WEBVTT

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-- next.

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Scientists Agree Nature, Nurture Interact in Cancer

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A study published in The New England Journal of

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Medicine today concludes that environmental factors play a

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larger role than inheritance in increasing a person's

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susceptibility to cancer.

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The study, conducted by scientists from Sweden, Denmark

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and Finland, examined over 40,000 pairs of identical and

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non-identical twins.

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Its findings have sparked the age-old debate of nature versus

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nurture, which some critics say detracts from the main

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objective, combatting cancer.

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Joining me now to talk about the implications of the study,

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Dr. HAROLD VARMUS, Nobel laureate and former director of

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the National Institutes of Health.

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He is currently president of Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer

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Center here in New York.

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Also with me, Dr. FRANCIS COLLINS, director of the

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National Human Genome Research Institute at the National

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Institutes of Health.

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He has been on this program recently in-- both of them, in

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fact, were here when we did our week-long series

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on the human genome.

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And I am pleased to have them back here to take a look at

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this, a subject that we discussed a little bit in the

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conversations that took place.

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Welcome back.

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Great to have you here. Dr.

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Thank you. Dr.

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Thanks, Charlie.

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Now, as I read that, I could imagine objections

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in terms of the way I couched that.

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Let me take this this way, because I want you both to

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explain to me the significance of this story.

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And I give you credit for pointing this out to me.

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Washington Post today-- ''Cancer study deemphasizes

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genes' role.

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Environmental, behavioral factors are predominant.'' New

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York Times, much lesser play, not on the front page-- ''Genes

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may cause more than 25 percent of three major cancers,

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researchers report.'' What's going on here?

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Well, what's been done is a very interesting

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retrospective evaluation of the incidence of cancers in a large

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population of twins.

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The conclusions are actually not a great surprise to those of us

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who've watched the debate about inheritance versus environmental

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exposure in the causation of cancer over many years.

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That is, only a few cancers, a small percentage of cancers can

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be directly attributed to hereditary causes, which is not

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to say that-- that genes are not important in

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all cancers because

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genes are the-- to borrow a metaphor from my colleague, Mike

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Bishop, it's the keyboard on which the

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causes of cancers play.

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And there are three ways in which genes become faulty in the

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generation of a cancer.

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One is because you inherited a bad gene from your mother or

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your father.

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The second is because a mistake occurred at some point in your

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lifetime, when your cell was undergoing duplication.

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And thirdly, some environmental influence led to the causation

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of the mutation.

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So genes are always involved, but they're involved as a result

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of one of those three processes.

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All right, but let me just-- this study was in

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The New England Journal of Medicine.

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I mean, the editors there thought it was an important

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study to put in their magazine, a prestigious

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medical journal, correct?

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Correct.

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And therefore there is something important

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about this study that's worth taking note of.

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Numbers.

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Numbers.

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Tell me.

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Well, there are lots of

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numbers, a lot of-- many

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sets of twins, and that analysis is very important.

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Now, the analysis, as pointed out both in the editorial and in

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the paper itself, is limited by the fact that this is a

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retrospective analysis in which a lot of data that you'd like to

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have is missing.

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Yeah.

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What were the behaviors of these people?

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What were they actually exposed to?

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How many smoked?

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How many drank?

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How many had infections with viruses that we know predispose

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to cancers?

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And if we had all of that plus a lot more genetic data of

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the kind Francis--

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Yeah.

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--would like to talk about, then we could-- and

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it's a building block in what's going to be a very long process

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of understanding the genetic influences.

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That is, why do some people react to environmental

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influences in a certain way and have a mutation?

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There are genes that govern the question of whether or not an

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occasional mistake in the duplication of our DNA persists

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or is corrected.

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And these kinds of influences need to be thought about in the

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context of whether things that happen during our lifetime are

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more likely to lead to cancer in some people than in others.

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All right, pick up on that and tell me--

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Well, I think the study got attention because

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it is the largest twin study that's been done to look at

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cancer, 44,000-and-some twin pairs have been analyzed.

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That's a lot of people.

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Can I make just one point?

