801
Here is what I understand you are saying.

614
00:21:21.801 --> 00:21:23.601
So Russia and China are strong again and they believe in

615
00:21:23.601 --> 00:21:25.467
different values, they have a different system of government,

616
00:21:25.467 --> 00:21:27.334
and they are powerful.

617
00:21:27.334 --> 00:21:29.000
Right.

618
00:21:29.000 --> 00:21:30.501
Russia has regained a lot of its power, in

619
00:21:30.501 --> 00:21:32.133
part because of the price of energy, China, because of its

620
00:21:32.133 --> 00:21:33.567
economic growth.

621
00:21:33.567 --> 00:21:34.934
Right.

622
00:21:34.934 --> 00:21:36.200
And they both, especially China, are aggressive

623
00:21:36.200 --> 00:21:37.367
about relationships.

624
00:21:37.367 --> 00:21:38.767
Right.

625
00:21:38.767 --> 00:21:40.334
Without ideology.

626
00:21:40.334 --> 00:21:41.734
Right.

627
00:21:41.734 --> 00:21:43.300
So what do we need to do other than build up

628
00:21:43.300 --> 00:21:44.968
our relationships with people like India and Europe and Brazil

629
00:21:44.968 --> 00:21:46.467
and wherever else?

630
00:21:46.467 --> 00:21:47.834
Well, that's a real good start, I would say.

631
00:21:47.834 --> 00:21:49.367
I would say because that is not where we are now.

632
00:21:49.367 --> 00:21:51.033
I mean, look --

633
00:21:51.033 --> 00:21:52.767
No, it's true.

634
00:21:52.767 --> 00:21:54.334
I mean, one of the facts is, is that we have

635
00:21:54.334 --> 00:21:56.000
strengthened our relationship with India.

636
00:21:56.000 --> 00:21:58.133
I think that's one of the success stories

637
00:21:58.133 --> 00:22:00.334
of the Bush administration.

638
00:22:00.334 --> 00:22:02.701
But our relationship with Europe remains very, very complicated.

639
00:22:02.701 --> 00:22:05.267
Now, my guess is that over time, if Russia really starts to

640
00:22:05.267 --> 00:22:07.434
continues to move in this direction -- and that's an "if"

641
00:22:07.434 --> 00:22:09.334
-- but if it does continue, I think Europe and the United

642
00:22:09.334 --> 00:22:11.200
States will be sort of thrown together more

643
00:22:11.200 --> 00:22:13.100
than they have been.

644
00:22:13.100 --> 00:22:14.968
They have to work together

645
00:22:14.968 --> 00:22:16.868
on energy and security.

646
00:22:16.868 --> 00:22:18.601
They have to work together very much on energy

647
00:22:18.601 --> 00:22:20.167
security, and on security.

648
00:22:20.167 --> 00:22:23.567
Right. Right.

649
00:22:23.567 --> 00:22:25.133
Both.

650
00:22:25.133 --> 00:22:27.300
And they also need to just start standing together.

651
00:22:27.300 --> 00:22:29.234
When Europe and the United States stand together, like most

652
00:22:29.234 --> 00:22:31.367
recently on Kosovo, Russia basically has to back down.

653
00:22:31.367 --> 00:22:33.567
Where they show divisions, as they did recently on Georgia,

654
00:22:33.567 --> 00:22:35.901
what was the next move?

655
00:22:35.901 --> 00:22:37.868
You know, at the Bucharest summit, the United States wanted

656
00:22:37.868 --> 00:22:40.133
to bring Georgia into NATO, sooner.

657
00:22:40.133 --> 00:22:42.067
France and Germany opposed it, they said it's

658
00:22:42.067 --> 00:22:44.167
going to anger Russia.

659
00:22:44.167 --> 00:22:46.000
OK, so they didn't do it, but here is Russia once more putting

660
00:22:46.000 --> 00:22:49.334
pressure on Georgia.

661
00:22:49.334 --> 00:22:52.934
So I think a unified front by the

662
00:22:52.934 --> 00:22:56.734
democracies will mean something.

663
00:22:56.734 --> 00:23:00.334
Let me go back to '91, when -- the Iraqi war,

664
00:23:00.334 --> 00:23:03.567
Desert Storm, and also the end of the Soviet empire.

665
00:23:03.567 --> 00:23:06.734
And take the space between then and the space between the

666
00:23:06.734 --> 00:23:10.300
invasion of Iraq, 2003, 16 years, I think, about.

667
00:23:10.300 --> 00:23:13.901
All right?

668
00:23:13.901 --> 00:23:16.834
People say it was a giant opportunity for American foreign

669
00:23:16.834 --> 00:23:19.300
policy to do things differently and engage with the world in a

670
00:23:19.300 --> 00:23:21.634
very positive way, because we were the sole superpower.

671
00:23:21.634 --> 00:23:23.901
Yes.

672
00:23:23.901 --> 00:23:26.334
Did we do it?

673
00:23:26.334 --> 00:23:28.400
And if we didn't do it, why not?

674
00:23:28.400 --> 00:23:32.367
I think some of what happened was unavoidable.

675
00:23:32.367 --> 00:23:36.100
I mean, I think -- and this is what I am trying

676
00:23:36.100 --> 00:23:39.467
to say in the book.

677
00:23:39.467 --> 00:23:42.601
What we thought was perhaps a new era of one power or no more

678
00:23:42.601 --> 00:23:45.234
great power competition, in retrospect it looks like it was

679
00:23:45.234 --> 00:23:47.701
just a moment of transition.

680
00:23:47.701 --> 00:23:50.300
And there was nothing we could do

681
00:23:50.300 --> 00:23:52.501
to avoid the transition?

682
00:23:52.501 --> 00:23:54.634
Were we going to stop China from rising?

683
00:23:54.634 --> 00:23:56.567
Were we going to stop Russia from getting back

684
00:23:56.567 --> 00:23:58.567
on its feet eventually?

685
00:23:58.567 --> 00:24:00.567
Especially with oil at $100 a barrel?

686
00:24:00.567 --> 00:24:03.267
I mean, I think not.

687
00:24:03.267 --> 00:24:05.868
And it's important to realize this -- and I think this is

688
00:24:05.868 --> 00:24:08.334
something that people don't quite understand.

689
00:24:08.334 --> 00:24:10.400
Our complex relations not only with the Europeans, but also

690
00:24:10.400 --> 00:24:12.501
with the Russians and Chinese, did not begin

691
00:24:12.501 --> 00:24:15.100
after the Iraq war.

692
00:24:15.100 --> 00:24:17.634
They began in the 1990s.

693
00:24:17.634 --> 00:24:20.100
And as I was saying before, a turning point for both Russia

694
00:24:20.100 --> 00:24:23.167
and China was the Kosovo war, which they saw as, you know --

695
00:24:23.167 --> 00:24:26.734
It's still a problem between us and Russia.

696
00:24:26.734 --> 00:24:30.234
Sam Huntington wrote an article in "Foreign

697
00:24:30.234 --> 00:24:33.367
Affairs" in 1999 in which he called the United States the

698
00:24:33.367 --> 00:24:36.434
lonely superpower, talked about the arrogance and hubris of the

699
00:24:36.434 --> 00:24:39.634
United States, that the rest of the world is coming to fear and

700
00:24:39.634 --> 00:24:42.334
dislike and loathe the United States.

701
00:24:42.334 --> 00:24:44.701
1999 he wrote that.

702
00:24:44.701 --> 00:24:46.834
The French foreign minister, Huber Vedrin, called the United

703
00:24:46.834 --> 00:24:49.000
States the hyperpower.

704
00:24:49.000 --> 00:24:50.868
Right.

705
00:24:50.868 --> 00:24:52.767
When was that? 1998.

706
00:24:52.767 --> 00:24:56.200
OK?

707
00:24:56.200 --> 00:24:58.000
So a lot of this stuff was already beginning.

708
00:24:58.000 --> 00:24:59.868
Now, you know, people like --

709
00:24:59.868 --> 00:25:01.767
It was two years before Bush came into power --

710
00:25:01.767 --> 00:25:03.434
Two years before George Bush.

711
00:25:03.434 --> 00:25:04.934
-- end of the Clinton administration.

712
00:25:04.934 --> 00:25:06.334
Before September 11th.

713
00:25:06.334 --> 00:25:07.868
Before Iraq.

714
00:25:07.868 --> 00:25:10.801
Right. Right.

715
00:25:10.801 --> 00:25:12.467
So this was -- these kind of

716
00:25:12.467 --> 00:25:13.968
things were evolving.

717
00:25:13.968 --> 00:25:15.601
Now, what could we have done about it?

718
00:25:15.601 --> 00:25:17.334
I think, in fact, the Clinton administration was

719
00:25:17.334 --> 00:25:19.100
on the right course.

720
00:25:19.100 --> 00:25:20.934
It just may not have been possible.

721
00:25:20.934 --> 00:25:22.801
It was important to us that Russia move in a more Democratic

722
00:25:22.801 --> 00:25:24.734
direction, and it was unfortunate that Russia has

723
00:25:24.734 --> 00:25:26.400
become more autocratic, because even as great powers rise, I

724
00:25:26.400 --> 00:25:28.300
think democracies have an easier time relating to each other and

725
00:25:28.300 --> 00:25:30.234
dealing with that rise than if you have a democracy on one side

726
00:25:30.234 --> 00:25:31.868
and an autocracy on the other.