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Identical twins have the same gene structure, right?

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Exactly.

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They have--

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And-- and--

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They are essentially clones of each other,

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if you'll pardon the use of the word in this particular--

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So they got the same genes, and

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if they have different

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environments, then you can make something of what

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they end up as.

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Right.

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Whereas the non-identical twins are otherwise sharing their

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environments pretty extensively, but their genes are no more

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alike than siblings.

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They share about half their genes.

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I think the study tells you a couple of things.

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It says that about a third of cancer seems to be due to

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hereditary factors and about two thirds seems

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to be due to environment.

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Now, actually, for many people, looking at these cancers-- and

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they're talking about colon cancer, they're talking about

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breast cancer and they're talking about prostate cancer.

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Those are the three cancers -- if I can

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interrupt -- that we know there's a gene relationship.

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They say about a third--

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Right.

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--of those cancers seem to come from

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hereditary factors, i.e., genes that people have inherited from

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their parents.

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Right.

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And actually, from many people's perspective,

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that's a high number.

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We certainly have not identified enough genes that are

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specifically attached to those conditions to explain this.

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I mean, we've heard about BRCA-1 and BRCA-2 and

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various genes for

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colon cancer, but all together they only add up to

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maybe 4 or 5 percent.

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So there's a big additional set of probably fairly weakly-acting

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but very important genes to make up the rest of this one third.

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Now, there's another important thing about this study, which

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they couldn't do much about because they don't have this

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additional information.

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They had to assume in this study that there's no interaction

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between genes and environment.

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And we know that's not true.

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Something that may be, in fact, dangerous for me because of my

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genes may be totally safe for you.

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And environment and genes are not separated by

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some bright line.

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Now, is that why some people can smoke and get

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cancer and some people can smoke and not get cancer?

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Absolutely.

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And people are studying that right now.

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And there's data to support that.

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Yeah.

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In fact, that is a familial trait.

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Maybe we should pay attention to the fact

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that nature and nurture

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sound a lot alike and not try to draw a bright

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line between them,

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as if somehow they were totally separable and it's either one or

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the other in any given circumstance.

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They interact with each other.

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The more we learn about heredity, the more we're going

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to learn about the environment.

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I get really upset when people say, ''All you guys who study

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genes, you don't care about the environment.'' We care about the

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environment a lot.

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And actually, we'll argue that understanding the genes is maybe

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the best shot we've got to understanding the environment.

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But what this also brought out to me -- and

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the Human Genome Project, as well -- was that-- how-- you

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know, that the mapping of the human genome was just the

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beginning in understanding.

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Absolutely.

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And how little we know-- how

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little we know about

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the genetic contribution to cancer.

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Right.

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But you heard us talk two weeks ago, when we were

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on the genome show--

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Right.

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--about this issue of assessing our risk of

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developing cancers.

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And there are a couple of ways to think about that.

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One is that you simply have a set of genes, maybe a complex

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set of genes, not just a single gene, that predisposes you to a

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certain cancer.

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Maybe it predisposes you to quite a number of cancers.

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And as far as we can tell, in the study, some of those-- some

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genetic influences that predispose not to one particular

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cancer but to a whole range of cancers might be quite important

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and missed in the study.

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The other factor is that, as Francis was suggesting, our

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individual responses to common or even uncommon environmental

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influences might be quite different, whether it's tobacco

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smoke or a virus infection or exposure to certain kinds of

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materials and foods.

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And it may be very hard to sort out exactly what it is that

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results in those predispositions to the negative effects of an

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environmental component that might be benign for Francis and

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bad for me.

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But-- this is obvious to both of you, I'm

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sure, but it seemed to me that the benefits of these kind of

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studies are twofold.

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One, it underlines the impact of environmental things that you

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can do that are cancer-producing, whether it's

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smoking or whether it is-- it's a whole range of other things,

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in terms of the environment that produce cancers or

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an incentive to--

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Although there's one aspect of that that I

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think one should be careful about.