727
00:25:31.868 --> 00:25:33.534
John McCain made this speech of

728
00:25:33.534 --> 00:25:35.200
which it is said,

729
00:25:35.200 --> 00:25:36.734
lots of people, that you sort of were the

730
00:25:36.734 --> 00:25:38.300
organizing -- you know,

731
00:25:38.300 --> 00:25:39.834
you brought together ideas and a lot of other things.

732
00:25:39.834 --> 00:25:41.400
I know that speechwriters do not like to take

733
00:25:41.400 --> 00:25:42.934
credit because it's

734
00:25:42.934 --> 00:25:44.868
not sort of attractive, you know.

735
00:25:44.868 --> 00:25:46.801
Right so far?

736
00:25:46.801 --> 00:25:53.701
I think.

737
00:25:53.701 --> 00:25:57.534
Because you (INAUDIBLE), and you don't want

738
00:25:57.534 --> 00:26:00.968
-- including George Shultz and other people.

739
00:26:00.968 --> 00:26:03.901
Tell me what John McCain really believes about Iraq and troops

740
00:26:03.901 --> 00:26:06.801
remaining there.

741
00:26:06.801 --> 00:26:09.567
This interview he did with me, as you know, is frequently

742
00:26:09.567 --> 00:26:12.300
quoted about South Korea.

743
00:26:12.300 --> 00:26:15.701
Yes.

744
00:26:15.701 --> 00:26:19.234
Look, what John McCain has said and what I am absolutely

745
00:26:19.234 --> 00:26:22.834
confident he believes is that he doesn't want to keep American

746
00:26:22.834 --> 00:26:26.334
troops in Iraq one minute longer than is necessary.

747
00:26:26.334 --> 00:26:29.667
The "100 years" comment, I think, as you know, has been,

748
00:26:29.667 --> 00:26:32.901
you know, distorted beyond all recognition.

749
00:26:32.901 --> 00:26:36.234
I think what he was saying was that, as in other situations --

750
00:26:36.234 --> 00:26:39.534
you know, Americans have troops deployed in places I don't think

751
00:26:39.534 --> 00:26:42.534
the American people even know they are there, and they have

752
00:26:42.534 --> 00:26:45.601
been there for decades, usually as a kind of last step of

753
00:26:45.601 --> 00:26:48.834
maintaining some kind of peace that has been established.

754
00:26:48.834 --> 00:26:51.801
John McCain's position is he does not want U.S.

755
00:26:51.801 --> 00:26:54.234
troops in combat positions any longer than necessary.

756
00:26:54.234 --> 00:26:56.868
So if you need to have a few troops someplace ultimately as

757
00:26:56.868 --> 00:26:59.067
part of an overall settlement, that is what

758
00:26:59.067 --> 00:27:01.234
he is talking about.

759
00:27:01.234 --> 00:27:03.133
But he wants to get troops out as quickly as is

760
00:27:03.133 --> 00:27:04.834
responsibly possible.

761
00:27:04.834 --> 00:27:06.567
And the key word here is responsibly.

762
00:27:06.567 --> 00:27:09.834
Is responsibly. OK.

763
00:27:09.834 --> 00:27:11.334
But my question is, how do you know that?

764
00:27:11.334 --> 00:27:13.434
I mean, when is that point?

765
00:27:13.434 --> 00:27:15.567
And to raise the Obama/Clinton point and others --

766
00:27:15.567 --> 00:27:17.434
Yes.

767
00:27:17.434 --> 00:27:19.334
-- you know, if there is not some -- what is

768
00:27:19.334 --> 00:27:21.100
their decree at the urgency on the part of the

769
00:27:21.100 --> 00:27:23.000
Iraqis to do that?

770
00:27:23.000 --> 00:27:24.934
That's the point that Obama makes consistently.

771
00:27:24.934 --> 00:27:27.000
Yes.

772
00:27:27.000 --> 00:27:28.767
Unless you set some time out there, knowing

773
00:27:28.767 --> 00:27:30.801
that the circumstances might change, things may change,

774
00:27:30.801 --> 00:27:32.801
unless you set a time out there, they're not going to have the

775
00:27:32.801 --> 00:27:34.901
same incentive to do it.

776
00:27:34.901 --> 00:27:36.734
I think that that -- you know, that is one of

777
00:27:36.734 --> 00:27:38.601
those statements that makes perfect logical sense, but in

778
00:27:38.601 --> 00:27:40.501
reality I am not sure it has been

779
00:27:40.501 --> 00:27:42.133
demonstrated to be that way.

780
00:27:42.133 --> 00:27:44.434
There have been times when the Iraqis were watching the

781
00:27:44.434 --> 00:27:46.701
American debate and could see that their

782
00:27:46.701 --> 00:27:49.267
situation was in peril.

783
00:27:49.267 --> 00:27:51.667
For instances, the last time we got together was in late 2006.

784
00:27:51.667 --> 00:27:54.400
And when I said I thought the U.S.

785
00:27:54.400 --> 00:27:56.834
was going to send more troops in, you justifiably laughed at

786
00:27:56.834 --> 00:27:58.968
me, as I recall, because it didn't steam the remotest bit

787
00:27:58.968 --> 00:28:01.400
possible in December of 2006, that Bush was going to turn

788
00:28:01.400 --> 00:28:03.801
around and send more troops in.

789
00:28:03.801 --> 00:28:06.133
And that was the Iraqis' view.

790
00:28:06.133 --> 00:28:08.467
Was that helping them kind of get their act together?

791
00:28:08.467 --> 00:28:10.701
The first thing that needed to be done for the Iraqis to get

792
00:28:10.701 --> 00:28:13.200
their act together is provide them basic security.

793
00:28:13.200 --> 00:28:15.334
And I think that that is happening, and I think we are

794
00:28:15.334 --> 00:28:17.167
going to see political progress.

795
00:28:17.167 --> 00:28:19.567
Now, the Iraqis also need to feel pressure, I think there is

796
00:28:19.567 --> 00:28:22.067
no question about it.

797
00:28:22.067 --> 00:28:24.767
They need to feel pressure.

798
00:28:24.767 --> 00:28:27.334
And it's a fine calibration whether you are pulling troops

799
00:28:27.334 --> 00:28:30.234
or whether you are reducing your presence in such a way that

800
00:28:30.234 --> 00:28:33.334
isn't leading to the place all blowing up again, but is also

801
00:28:33.334 --> 00:28:36.467
putting enough pressure on them to get their act together.

802
00:28:36.467 --> 00:28:39.267
The fact is, Iraqi forces are now in much greater shape in

803
00:28:39.267 --> 00:28:42.067
terms of being able to act than they were before.

804
00:28:42.067 --> 00:28:44.968
I do think we are moving toward Iraqi forces taking over more

805
00:28:44.968 --> 00:28:47.667
and more responsibilities.

806
00:28:47.667 --> 00:28:50.167
The actions which, you know, were so derided when they began

807
00:28:50.167 --> 00:28:52.601
against the Sadras (ph) have been pretty successful in Basra,

808
00:28:52.601 --> 00:28:54.934
and I think we are going to see more of that.

809
00:28:54.934 --> 00:28:57.167
He's still a potent force.

810
00:28:57.167 --> 00:28:59.834
He's still a potent force, but I mean, you

811
00:28:59.834 --> 00:29:02.501
know -- and by the way, the political benefits that have

812
00:29:02.501 --> 00:29:05.234
come from Maliki taking on the Shia militias in terms of Sunnis

813
00:29:05.234 --> 00:29:07.367
seeing that it's just not about fighting them having enormous.

814
00:29:07.367 --> 00:29:09.467
So, you know, we can can't -- obviously we'd like to --

815
00:29:09.467 --> 00:29:11.601
How have they been enormous in terms of seeing

816
00:29:11.601 --> 00:29:13.734
him take on unsuccessfully, in a sense, but the

817
00:29:13.734 --> 00:29:15.868
pure fact that he

818
00:29:15.868 --> 00:29:18.400
did it you are saying had more value than anything else.

819
00:29:18.400 --> 00:29:20.534
Whether it's successful or not.

820
00:29:20.534 --> 00:29:22.634
Well, first of all, it's been more successful

821
00:29:22.634 --> 00:29:24.734
-- I think it's been more successful than a

822
00:29:24.734 --> 00:29:26.534
lot of people realize.

823
00:29:26.534 --> 00:29:28.400
I think there has been some success, and you can see in the

824
00:29:28.400 --> 00:29:30.567
behavior of Sadr that he is trying to figure out a way to

825
00:29:30.567 --> 00:29:32.501
survive in this whole thing.

826
00:29:32.501 --> 00:29:34.200
But, yes, the fact that you have Maliki taking on the Shia

827
00:29:34.200 --> 00:29:35.968
militias was a demonstration to the Sunnis that this is not just

828
00:29:35.968 --> 00:29:39.234
a big Shia plot --

829
00:29:39.234 --> 00:29:41.000
My impression is he did it on his own without

830
00:29:41.000 --> 00:29:42.567
sort of --

831
00:29:42.567 --> 00:29:44.267
Oh, there's no question, which caused a lot of

832
00:29:44.267 --> 00:29:45.767
consternation, et cetera, et cetera.

833
00:29:45.767 --> 00:29:47.133
Right.

834
00:29:47.133 --> 00:29:48.701
But, you know, I -- Is that good

835
00:29:48.701 --> 00:29:49.868
news or bad news?

836
00:29:49.868 --> 00:29:52.334
Exactly.

837
00:29:52.334 --> 00:29:54.701
I mean, that he did it on his own, maybe that's

838
00:29:54.701 --> 00:29:57.934
a good sign.

839
00:29:57.934 --> 00:30:01.200
Are you convinced that if you withdrew American

840
00:30:01.200 --> 00:30:04.167
troops over a period of 16 months, say, that it would be

841
00:30:04.167 --> 00:30:07.434
catastrophic, and that it would lead to some variation of a

842
00:30:07.434 --> 00:30:10.100
civil war, and therefore America would have to go back in?

843
00:30:10.100 --> 00:30:12.634
Is that the position you have?

844
00:30:12.634 --> 00:30:15.033
Well, I don't want to say 16

845
00:30:15.033 --> 00:30:17.100
months or not 16 months.

846
00:30:17.100 --> 00:30:19.133
That's just one date because --

847
00:30:19.133 --> 00:30:21.200
Because the question is,

848
00:30:21.200 --> 00:30:23.200
what would be happening?

849
00:30:23.200 --> 00:30:25.000
You would have to looking at circumstances.

850
00:30:25.000 --> 00:30:26.801
Yes, but what does that mean, though?

851
00:30:26.801 --> 00:30:28.701
I mean, a period -- so if you had 100,000 troops in America by

852
00:30:28.701 --> 00:30:30.334
the end of 2009, 100,000 --

853
00:30:30.334 --> 00:30:32.534
Well, I can answer your question without

854
00:30:32.534 --> 00:30:35.267
getting into all of these things.

855
00:30:35.267 --> 00:30:38.000
OK.

856
00:30:38.000 --> 00:30:40.400
I mean, if we were to withdraw in such a way

857
00:30:40.400 --> 00:30:42.968
that the -- that -- I would say, first and foremost, that al

858
00:30:42.968 --> 00:30:46.100
Qaeda in Iraq would be able to reconstitute itself into a

859
00:30:46.100 --> 00:30:48.734
formidable force.

860
00:30:48.734 --> 00:30:50.601
That's before you even get to sectarian conflict, because

861
00:30:50.601 --> 00:30:52.434
after all, al Qaeda in Iraq is one of the stimuli

862
00:30:52.434 --> 00:30:54.300
to sectarian conflict.

863
00:30:54.300 --> 00:30:56.167
They are the ones who attack the Shia and hope

864
00:30:56.167 --> 00:30:58.000
that the Shia will

865
00:30:58.000 --> 00:31:00.167
then attack the Sunni and get that whole thing started.

866
00:31:00.167 --> 00:31:02.267
That's what we -- that's what's been demonstrated.

867
00:31:02.267 --> 00:31:04.534
Well, that is what happened.

868
00:31:04.534 --> 00:31:06.634
That is what happened.

869
00:31:06.634 --> 00:31:09.434
If you pulled out in such a way that they were able to

870
00:31:09.434 --> 00:31:12.601
reconstitute themselves in a serious fashion, I think we

871
00:31:12.601 --> 00:31:16.100
would have to go back in.

872
00:31:16.100 --> 00:31:18.968
And this is why even, it seems to me, the proposals being set

873
00:31:18.968 --> 00:31:21.767
forth by Barack Obama, who I have a lot of respect for, even

874
00:31:21.767 --> 00:31:24.634
he feels that we need to keep something there to deal with

875
00:31:24.634 --> 00:31:27.133
this problem.

876
00:31:27.133 --> 00:31:29.667
And I think that at the end of the day, the analysis that he'll

877
00:31:29.667 --> 00:31:32.067
get from the military folks is that, if you do this too fast,

878
00:31:32.067 --> 00:31:34.434
it's going to fall apart.

879
00:31:34.434 --> 00:31:36.367
And I will tell you something, I don't want to be the man

880
00:31:36.367 --> 00:31:38.334
sitting in the White House if he inherits an Iraq

881
00:31:38.334 --> 00:31:40.267
that is kind of

882
00:31:40.267 --> 00:31:42.234
moving, you know, slowly, but in a certain

883
00:31:42.234 --> 00:31:44.200
correct direction, and

884
00:31:44.200 --> 00:31:46.634
he is the one who watches it all fall apart, and has al Qaeda in

885
00:31:46.634 --> 00:31:48.434
Iraq reconstituted.

886
00:31:48.434 --> 00:31:50.200
That is not going to be a fun thing for the next president.

887
00:31:50.200 --> 00:31:52.000
In the end, do you think there is that much

888
00:31:52.000 --> 00:31:53.801
difference in the foreign policy beliefs of

889
00:31:53.801 --> 00:31:57.534
Barack Obama and John McCain?

890
00:31:57.534 --> 00:31:59.267
Well, I think --

891
00:31:59.267 --> 00:32:00.801
What are they?

892
00:32:00.801 --> 00:32:02.467
Well, I think probably, but, you know, you

893
00:32:02.467 --> 00:32:03.968
have to say --

894
00:32:03.968 --> 00:32:05.834
Probably?

895
00:32:05.834 --> 00:32:07.601
How are they different in terms of their view

896
00:32:07.601 --> 00:32:09.200
of the Soviet Union?

897
00:32:09.200 --> 00:32:10.667
How are they different in their view of China?

898
00:32:10.667 --> 00:32:12.934
I mean, Obama wouldn't be willing to talk more

899
00:32:12.934 --> 00:32:15.901
than McCain would?

900
00:32:15.901 --> 00:32:18.968
Is that a position you think separates them?

901
00:32:18.968 --> 00:32:22.100
Well, I think that Obama's apparent belief

902
00:32:22.100 --> 00:32:24.968
that it is worth talking to anybody is probably not the view

903
00:32:24.968 --> 00:32:27.634
that John McCain would have.

904
00:32:27.634 --> 00:32:29.901
And I would say people rightly question whether, you know, at

905
00:32:29.901 --> 00:32:32.067
this moment talking to Ahmadinejad is the right

906
00:32:32.067 --> 00:32:34.200
tactical thing to do, let alone setting aside whether it's the

907
00:32:34.200 --> 00:32:36.067
right moral thing to do.

908
00:32:36.067 --> 00:32:37.968
You know, do you want to strengthen him within the --

909
00:32:37.968 --> 00:32:39.634
Let's change the question.

910
00:32:39.634 --> 00:32:41.501
OK.

911
00:32:41.501 --> 00:32:43.400
Does it make sense to talk to

912
00:32:43.400 --> 00:32:45.267
the Iranian government?

913
00:32:45.267 --> 00:32:47.133
You know, I think -- and this

914
00:32:47.133 --> 00:32:49.033
is where, you know,

915
00:32:49.033 --> 00:32:51.534
John McCain may not -- doesn't agree necessarily -- I think at

916
00:32:51.534 --> 00:32:54.334
some point we may find ourselves in a position when you might

917
00:32:54.334 --> 00:32:56.634
want to do that.

918
00:32:56.634 --> 00:32:59.000
But I think at this moment, there isn't a great deal -- we

919
00:32:59.000 --> 00:33:01.300
have a very sensible position, agreed with the Europeans, by

920
00:33:01.300 --> 00:33:03.734
the way.

921
00:33:03.734 --> 00:33:06.267
The United States, this administration, Condi Rice,

922
00:33:06.267 --> 00:33:08.667
everybody else has made it perfectly clear the United

923
00:33:08.667 --> 00:33:11.000
States is ready to sit down with Iran, the deal is on the table.

924
00:33:11.000 --> 00:33:13.000
All they have to do is live up to the commitment to cease

925
00:33:13.000 --> 00:33:14.767
enrichment, and they can have that deal.

926
00:33:14.767 --> 00:33:16.601
But one question is, do the Iranians really

927
00:33:16.601 --> 00:33:18.200
want to talk to us?

928
00:33:18.200 --> 00:33:19.901
That's another question.

929
00:33:19.901 --> 00:33:21.400
Some people would argue the following --

930
00:33:21.400 --> 00:33:22.868
Yes.

931
00:33:22.868 --> 00:33:24.367
-- the deal doesn't have to be on the table.

932
00:33:24.367 --> 00:33:25.834
Just talk and maybe you will get a deal to

933
00:33:25.834 --> 00:33:27.300
come out of it, rather

934
00:33:27.300 --> 00:33:29.267
than saying this is the only deal we're going to accept, and

935
00:33:29.267 --> 00:33:31.634
unless you accept this deal, let's not talk.

936
00:33:31.634 --> 00:33:34.234
Well, it's not the whole deal to accept.

937
00:33:34.234 --> 00:33:36.834
There is one small detail, which is that the international

938
00:33:36.834 --> 00:33:38.734
community, as represented by United States and the European

939
00:33:38.734 --> 00:33:40.601
Union, has demanded that Iran, as a precondition before these

940
00:33:40.601 --> 00:33:42.501
kind of talks, cease enriching uranium.

941
00:33:42.501 --> 00:33:44.367
And there were long negotiations where the

942
00:33:44.367 --> 00:33:46.267
Europeans thought they

943
00:33:46.267 --> 00:33:48.367
were making progress.

944
00:33:48.367 --> 00:33:50.367
I think that's still a reasonable position.