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This study says, basically, all of cancer is due to heredity or

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environment, the implication being the environmental part is

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due to bad stuff that's out there that we're exposed to in

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the air or what we eat or what we drink.

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And actually, some of that environmental component is

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probably just the mistake rate of copying DNA that is part of

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being alive, even without any toxins

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whatsoever in your environment.

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That's how cancer comes about, by making mistakes.

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That will tend to pop up in--

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So why is the mistake--

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--the environmental part of this.

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Why are the mistakes made?

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Well, if we didn't have mistakes, we

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wouldn't have evolved.

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Well, and--

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It's important to have an error rate in your

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>>DNA copying: Think about how long it would it take you to copy

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something absolutely correctly.

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Right.

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It's too slow to do things correctly.

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And then making mistakes is good because we evolved from

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primitive forms because we made mistakes.

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Because we made the mistakes, yeah.

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And we make mistakes on purpose when you're

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generating antibodies, for instance--

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Yeah.

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--otherwise you'd have a hard time with your

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immune system.

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So there are reasons.

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I assume-- and we've said this, too-- is that

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the other thing, though, is if you know there's a genetic

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component, it is more likely that you should go and monitor

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your own physical well-being.

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It's a red flag to monitor.

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Well, if you look at this study, in fact,

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those twins whose identical twin had had a cancer, their risk

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went up about sixfold for most of the cancers they

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were looking at.

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That tells you if we were able to identify for you and me that

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00:10:00.133 --> 00:10:02.334
kind of situation.

264
00:10:02.334 --> 00:10:04.667
While most of those folks aren't going to get cancer -- it's not

265
00:10:04.667 --> 00:10:07.200
like a fatalistic view, it's not written into your DNA, you're

266
00:10:07.200 --> 00:10:09.334
not doomed -- your risk being higher than the average person

267
00:10:09.334 --> 00:10:11.667
is a good reason to go and practice some better medical

268
00:10:11.667 --> 00:10:14.033
surveillance, pick up that tumor while it's small

269
00:10:14.033 --> 00:10:16.400
and easy to remove.

270
00:10:16.400 --> 00:10:19.133
So while I do think an important aspect of this study

271
00:10:19.133 --> 00:10:21.934
is to sort of say, ''Wait a minute.

272
00:10:21.934 --> 00:10:24.667
If you were beginning to think, based on all of this hoo-haw

273
00:10:24.667 --> 00:10:27.000
about genetics and genomics, that we are hapless victims of

274
00:10:27.000 --> 00:10:29.467
glitches in our DNA and we're all going to have our fate

275
00:10:29.467 --> 00:10:31.634
written out, no matter what we do''-- that's wrong, and this

276
00:10:31.634 --> 00:10:34.100
study helps you see that.

277
00:10:34.100 --> 00:10:36.601
It does not say that knowing that information isn't helpful.

278
00:10:36.601 --> 00:10:39.133
It can be incredibly helpful.

279
00:10:39.133 --> 00:10:41.534
Is cancer-- are genes in cancer particularly

280
00:10:41.534 --> 00:10:44.200
more exciting than everything else, than most diseases?

281
00:10:44.200 --> 00:10:46.467
I'm not sure it's particular more exciting,

282
00:10:46.467 --> 00:10:49.000
but it is closer to reality.

283
00:10:49.000 --> 00:10:51.467
That is, we all feel that we know many of the

284
00:10:51.467 --> 00:10:53.834
genes that are involved.

285
00:10:53.834 --> 00:10:56.300
There is a romance to it, at one level, because of the

286
00:10:56.300 --> 00:10:58.801
involvement of many of these genes in the developmental

287
00:10:58.801 --> 00:11:01.467
processes that make us who we are.

288
00:11:01.467 --> 00:11:04.234
And then there's the seriousness of the illness and the

289
00:11:04.234 --> 00:11:07.000
devastating effects that it has on individuals.

290
00:11:07.000 --> 00:11:09.934
You could argue-- take a disease that people don't think

291
00:11:09.934 --> 00:11:13.067
of as genetic, namely AIDS.