945
00:33:50.367 --> 00:33:52.200
But that's different --

946
00:33:52.200 --> 00:33:53.834
Do you think it stopped them from getting closer

947
00:33:53.834 --> 00:33:55.300
to building a nuclear weapon?

948
00:33:55.300 --> 00:33:56.667
Obviously not.

949
00:33:56.667 --> 00:33:57.934
Obviously not.

950
00:33:57.934 --> 00:33:59.133
Obviously not.

951
00:33:59.133 --> 00:34:00.534
Exactly.

952
00:34:00.534 --> 00:34:03.734
But I also --

953
00:34:03.734 --> 00:34:05.501
-- talking to talk to them in a different way?

954
00:34:05.501 --> 00:34:07.300
Possibly, but I doubt it.

955
00:34:07.300 --> 00:34:08.901
Look, I mean at the end of the day, I think that --

956
00:34:08.901 --> 00:34:10.601
Obviously not, and I doubt it.

957
00:34:10.601 --> 00:34:12.400
-- the Iranian -- well, we know

958
00:34:12.400 --> 00:34:13.834
what hasn't happened.

959
00:34:13.834 --> 00:34:15.400
I can't tell you with certainty what wouldn't have happened.

960
00:34:15.400 --> 00:34:19.367
I mean, I don't live in an alternative reality here.

961
00:34:19.367 --> 00:34:21.634
But, you know, I think what we know is that

962
00:34:21.634 --> 00:34:23.834
Iran's feeling -- the Iranian government's feeling that it has

963
00:34:23.834 --> 00:34:25.734
a profound interest in having a nuclear weapon.

964
00:34:25.734 --> 00:34:27.634
I don't think that is without a doubt, and I think it is going

965
00:34:27.634 --> 00:34:29.601
to be hard to convince them otherwise, no

966
00:34:29.601 --> 00:34:31.534
matter what you do.

967
00:34:31.534 --> 00:34:33.267
Do you think in the end they're going to have a

968
00:34:33.267 --> 00:34:34.801
nuclear weapon and all of this talk about it's unacceptable is

969
00:34:34.801 --> 00:34:36.434
simply going to go out the window?

970
00:34:36.434 --> 00:34:38.200
Well, I --

971
00:34:38.200 --> 00:34:40.000
Tell me.

972
00:34:40.000 --> 00:34:41.601
I mean, increasingly, a number of people think that they've got

973
00:34:41.601 --> 00:34:43.300
it and they are going to get it.

974
00:34:43.300 --> 00:34:45.067
And there's not -- you know, all that we try it is

975
00:34:45.067 --> 00:34:46.667
not going to do.

976
00:34:46.667 --> 00:34:48.367
And nobody is going to go in there and blow them up.

977
00:34:48.367 --> 00:34:49.868
I -- you want to know the honest answer?

978
00:34:49.868 --> 00:34:51.501
Yes.

979
00:34:51.501 --> 00:34:53.234
The honest answer is I don't know.

980
00:34:53.234 --> 00:34:55.033
Me either.

981
00:34:55.033 --> 00:34:56.634
I don't know that any president might not decide

982
00:34:56.634 --> 00:34:58.067
that that's not going to happen on their watch.

983
00:34:58.067 --> 00:34:59.667
And I mean Democrat, Republican, you name it.

984
00:34:59.667 --> 00:35:01.367
Right.

985
00:35:01.367 --> 00:35:03.133
And you don't know.

986
00:35:03.133 --> 00:35:04.701
And you don't know.

987
00:35:04.701 --> 00:35:06.367
And that's why I ask, because, in the end, are

988
00:35:06.367 --> 00:35:09.267
they going to have the same positions?

989
00:35:09.267 --> 00:35:10.801
When you talk about Barack

990
00:35:10.801 --> 00:35:12.434
Obama and -- I'm sorry.

991
00:35:12.434 --> 00:35:13.934
No, you go.

992
00:35:13.934 --> 00:35:15.567
I am sometimes reminded of the

993
00:35:15.567 --> 00:35:17.267
Eisenhower/Kennedy -- and I don't know whether people have

994
00:35:17.267 --> 00:35:19.067
made this point.

995
00:35:19.067 --> 00:35:20.634
You know, I'm sure people have made this point before, is that,

996
00:35:20.634 --> 00:35:22.100
you know, here you had Eisenhower, who was the military

997
00:35:22.100 --> 00:35:23.667
man who had nothing to prove when he was in office about

998
00:35:23.667 --> 00:35:25.100
whether he was a tough guy.

999
00:35:25.100 --> 00:35:26.434
He won the Second World War.

1000
00:35:26.434 --> 00:35:27.701
He didn't need to prove anything to anybody.

1001
00:35:27.701 --> 00:35:28.868
Right. Exactly.

1002
00:35:28.868 --> 00:35:31.100
Exactly.

1003
00:35:31.100 --> 00:35:32.033
It bona fides him pretty god.

1004
00:35:32.033 --> 00:35:33.467
Here was Jack Kennedy, a brilliant man,

1005
00:35:33.467 --> 00:35:35.367
brilliant politician, but young, inexperienced,

1006
00:35:35.367 --> 00:35:37.167
and feeling inexperienced.

1007
00:35:37.167 --> 00:35:39.367
And one of the results is that he went off to the summit with

1008
00:35:39.367 --> 00:35:41.501
Khrushchev and he came back feeling like, I looked weak,

1009
00:35:41.501 --> 00:35:43.601
that wasn't good.

1010
00:35:43.601 --> 00:35:45.701
There are people who think that is why he went ahead with the

1011
00:35:45.701 --> 00:35:47.934
Bay of Pigs, there are people who think that that led him to

1012
00:35:47.934 --> 00:35:50.634
have to prove that he was tough.

1013
00:35:50.634 --> 00:35:53.267
So, you know, even if you have these two guys, one of them

1014
00:35:53.267 --> 00:35:55.767
looks like he is more of a military guy, and the other one

1015
00:35:55.767 --> 00:35:58.267
looks like he wants to talk, the dynamic when a guy is president

1016
00:35:58.267 --> 00:36:00.667
is -- or a woman who is president is totally -- is

1017
00:36:00.667 --> 00:36:03.300
totally different.

1018
00:36:03.300 --> 00:36:05.901
That's a very interesting conversation, why he

1019
00:36:05.901 --> 00:36:08.434
went into the Bay of Pigs.

1020
00:36:08.434 --> 00:36:10.667
I'm not sure it was because he felt like he was weak at Vienna.

1021
00:36:10.667 --> 00:36:12.567
Let me end with this -- this is the book, "The Return of History

1022
00:36:12.567 --> 00:36:14.267
and the End of Dreams." Think about that.

1023
00:36:14.267 --> 00:36:15.801
Here is what else he says.

1024
00:36:15.801 --> 00:36:17.200
"The U.S.

1025
00:36:17.200 --> 00:36:18.901
has to make itself a good U.S.

1026
00:36:18.901 --> 00:36:21.133
international citizen.

1027
00:36:21.133 --> 00:36:23.434
The U.S.

1028
00:36:23.434 --> 00:36:25.834
needs to listen and be willing to be persuaded."

1029
00:36:25.834 --> 00:36:28.300
So there's a whole range in this book of ideas that have to

1030
00:36:28.300 --> 00:36:30.934
do with this world that we now live in.

1031
00:36:30.934 --> 00:36:33.300
We cannot change our history.

1032
00:36:33.300 --> 00:36:37.033
We can only change our future.

1033
00:36:37.033 --> 00:36:40.300
"The Return of History and the End of Dreams," Robert Kagan.

1034
00:36:40.300 --> 00:36:45.968
SEGMENTLS2

1035
00:36:45.968 --> 00:36:48.567
Parag Khanna is here.

1036
00:36:48.567 --> 00:36:51.434
He directs the Global Governance Initiative at the

1037
00:36:51.434 --> 00:36:54.267
New America Foundation.

1038
00:36:54.267 --> 00:36:56.834
He has a new book called "The Second World: Empires and

1039
00:36:56.834 --> 00:36:59.434
Influence in the New Global Order." It is among a series of

1040
00:36:59.434 --> 00:37:01.634
recent books examining the role of America and the changing

1041
00:37:01.634 --> 00:37:03.767
geopolitical landscape.

1042
00:37:03.767 --> 00:37:05.901
I am pleased to have him here at this table for

1043
00:37:05.901 --> 00:37:08.734
the few time. Welcome.

1044
00:37:08.734 --> 00:37:11.901
Thank you, Charlie.

1045
00:37:11.901 --> 00:37:14.501
Tell me about how this came into being, A.

1046
00:37:14.501 --> 00:37:17.200
And B, how did you go about this process of research,

1047
00:37:17.200 --> 00:37:19.767
information, you know, analysis that led you to put it together

1048
00:37:19.767 --> 00:37:22.067
in this book?

1049
00:37:22.067 --> 00:37:24.067
So, in 2005, I was a fellow at Brookings, and

1050
00:37:24.067 --> 00:37:26.067
probably the youngest fellow there, and certainly the only

1051
00:37:26.067 --> 00:37:28.033
one who hadn't written a book.

1052
00:37:28.033 --> 00:37:30.167
Right.

1053
00:37:30.167 --> 00:37:32.434
And that didn't fail to dawn on me.

1054
00:37:32.434 --> 00:37:34.400
So I decided I need to cook up something.