292
00:11:13.067 --> 00:11:16.234
Well, AIDS is a disease caused by a set of genes that happen to

293
00:11:16.234 --> 00:11:19.200
be in a virus and get delivered to the body by the virus.

294
00:11:19.200 --> 00:11:22.334
And much of the modern medicine that's used to treat AIDS, at

295
00:11:22.334 --> 00:11:25.467
least in this country, where we have such drugs, are designed to

296
00:11:25.467 --> 00:11:28.767
interfere with the products of genes.

297
00:11:28.767 --> 00:11:31.868
So this is genetic medicine in a way that, you know, is very

298
00:11:31.868 --> 00:11:34.667
exciting because it's one of the first demonstrations of how we

299
00:11:34.667 --> 00:11:37.634
can use the information that comes from molecular analysis to

300
00:11:37.634 --> 00:11:40.334
develop better medicines.

301
00:11:40.334 --> 00:11:42.868
We're just further along with cancer, and

302
00:11:42.868 --> 00:11:45.267
people like Harold-- and that's why he's a Nobel laureate--

303
00:11:45.267 --> 00:11:48.000
Yeah.

304
00:11:48.000 --> 00:11:50.567
--have uncovered these reasons why

305
00:11:50.567 --> 00:11:53.701
cancer comes about.

306
00:11:53.701 --> 00:11:55.968
We have the list of the culprits very well in hand, and our task

307
00:11:55.968 --> 00:11:58.234
now is to figure out how to interfere with their action.

308
00:11:58.234 --> 00:12:00.501
But for a lot of other diseases-- (crosstalk)

309
00:12:00.501 --> 00:12:02.767
--list of the culprits in hand in--

310
00:12:02.767 --> 00:12:04.734
in how many cases?

311
00:12:04.734 --> 00:12:06.667
For-- oh, I'm not going to--

312
00:12:06.667 --> 00:12:08.601
Well, we just mentioned three.

313
00:12:08.601 --> 00:12:10.534
--say we have the whole list, but if you look

314
00:12:10.534 --> 00:12:12.501
at a tumor and you try to figure out ''Why is this a tumor?

315
00:12:12.501 --> 00:12:14.334
What's going on here?''

316
00:12:14.334 --> 00:12:16.167
we have a long list of oncogenes, and we have a long

317
00:12:16.167 --> 00:12:18.033
list of tumor-suppressor genes.

318
00:12:18.033 --> 00:12:19.868
And it's the combined actions of those

319
00:12:19.868 --> 00:12:21.701
that often are responsible

320
00:12:21.701 --> 00:12:23.734
for the fact those cells are growing out of control.

321
00:12:23.734 --> 00:12:26.000
Many of those are not inherited.

322
00:12:26.000 --> 00:12:28.334
Most of them are not.

323
00:12:28.334 --> 00:12:30.601
They're acquired misspellings that occur during life.

324
00:12:30.601 --> 00:12:32.801
But we know a lot about that list, and that has now gotten us

325
00:12:32.801 --> 00:12:35.167
into the point of having the opportunity to design approaches

326
00:12:35.167 --> 00:12:37.267
that don't target some downstream problem, they go

327
00:12:37.267 --> 00:12:39.534
right to the heart of the molecular difficulty.

328
00:12:39.534 --> 00:12:41.467
Of course, the problem is that for almost every

329
00:12:41.467 --> 00:12:43.434
cancer there is a list.

330
00:12:43.434 --> 00:12:45.434
It's not as though there are lists, one for each cancer.

331
00:12:45.434 --> 00:12:47.400
Right.

332
00:12:47.400 --> 00:12:49.234
It's complicated.

333
00:12:49.234 --> 00:12:51.200
And you have to decide what are you targets.

334
00:12:51.200 --> 00:12:53.467
And these targets are not that easy to pinpoint.

335
00:12:53.467 --> 00:12:56.100
So it's a challenge.