1055
00:37:34.400 --> 00:37:36.567
And I dusted off an idea I had for a travel program for

1056
00:37:36.567 --> 00:37:38.968
television, maybe even the Travel Channel, and that was

1057
00:37:38.968 --> 00:37:41.367
called "The Second World."

1058
00:37:41.367 --> 00:37:43.968
I wanted to have a smart look at these middle tier countries

1059
00:37:43.968 --> 00:37:46.534
that are strategically important but don't get enough coverage.

1060
00:37:46.534 --> 00:37:49.267
But of course I had to make it foreign policy relevant.

1061
00:37:49.267 --> 00:37:51.567
So I crafted this notion, and off I went.

1062
00:37:51.567 --> 00:37:53.868
But at the same time, I was reading all of the literature on

1063
00:37:53.868 --> 00:37:55.868
how America will still be prominent in the 21st century,

1064
00:37:55.868 --> 00:37:57.601
or dominant, rather.

1065
00:37:57.601 --> 00:37:59.167
Europe is setting the global standards, China is taking over

1066
00:37:59.167 --> 00:38:00.467
the world.

1067
00:38:00.467 --> 00:38:02.334
Which is it?

1068
00:38:02.334 --> 00:38:04.767
We live we live on one planet.

1069
00:38:04.767 --> 00:38:06.934
Right.

1070
00:38:06.934 --> 00:38:09.501
So I needed to reconcile these, and so I chose

1071
00:38:09.501 --> 00:38:12.200
to travel to these countries and evaluate how Chinese, European

1072
00:38:12.200 --> 00:38:14.801
and American power compete.

1073
00:38:14.801 --> 00:38:17.000
So I set off for about two years and spent four to six months in

1074
00:38:17.000 --> 00:38:19.501
each of the regions that form the backbone of the book --

1075
00:38:19.501 --> 00:38:21.701
Eastern Europe, Central Asia, South America, the Middle East,

1076
00:38:21.701 --> 00:38:23.734
and Southeast Asia.

1077
00:38:23.734 --> 00:38:26.200
And I went one by one and I kind of tried to tell their

1078
00:38:26.200 --> 00:38:28.734
story from the inside out.

1079
00:38:28.734 --> 00:38:30.868
How do they view the world?

1080
00:38:30.868 --> 00:38:33.167
What do they want to be in terms of, who do they want to ally

1081
00:38:33.167 --> 00:38:35.434
with, where do they see themselves, how do they relate

1082
00:38:35.434 --> 00:38:37.501
to globalization?

1083
00:38:37.501 --> 00:38:39.300
All of these questions are the ones that I set out to answer,

1084
00:38:39.300 --> 00:38:41.534
but you have to do it by traveling.

1085
00:38:41.534 --> 00:38:43.567
It is the only way.

1086
00:38:43.567 --> 00:38:45.801
OK.

1087
00:38:45.801 --> 00:38:47.734
So was there an emerging central theme that came about while you

1088
00:38:47.734 --> 00:38:49.801
were on this trip?

1089
00:38:49.801 --> 00:38:52.000
It was the self-importance of

1090
00:38:52.000 --> 00:38:54.267
second world countries.

1091
00:38:54.267 --> 00:38:56.267
Most of the books that you are talking about that are about

1092
00:38:56.267 --> 00:38:58.567
America and the world are about us, and they assume that the

1093
00:38:58.567 --> 00:39:00.901
world is either pro-American or anti-American.

1094
00:39:00.901 --> 00:39:03.367
It's not nearly that simple.

1095
00:39:03.367 --> 00:39:05.567
They are not necessarily laudatory of us.

1096
00:39:05.567 --> 00:39:07.734
I mean, they may very well be saying that the 21st century is

1097
00:39:07.734 --> 00:39:09.634
going to be about America's decline, you know, and the rise

1098
00:39:09.634 --> 00:39:11.267
of Asia, say.

1099
00:39:11.267 --> 00:39:12.767
But is that enough?

1100
00:39:12.767 --> 00:39:14.133
It's not nearly enough.

1101
00:39:14.133 --> 00:39:15.400
No.

1102
00:39:15.400 --> 00:39:16.634
It's too simple, too.

1103
00:39:16.634 --> 00:39:17.868
Exactly.

1104
00:39:17.868 --> 00:39:19.100
You have to understand the world from the

1105
00:39:19.100 --> 00:39:22.200
points of view of these countries.

1106
00:39:22.200 --> 00:39:23.934
You have to go there, you have to say this is what Kazakhstan

1107
00:39:23.934 --> 00:39:25.968
wants to be.

1108
00:39:25.968 --> 00:39:28.000
Not it wants to be like America, it's what does a Kazakh world

1109
00:39:28.000 --> 00:39:29.801
view look like?

1110
00:39:29.801 --> 00:39:31.901
And the same thing goes for China, India, Europe, Libya,

1111
00:39:31.901 --> 00:39:33.734
Brazil, in each of those countries.

1112
00:39:33.734 --> 00:39:35.367
OK.

1113
00:39:35.367 --> 00:39:37.834
Let's figure out who the first world is, who the second world

1114
00:39:37.834 --> 00:39:40.167
is, and who the third world is.

1115
00:39:40.167 --> 00:39:41.534
How do you determine?

1116
00:39:41.534 --> 00:39:42.934
The first world you could say is the

1117
00:39:42.934 --> 00:39:44.300
>>OECD countries: Right.

1118
00:39:44.300 --> 00:39:45.667
The third world you could say is the least

1119
00:39:45.667 --> 00:39:47.067
developed countries as the World Banks defines

1120
00:39:47.067 --> 00:39:48.434
them, and that was

1121
00:39:48.434 --> 00:39:50.634
about 48, 50 countries.

1122
00:39:50.634 --> 00:39:52.634
In between, you have got 100 more which are

1123
00:39:52.634 --> 00:39:54.667
hanging the balance.

1124
00:39:54.667 --> 00:39:56.934
In my view, they're not halfway between third

1125
00:39:56.934 --> 00:39:59.434
world and first world.

1126
00:39:59.434 --> 00:40:02.067
They're both at the same time.

1127
00:40:02.067 --> 00:40:04.567
In each second world country you find development,

1128
00:40:04.567 --> 00:40:06.701
modernization, wealth, prosperity, connectivity.

1129
00:40:06.701 --> 00:40:08.534
You also find poverty, backwardness, underdevelopment.

1130
00:40:08.534 --> 00:40:10.434
These things coexist within the country.

1131
00:40:10.434 --> 00:40:12.334
OK.

1132
00:40:12.334 --> 00:40:14.267
So where is Russia?

1133
00:40:14.267 --> 00:40:16.200
Russia is a second world country.

1134
00:40:16.200 --> 00:40:18.167
Why is Russia second world?

1135
00:40:18.167 --> 00:40:20.133
Russia has immense disparities.

1136
00:40:20.133 --> 00:40:23.000
It's a member of G-8.

1137
00:40:23.000 --> 00:40:25.400
The G-8 is a particular kind of club that

1138
00:40:25.400 --> 00:40:27.701
attempts to shape, you know, multilateral, financial order.

1139
00:40:27.701 --> 00:40:29.901
But it isn't internally a first world developed modern society.

1140
00:40:29.901 --> 00:40:31.834
Not in its entirety.

1141
00:40:31.834 --> 00:40:33.501
Where is Abu Dhabi?

1142
00:40:33.501 --> 00:40:36.767
Well, the Emirates as a whole are second

1143
00:40:36.767 --> 00:40:39.734
world, as I describe them.

1144
00:40:39.734 --> 00:40:42.434
Yes.

1145
00:40:42.434 --> 00:40:44.968
You have a very small indigenous population and

1146
00:40:44.968 --> 00:40:47.133
a very large imported third world labor force that aren't

1147
00:40:47.133 --> 00:40:49.234
citizens, but they make up the majority of the population, and

1148
00:40:49.234 --> 00:40:51.067
they of course live in third world conditions.

1149
00:40:51.067 --> 00:40:52.701
China?

1150
00:40:52.701 --> 00:40:54.434
Second world, but still a superpower.

1151
00:40:54.434 --> 00:40:58.067
Right. India?

1152
00:40:58.067 --> 00:40:59.701
Third world, attempting to be second world.

1153
00:40:59.701 --> 00:41:01.434
It isn't so much about the static categories.

1154
00:41:01.434 --> 00:41:03.601
It's about the competition, the tension, the

1155
00:41:03.601 --> 00:41:05.501
movement, the ambition.

1156
00:41:05.501 --> 00:41:07.200
It's the second world countries using their oil to gain our --

1157
00:41:07.200 --> 00:41:09.033
obviously our investment and money from us, and invest in

1158
00:41:09.033 --> 00:41:11.000
whatever they want.

1159
00:41:11.000 --> 00:41:12.734
Right.

1160
00:41:12.734 --> 00:41:14.868
It's that ambition to get ahead at our

1161
00:41:14.868 --> 00:41:16.801
expense which is the tension between second world countries

1162
00:41:16.801 --> 00:41:19.033
and first world countries.

1163
00:41:19.033 --> 00:41:21.167
Tell me how you see America's future

1164
00:41:21.167 --> 00:41:23.234
in the next century.

1165
00:41:23.234 --> 00:41:25.534
And where do we start from and what is the challenge and what

1166
00:41:25.534 --> 00:41:28.367
is necessary from our leaders?

1167
00:41:28.367 --> 00:41:30.734
I want to tell you something.

1168
00:41:30.734 --> 00:41:33.300
You will read a lot of studies and books that will say in the

1169
00:41:33.300 --> 00:41:35.467
year 2050, China will have X size economy, India will have X

1170
00:41:35.467 --> 00:41:37.601
size economy.

1171
00:41:37.601 --> 00:41:40.000
Do not believe any prognosis that goes

1172
00:41:40.000 --> 00:41:42.501
beyond five to 10 years.

1173
00:41:42.501 --> 00:41:44.501
I spent a lot of time in a lot of different countries, and I

1174
00:41:44.501 --> 00:41:46.868
cannot tell you if five years from now they will have made it

1175
00:41:46.868 --> 00:41:49.067
and be stable or will have fallen apart, and that is the

1176
00:41:49.067 --> 00:41:51.267
tension in the second world.

1177
00:41:51.267 --> 00:41:53.467
America, also you can't predict that far ahead where we are

1178
00:41:53.467 --> 00:41:55.667
going to be, whether it is going to be the

1179
00:41:55.667 --> 00:41:57.834
next American century,

1180
00:41:57.834 --> 00:42:00.901
or whether, because of the liabilities that we have in our

1181
00:42:00.901 --> 00:42:03.434
economic system, our military overexpenditure, and the like,

1182
00:42:03.434 --> 00:42:05.901
and our domestic constraints in terms of the need to reinvest in

1183
00:42:05.901 --> 00:42:08.234
our infrastructure, and to integrate

1184
00:42:08.234 --> 00:42:10.667
immigrants and so forth.

1185
00:42:10.667 --> 00:42:12.934
Whether we will be able to sustain the global role that

1186
00:42:12.934 --> 00:42:15.734
many people just assume that we will.

1187
00:42:15.734 --> 00:42:19.400
So I won't say 100 years from now where we will be.

1188
00:42:19.400 --> 00:42:22.534
It's not possible to say that.

1189
00:42:22.534 --> 00:42:25.667
Is there an inevitable realization that

1190
00:42:25.667 --> 00:42:28.934
America's place in the greater scheme of things will be less

1191
00:42:28.934 --> 00:42:32.100
because others have risen?

1192
00:42:32.100 --> 00:42:34.734
Many people in the last five years,

1193
00:42:34.734 --> 00:42:37.200
particularly since the Iraq war, have said our

1194
00:42:37.200 --> 00:42:39.534
influence has declined.

1195
00:42:39.534 --> 00:42:41.801
Right.

1196
00:42:41.801 --> 00:42:44.000
But they haven't gone the additional step of

1197
00:42:44.000 --> 00:42:45.901
saying there are alternative -- alternative models out there, a

1198
00:42:45.901 --> 00:42:47.868
Chinese model, which countries in the Arab world and Southeast

1199
00:42:47.868 --> 00:42:50.100
Asia are seeking to emulate -- economic reform without

1200
00:42:50.100 --> 00:42:52.267
political reform.

1201
00:42:52.267 --> 00:42:54.534
There is a European model, transnational governance,

1202
00:42:54.534 --> 00:42:57.167
parliamentary democracy, welfare states.

1203
00:42:57.167 --> 00:42:59.667
Those are rival models.

1204
00:42:59.667 --> 00:43:02.200
And so I think the next step, what I try to get at in this

1205
00:43:02.200 --> 00:43:04.601
book, is to say, how are those models competing with us?

1206
00:43:04.601 --> 00:43:07.067
And there hasn't been enough of that.

1207
00:43:07.067 --> 00:43:09.534
But it is not inevitable that the Americas

1208
00:43:09.534 --> 00:43:11.767
place in the world will decline?

1209
00:43:11.767 --> 00:43:14.000
It is inevitable that we are experiencing a

1210
00:43:14.000 --> 00:43:16.133
relative decline as others rise, absolutely.

1211
00:43:16.133 --> 00:43:18.000
What we need to work on --

1212
00:43:18.000 --> 00:43:19.934
But it's not a zero sum gain.

1213
00:43:19.934 --> 00:43:21.934
It is not a zero sum game.

1214
00:43:21.934 --> 00:43:24.234
What we want is an equilibrium.

1215
00:43:24.234 --> 00:43:26.701
What we want is a world in which each responsibility is

1216
00:43:26.701 --> 00:43:29.167
commensurate with our abilities.

1217
00:43:29.167 --> 00:43:31.567
We cannot be global cop, the world policeman, intervene

1218
00:43:31.567 --> 00:43:33.868
everywhere, police all the ceilings (ph).

1219
00:43:33.868 --> 00:43:36.067
We are not trying to do that now, are we?

1220
00:43:36.067 --> 00:43:38.000
But many people of course believe that we should

1221
00:43:38.000 --> 00:43:39.934
be, and they believe in American primacy.

1222
00:43:39.934 --> 00:43:42.033
Many people within the United States?

1223
00:43:42.033 --> 00:43:44.434
Exactly.

1224
00:43:44.434 --> 00:43:46.300
In terms of our political leadership or in terms

1225
00:43:46.300 --> 00:43:48.234
of our pundits, or who?

1226
00:43:48.234 --> 00:43:50.200
I would say it's a mix of a neocon intellectual

1227
00:43:50.200 --> 00:43:52.400
kind of class.

1228
00:43:52.400 --> 00:43:54.667
It's obviously people within various agencies of the

1229
00:43:54.667 --> 00:43:57.300
government and in the White House.

1230
00:43:57.300 --> 00:44:00.434
That guard may pass from the scene.

1231
00:44:00.434 --> 00:44:03.033
And of course we may have a new Democratic leadership.

1232
00:44:03.033 --> 00:44:05.634
It doesn't mean that they will not be still thinking in the

1233
00:44:05.634 --> 00:44:08.601
mindset of wanting to restore America's greatness or primacy

1234
00:44:08.601 --> 00:44:11.367
in a certain way.

1235
00:44:11.367 --> 00:44:14.467
That I do not believe is a healthy approach.

1236
00:44:14.467 --> 00:44:17.534
We need to look at division of labor -- what can we cooperate

1237
00:44:17.534 --> 00:44:20.100
with Europeans, Chinese, Russians, Indians?

1238
00:44:20.100 --> 00:44:22.667
And what we can do to contribute to common goals that we may not

1239
00:44:22.667 --> 00:44:25.133
necessarily define ourselves so that we

1240
00:44:25.133 --> 00:44:27.701
are not doing everything?

1241
00:44:27.701 --> 00:44:29.834
Here is what I sense in terms of both people --

1242
00:44:29.834 --> 00:44:32.000
most people, the majority.

1243
00:44:32.000 --> 00:44:34.167
It is that they see the challenge ahead for America,

1244
00:44:34.167 --> 00:44:36.300
they understand the difficulties that have come

1245
00:44:36.300 --> 00:44:38.467
out of the war in

1246
00:44:38.467 --> 00:44:40.601
Iraq, and their recognition is that America needs to and has

1247
00:44:40.601 --> 00:44:42.701
learned that it has to exist in a multicultural world.

1248
00:44:42.701 --> 00:44:44.534
What about how to do it?

1249
00:44:44.534 --> 00:44:46.434
Yes.

1250
00:44:46.434 --> 00:44:48.334
How do achieve democratization

1251
00:44:48.334 --> 00:44:50.400
in the Middle East.

1252
00:44:50.400 --> 00:44:52.167
I got to conferences where Americans sit around for two

1253
00:44:52.167 --> 00:44:54.100
days, and at the end of the day say, well, we have had a very

1254
00:44:54.100 --> 00:44:56.434
hard time and we failed a democracy promotion in the

1255
00:44:56.434 --> 00:44:58.434
Middle East.

1256
00:44:58.434 --> 00:45:00.200
Maybe we should look at Europe, but then they run out of time to

1257
00:45:00.200 --> 00:45:02.267
discuss the European model for democracy promotion, the ways in

1258
00:45:02.267 --> 00:45:04.300
which --

1259
00:45:04.300 --> 00:45:06.067
But wait.

1260
00:45:06.067 --> 00:45:07.901
What is the European model for democracy promotion in the

1261
00:45:07.901 --> 00:45:09.534
Middle East, and how is it different from

1262
00:45:09.534 --> 00:45:10.968
the American model?

1263
00:45:10.968 --> 00:45:12.334
It's most certainly different.

1264
00:45:12.334 --> 00:45:13.901
OK.

1265
00:45:13.901 --> 00:45:15.601
How is it?

1266
00:45:15.601 --> 00:45:17.367
That was my question.

1267
00:45:17.367 --> 00:45:19.167
Europea political parties and NGOs work

1268
00:45:19.167 --> 00:45:21.033
more with developing grassroots democratic parties, training of

1269
00:45:21.033 --> 00:45:22.734
justices, civic actors, things like this.

1270
00:45:22.734 --> 00:45:24.634
They put a lot more of their funding into that.

1271
00:45:24.634 --> 00:45:26.300
We put quite a bit of our money into -- just take obviously to

1272
00:45:26.300 --> 00:45:28.133
the perfect example of Egypt.

1273
00:45:28.133 --> 00:45:30.000
A lot more of the money into the federal

1274
00:45:30.000 --> 00:45:32.033
system, into the leadership.

1275
00:45:32.033 --> 00:45:34.467
We talk about democratization, but then of course we are

1276
00:45:34.467 --> 00:45:36.567
backing the presidential leader.