336
00:12:56.100 --> 00:12:58.801
You know, in some ways, the study we're talking about would

337
00:12:58.801 --> 00:13:01.300
have been better presented, from our point of view, if there was

338
00:13:01.300 --> 00:13:03.734
a distinction between inherited events and somatic events,

339
00:13:03.734 --> 00:13:05.868
events that occur during the lifetime of the individual, as

340
00:13:05.868 --> 00:13:07.734
opposed to having been inherited.

341
00:13:07.734 --> 00:13:09.701
And then I think we--

342
00:13:09.701 --> 00:13:11.667
In other words-- wait. Make sure I understand.

343
00:13:11.667 --> 00:13:13.701
Translate that for me.

344
00:13:13.701 --> 00:13:16.167
Well, the reason I say that-- we use the word

345
00:13:16.167 --> 00:13:18.801
''somatic.'' Those are things that happen after the

346
00:13:18.801 --> 00:13:21.300
individual-- during the individual's lifetime.

347
00:13:21.300 --> 00:13:23.400
So if we knew whether the person smoked or

348
00:13:23.400 --> 00:13:25.234
not, whether the person ate bad foods or not, all of that kind

349
00:13:25.234 --> 00:13:26.868
of stuff and when and where, it would have been a better and

350
00:13:26.868 --> 00:13:28.567
more important study.

351
00:13:28.567 --> 00:13:30.367
No.

352
00:13:30.367 --> 00:13:32.434
Well, that's true, too.

353
00:13:32.434 --> 00:13:34.534
But I think when Francis referred a moment ago to his

354
00:13:34.534 --> 00:13:37.000
displeasure about the use of the word ''environmental'' as

355
00:13:37.000 --> 00:13:39.100
opposed to genetic, that-- that actually, a large part of what

356
00:13:39.100 --> 00:13:40.934
was being referred to as environmental was not an

357
00:13:40.934 --> 00:13:42.801
influence of something on the outside, but actually--

358
00:13:42.801 --> 00:13:44.434
Oh, right. Right.

359
00:13:44.434 --> 00:13:46.300
I got that.

360
00:13:46.300 --> 00:13:48.067
--a reflection of this endogenous process.

361
00:13:48.067 --> 00:13:49.868
Right.

362
00:13:49.868 --> 00:13:51.734
One of the things that causes you to

363
00:13:51.734 --> 00:13:53.834
misspell DNA is oxygen.

364
00:13:53.834 --> 00:13:55.934
I don't think we probably want to say, ''Well, the solution to

365
00:13:55.934 --> 00:13:58.667
cancer is we'll take away everybody's oxygen.'' There's

366
00:13:58.667 --> 00:14:01.334
some part of the shared environment that we all need to

367
00:14:01.334 --> 00:14:04.100
live that feeds into this DNA copying mistake rate.

368
00:14:04.100 --> 00:14:06.701
And to sort of imply that some parts of that can be eliminated

369
00:14:06.701 --> 00:14:09.100
if we just cleaned up things is probably not quite right.

370
00:14:09.100 --> 00:14:11.434
But we should certainly try to clean up things and figure out

371
00:14:11.434 --> 00:14:13.868
what are the environmental contributors

372
00:14:13.868 --> 00:14:16.267
that we could eliminate.

373
00:14:16.267 --> 00:14:18.868
It's probably not realistic to think we can eliminate them all.

374
00:14:18.868 --> 00:14:21.300
We shouldn't get-- we should go back to this

375
00:14:21.300 --> 00:14:23.667
issue of why-- why cancer is such an attraction.

376
00:14:23.667 --> 00:14:26.033
I think part of it is the-- is the frequency of cancer and--

377
00:14:26.033 --> 00:14:28.000
Everybody knows somebody.

378
00:14:28.000 --> 00:14:30.000
But we do have many other diseases where the

379
00:14:30.000 --> 00:14:31.968
genetic influence is very clear, in Huntington's disease or a

380
00:14:31.968 --> 00:14:33.934
disease where Francis discovered and isolated

381
00:14:33.934 --> 00:14:35.934
the important gene,

382
00:14:35.934 --> 00:14:38.133
cystic fibrosis.

383
00:14:38.133 --> 00:14:40.300
Right.