1277
00:45:36.567 --> 00:45:38.400
We have a presidential system in the United States.

1278
00:45:38.400 --> 00:45:40.267
That is not the best model for strongman regimes

1279
00:45:40.267 --> 00:45:42.234
in the Arab world.

1280
00:45:42.234 --> 00:45:43.968
They already have that.

1281
00:45:43.968 --> 00:45:45.501
But stop then.

1282
00:45:45.501 --> 00:45:47.567
Let's take about Egypt, for example.

1283
00:45:47.567 --> 00:45:49.634
Sure.

1284
00:45:49.634 --> 00:45:51.667
All right.

1285
00:45:51.667 --> 00:45:53.701
Tell me what the British model is with respect to -- or the

1286
00:45:53.701 --> 00:45:55.701
French model with respect to Egypt.

1287
00:45:55.701 --> 00:45:57.133
Do they support the Muslim Brotherhood there?

1288
00:45:57.133 --> 00:45:58.534
They talk to the Muslim Brotherhood, which we

1289
00:45:58.534 --> 00:45:59.934
have taken a long time to even, you know, consider doing.

1290
00:45:59.934 --> 00:46:01.334
But there's more of an awareness of

1291
00:46:01.334 --> 00:46:02.734
that today, I

1292
00:46:02.734 --> 00:46:04.267
think --

1293
00:46:04.267 --> 00:46:05.901
Of course.

1294
00:46:05.901 --> 00:46:07.300
-- in terms of American political thought.

1295
00:46:07.300 --> 00:46:08.801
We need to --

1296
00:46:08.801 --> 00:46:10.267
There's a more appreciation of the power of the

1297
00:46:10.267 --> 00:46:11.767
Muslim Brotherhood.

1298
00:46:11.767 --> 00:46:13.267
Exactly.

1299
00:46:13.267 --> 00:46:14.767
But why were we not aware all along?

1300
00:46:14.767 --> 00:46:16.400
Because we refused to talk to them, the same way we refused to

1301
00:46:16.400 --> 00:46:18.133
talk to Hamas.

1302
00:46:18.133 --> 00:46:19.667
But they took power anyway.

1303
00:46:19.667 --> 00:46:21.067
Foreign policy --

1304
00:46:21.067 --> 00:46:22.634
Well, refused to talk to the

1305
00:46:22.634 --> 00:46:24.300
opponents of the shah.

1306
00:46:24.300 --> 00:46:26.300
Right.

1307
00:46:26.300 --> 00:46:28.300
What we need to do is to play all sides within countries and

1308
00:46:28.300 --> 00:46:30.300
be accepting of whoever does come to power, because we need

1309
00:46:30.300 --> 00:46:32.834
to be friendly and have some kind of relationship, productive

1310
00:46:32.834 --> 00:46:35.267
relationship with whoever it is.

1311
00:46:35.267 --> 00:46:37.334
Ignoring them will not make them go away.

1312
00:46:37.334 --> 00:46:39.133
Go back to Russia, which is sort of the

1313
00:46:39.133 --> 00:46:41.000
leading second world country, yes?

1314
00:46:41.000 --> 00:46:44.100
Right. Yes.

1315
00:46:44.100 --> 00:46:45.467
In terms of resources, in terms of size, in

1316
00:46:45.467 --> 00:46:46.968
terms of military.

1317
00:46:46.968 --> 00:46:48.634
Absolutely.

1318
00:46:48.634 --> 00:46:50.667
OK.

1319
00:46:50.667 --> 00:46:52.834
Now, what's Russia's geopolitical objective now?

1320
00:46:52.834 --> 00:46:55.567
Right now it wants to restore its status as a

1321
00:46:55.567 --> 00:46:58.534
respected Eurasian power on both sides.

1322
00:46:58.534 --> 00:47:01.701
So it's a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which

1323
00:47:01.701 --> 00:47:04.701
is a rather dynamic multilateral sort of NATO of the East, some

1324
00:47:04.701 --> 00:47:07.734
people call it, together with China and the stans (ph).

1325
00:47:07.734 --> 00:47:10.367
It also, of course, wants to not be bullied by NATO and the

1326
00:47:10.367 --> 00:47:12.601
European Union and be respected by western Europe.

1327
00:47:12.601 --> 00:47:14.767
So Russia is an enigma, of course, as Churchill said.

1328
00:47:14.767 --> 00:47:19.834
But because it straddles --

1329
00:47:19.834 --> 00:47:22.100
Right.

1330
00:47:22.100 --> 00:47:24.033
It needs to be thought of -- its strategy needs to be though of

1331
00:47:24.033 --> 00:47:25.734
not just with respect to us, but with respect to Asia,

1332
00:47:25.734 --> 00:47:28.067
particularly China as well.

1333
00:47:28.067 --> 00:47:30.601
OK.

1334
00:47:30.601 --> 00:47:33.100
I'm sure you saw this.

1335
00:47:33.100 --> 00:47:35.701
Andre Cherney wrote in "The New York Sun" on March 31, 2008,

1336
00:47:35.701 --> 00:47:38.234
"Because for all its admirable qualities, there is a central

1337
00:47:38.234 --> 00:47:41.133
contradiction at the core of the second world.

1338
00:47:41.133 --> 00:47:44.033
(INAUDIBLE) see the broad sweep of history when assessing

1339
00:47:44.033 --> 00:47:47.067
nations around the world, he sees America only through the

1340
00:47:47.067 --> 00:47:50.467
lens of the present moment, as a wounded hyperpower.

1341
00:47:50.467 --> 00:47:54.067
Like the handwringers of the late 1970s who could not imagine

1342
00:47:54.067 --> 00:47:57.200
a resurgent America during the mealy-mouthed malaise-filled

1343
00:47:57.200 --> 00:48:00.534
Carter presidency, Mr. Khanna presents America only as it is,

1344
00:48:00.534 --> 00:48:04.100
overextended and resented, and he simply assumes that this is

1345
00:48:04.100 --> 00:48:07.267
how it must remain."

1346
00:48:07.267 --> 00:48:09.901
I do not rule out hope, renewal, all of those

1347
00:48:09.901 --> 00:48:12.133
things that people talk about when they talk about how America

1348
00:48:12.133 --> 00:48:14.300
can be great again, be respected again.

1349
00:48:14.300 --> 00:48:18.300
Right. Right.

1350
00:48:18.300 --> 00:48:20.767
(INAUDIBLE) with allies again.

1351
00:48:20.767 --> 00:48:23.567
I never rule out those things.

1352
00:48:23.567 --> 00:48:26.133
All of those things are possible.

1353
00:48:26.133 --> 00:48:28.868
But the comparison to those in the past who were declinists is

1354
00:48:28.868 --> 00:48:31.534
not valid because the material distribution of power in the

1355
00:48:31.534 --> 00:48:34.067
world is so different today.

1356
00:48:34.067 --> 00:48:37.167
China really is a superpower.

1357
00:48:37.167 --> 00:48:40.000
Japan wasn't necessarily.

1358
00:48:40.000 --> 00:48:42.634
India is powerful, Russia is powerful.

1359
00:48:42.634 --> 00:48:44.834
China -- what is the definition of a superpower?

1360
00:48:44.834 --> 00:48:47.033
A superpower is that empire or state or entity

1361
00:48:47.033 --> 00:48:48.901
that affects the decisions and can affect events all over the

1362
00:48:48.901 --> 00:48:50.567
world simultaneously.

1363
00:48:50.567 --> 00:48:52.067
How man superpowers are there?

1364
00:48:52.067 --> 00:48:53.434
Three.

1365
00:48:53.434 --> 00:48:54.968
Europe being one?

1366
00:48:54.968 --> 00:48:56.601
Absolutely.

1367
00:48:56.601 --> 00:48:58.334
OK.

1368
00:48:58.334 --> 00:48:59.868
But how do you make Europe a superpower?

1369
00:48:59.868 --> 00:49:01.534
Because Europe has --

1370
00:49:01.534 --> 00:49:03.267
I mean, does Europe act independently?

1371
00:49:03.267 --> 00:49:05.100
I mean, does it act as a unit?

1372
00:49:05.100 --> 00:49:06.934
It does in some ways.

1373
00:49:06.934 --> 00:49:09.033
Not in militarily, but --

1374
00:49:09.033 --> 00:49:10.834
Not necessarily, but sometimes.

1375
00:49:10.834 --> 00:49:12.701
But it acts economically more and more as a unit, and you are

1376
00:49:12.701 --> 00:49:14.367
aware of how they punish us in trade disputes

1377
00:49:14.367 --> 00:49:16.100
on a regular basis.

1378
00:49:16.100 --> 00:49:17.667
Their outward investment is far greater than that

1379
00:49:17.667 --> 00:49:19.334
of the United States.

1380
00:49:19.334 --> 00:49:20.868
By not allowing American companies to do

1381
00:49:20.868 --> 00:49:22.501
business, is what they do.

1382
00:49:22.501 --> 00:49:23.968
Among other things.

1383
00:49:23.968 --> 00:49:25.567
Yes.

1384
00:49:25.567 --> 00:49:27.267
They also outmaneuver American companies

1385
00:49:27.267 --> 00:49:28.801
in a lot of ways.

1386
00:49:28.801 --> 00:49:30.434
And they are a greater investor overseas.

1387
00:49:30.434 --> 00:49:32.167
They give more development assistance

1388
00:49:32.167 --> 00:49:33.734
on the whole overseas.

1389
00:49:33.734 --> 00:49:35.133
They import more goods from other countries overseas.

1390
00:49:35.133 --> 00:49:36.701
They have a tighter trade relationship with

1391
00:49:36.701 --> 00:49:41.767
China than the U.S. does.

1392
00:49:41.767 --> 00:49:44.300
What has actually brought the U.S.

1393
00:49:44.300 --> 00:49:46.534
and the EU closer together recently is the fact that the trade

1394
00:49:46.534 --> 00:49:48.734
deficit Europe has with China has approached or exceeded what we

1395
00:49:48.734 --> 00:49:50.968
have with China.

1396
00:49:50.968 --> 00:49:53.167
What is the best, other than your book, the most

1397
00:49:53.167 --> 00:49:55.400
influential sort of either writer or event -- event is too

1398
00:49:55.400 --> 00:49:59.200
easy -- writer or speech that is influencing -- that you think

1399
00:49:59.200 --> 00:50:02.701
had profound influence on the ideas we are discussing or your

1400
00:50:02.701 --> 00:50:05.567
own thinking?

1401
00:50:05.567 --> 00:50:08.000
In my own thinking, probably Robert Kaplan

1402
00:50:08.000 --> 00:50:10.501
has had a lot of influence, Brzezinski has

1403
00:50:10.501 --> 00:50:12.634
had a lot of influence.

1404
00:50:12.634 --> 00:50:14.734
Right.

1405
00:50:14.734 --> 00:50:16.834
They do look at what other countries are doing

1406
00:50:16.834 --> 00:50:18.634
on their own.

1407
00:50:18.634 --> 00:50:20.501
I base a lot of the theory in this book and even some of the

1408
00:50:20.501 --> 00:50:22.133
travel on the great British historian Arnold Toynbee --

1409
00:50:22.133 --> 00:50:23.567
Right.

1410
00:50:23.567 --> 00:50:25.067
-- who pointed out that every empire believes

1411
00:50:25.067 --> 00:50:26.601
in its own exceptionalism.

1412
00:50:26.601 --> 00:50:28.200
Right.

1413
00:50:28.200 --> 00:50:30.133
Yes, there is the possibility

1414
00:50:30.133 --> 00:50:32.501
of renewal of America.

1415
00:50:32.501 --> 00:50:34.534
But believe me, there is a European sense of

1416
00:50:34.534 --> 00:50:36.567
exceptionalism, that they do it right and have the better way.

1417
00:50:36.567 --> 00:50:38.601
There is a growing sense of Chinese

1418
00:50:38.601 --> 00:50:40.400
exceptionalism and nationalism.

1419
00:50:40.400 --> 00:50:41.968
But do you think that the French and the Germans

1420
00:50:41.968 --> 00:50:43.434
think of themselves the same way, as first Europeans?

1421
00:50:43.434 --> 00:50:45.000
No, they don't.

1422
00:50:45.000 --> 00:50:46.667
I know.

1423
00:50:46.667 --> 00:50:48.200
That's my point.

1424
00:50:48.200 --> 00:50:49.567
But increasably the next generation --

1425
00:50:49.567 --> 00:50:51.100
But they have an organization that works that

1426
00:50:51.100 --> 00:50:52.501
way, the European Union.

1427
00:50:52.501 --> 00:50:54.067
Yes.

1428
00:50:54.067 --> 00:50:55.734
Remember, their passports are European passports.

1429
00:50:55.734 --> 00:50:57.467
They do not deny --

1430
00:50:57.467 --> 00:50:59.300
And their currency is European.

1431
00:50:59.300 --> 00:51:01.133
-- that they are citizens of Europe.

1432
00:51:01.133 --> 00:51:02.868
And increasingly they realize that they will be far more

1433
00:51:02.868 --> 00:51:04.601
effective together through the European Union.

1434
00:51:04.601 --> 00:51:06.334
Remember how far the organization has come.

1435
00:51:06.334 --> 00:51:08.033
Speak to me about American

1436
00:51:08.033 --> 00:51:09.767
exceptionalism though.

1437
00:51:09.767 --> 00:51:11.834
I mean, define it for me and tell me why you don't think it's

1438
00:51:11.834 --> 00:51:14.067
any more -- is a real idea.

1439
00:51:14.067 --> 00:51:16.000
It is not that I don't think it's real.

1440
00:51:16.000 --> 00:51:17.634
OK.

1441
00:51:17.634 --> 00:51:19.234
It's that I don't think that it is unique.

1442
00:51:19.234 --> 00:51:20.868
Right.

1443
00:51:20.868 --> 00:51:22.501
And therefore, it is logically

1444
00:51:22.501 --> 00:51:24.100
not compatible with

1445
00:51:24.100 --> 00:51:25.968
the idea that others have of themselves, which is

1446
00:51:25.968 --> 00:51:29.868
increasingly as exceptional superpowers or empires.

1447
00:51:29.868 --> 00:51:32.000
So American exceptionalism is no different

1448
00:51:32.000 --> 00:51:34.133
than, say, the French believing that somehow there are certain

1449
00:51:34.133 --> 00:51:36.534
things unique about the French history and the French nature?

1450
00:51:36.534 --> 00:51:38.834
The argument of this book is that you have to

1451
00:51:38.834 --> 00:51:41.033
prove it if you are exceptional.

1452
00:51:41.033 --> 00:51:42.968
If you are better, if you have a better model, if you offer the

1453
00:51:42.968 --> 00:51:44.968
most to foreign citizens, the most hope --

1454
00:51:44.968 --> 00:51:47.000
Has the United States proven it?

1455
00:51:47.000 --> 00:51:49.100
Not lately.

1456
00:51:49.100 --> 00:51:50.934
And do we have the resource to prove it again when we want to,

1457
00:51:50.934 --> 00:51:52.834
when we have the next president?

1458
00:51:52.834 --> 00:51:54.734
I don't know that we have those resources, or if we even have

1459
00:51:54.734 --> 00:51:56.667
the right plan.

1460
00:51:56.667 --> 00:51:58.701
What resources don't we have?

1461
00:51:58.701 --> 00:52:00.501
We are not committing the kind of money to

1462
00:52:00.501 --> 00:52:02.334
foreign assistance and to smart foreign assistance, to the

1463
00:52:02.334 --> 00:52:04.367
so-called transformational diplomacy decline I

1464
00:52:04.367 --> 00:52:06.267
just talked about.

1465
00:52:06.267 --> 00:52:08.167
Is China doing that, or is China simply making

1466
00:52:08.167 --> 00:52:10.033
-- buying energy from around the world?

1467
00:52:10.033 --> 00:52:11.934
It's buying a lot of energy.

1468
00:52:11.934 --> 00:52:14.167
It's investing a lot in

1469
00:52:14.167 --> 00:52:16.167
infrastructure in foreign countries.

1470
00:52:16.167 --> 00:52:18.167
It's inviting their leadership and middle tier bureaucrats to

1471
00:52:18.167 --> 00:52:20.234
come and train in public administration in China, and

1472
00:52:20.234 --> 00:52:22.067
teaching them Chinese.

1473
00:52:22.067 --> 00:52:24.133
Europe is doing similar kinds of things.

1474
00:52:24.133 --> 00:52:26.434
There are more Chinese students, in fact, in Europe than there

1475
00:52:26.434 --> 00:52:28.834
are in the United States.

1476
00:52:28.834 --> 00:52:31.300
Have people because the publicity this book

1477
00:52:31.300 --> 00:52:33.667
has received and the very good reviews, for the most part, have

1478
00:52:33.667 --> 00:52:36.033
the political -- have the foreign policies advisors of

1479
00:52:36.033 --> 00:52:38.567
these candidates sought you out and said we want to try to

1480
00:52:38.567 --> 00:52:40.968
understand how you see the world?

1481
00:52:40.968 --> 00:52:43.033
I have been an informal advisor to the Obama

1482
00:52:43.033 --> 00:52:45.067
campaign, focusing specifically on Afghanistan, Pakistan and

1483
00:52:45.067 --> 00:52:47.200
India, actually, for about a year now.

1484
00:52:47.200 --> 00:52:49.300
OK.

1485
00:52:49.300 --> 00:52:51.601
The book is called "The Second World: Empires and Influence in

1486
00:52:51.601 --> 00:52:53.868
the New Global Order." Part of a collection of things that you

1487
00:52:53.868 --> 00:52:56.167
should pay attention to as you try to think about these

1488
00:52:56.167 --> 00:52:58.434
questions we have been asking -- what is the new

1489
00:52:58.434 --> 00:53:00.734
global order and

1490
00:53:00.734 --> 00:53:04.067
what is the place of Europe and China and Russia and Brazil and

1491
00:53:04.067 --> 00:53:07.234
other countries in that new global order?

1492
00:53:07.234 --> 00:53:09.968
You know, and what resources they have to change, and how

1493
00:53:09.968 --> 00:53:12.534
much of a thirst is there around the world for American

1494
00:53:12.534 --> 00:53:14.734
leadership at this time?

1495
00:53:14.734 --> 00:53:16.834
Parag Khanna, thank you.

1496
00:53:16.834 --> 00:53:18.868
Thank you so much.

1497
00:53:18.868 --> 00:53:20.934
Thank you for joining us.

1498
00:53:20.934 --> 
See you next time.