384
00:14:40.300 --> 00:14:44.534
I was going to say that. Yeah.

385
00:14:44.534 --> 00:14:46.601
And you know, there we have 10 years of

386
00:14:46.601 --> 00:14:48.133
experience in how difficult it is to correct the defect.

387
00:14:48.133 --> 00:14:49.667
Not all defects are easily repaired, even though we know

388
00:14:49.667 --> 00:14:51.200
them with--

389
00:14:51.200 --> 00:14:52.734
OK, what-- what was the experience after you

390
00:14:52.734 --> 00:14:54.267
identified that gene?

391
00:14:54.267 --> 00:14:56.567
So here we are, 10 years later.

392
00:14:56.567 --> 00:14:59.033
Gene therapy has been tried for this disease.

393
00:14:59.033 --> 00:15:01.167
It's certainly been attempted in multiple trials.

394
00:15:01.167 --> 00:15:03.334
There have been some biochemical successes but no clinical

395
00:15:03.334 --> 00:15:05.934
successes, as far as actually improving

396
00:15:05.934 --> 00:15:08.701
the status of patients.

397
00:15:08.701 --> 00:15:11.534
I'm actually very excited right now with a new strategy which

398
00:15:11.534 --> 00:15:14.400
uses what we know about the gene and how it works to run through

399
00:15:14.400 --> 00:15:16.767
very large numbers of compounds to see if we can find one that

400
00:15:16.767 --> 00:15:18.801
tweaks the system just enough so that this protein, which we

401
00:15:18.801 --> 00:15:21.267
understand-- we know a lot about--

402
00:15:21.267 --> 00:15:25.067
Right. Right. Right.

403
00:15:25.067 --> 00:15:26.534
--how it folds and what it does--

404
00:15:26.534 --> 00:15:28.000
Right.

405
00:15:28.000 --> 00:15:29.467
--can be tweaked into action in somebody who

406
00:15:29.467 --> 00:15:30.934
has the disease.

407
00:15:30.934 --> 00:15:32.634
And I wouldn't be surprised if, based on that, we come up with

408
00:15:32.634 --> 00:15:34.133
some pretty useful things.

409
00:15:34.133 --> 00:15:35.767
But it takes time.

410
00:15:35.767 --> 00:15:37.234
That's the important issue about genomics.

411
00:15:37.234 --> 00:15:38.834
It is the first step.

412
00:15:38.834 --> 00:15:41.834
Then you've got a lot more work to do.

413
00:15:41.834 --> 00:15:44.801
Right.

414
00:15:44.801 --> 00:15:47.767
But here's my other question, too, that goes to-- suppose you,

415
00:15:47.767 --> 00:15:50.234
at Sloan-Kettering, and you're still at

416
00:15:50.234 --> 00:15:52.567
Some people think we do.

417
00:15:52.567 --> 00:15:54.601
Well, not many, when they look at--

418
00:15:54.601 --> 00:15:56.367
I hope not!

419
00:15:56.367 --> 00:15:58.167
I mean, could this process be accelerated by--

420
00:15:58.167 --> 00:15:59.467
You bet.

421
00:15:59.467 --> 00:16:00.801
--a factor of-- what?

422
00:16:00.801 --> 00:16:02.100
Several.

423
00:16:02.100 --> 00:16:03.400
Several. And we are not limited now by

424
00:16:03.400 --> 00:16:04.701
talents or by scientific capacity.

425
00:16:04.701 --> 00:16:06.501
And technology.

426
00:16:06.501 --> 00:16:08.367
Or technology.

427
00:16:08.367 --> 00:16:10.000
I mean--

428
00:16:10.000 --> 00:16:11.734
O questions to ask.

429
00:16:11.734 --> 00:16:13.534
Questions to ask.

430
00:16:13.534 --> 00:16:15.367
Or questions to ask. Yeah.

431
00:16:15.367 --> 00:16:17.234
We are in a golden era.

432
00:16:17.234 --> 00:16:19.167
We are at a point where questions can be asked and

433
00:16:19.167 --> 00:16:21.100
answered in ways that were not thinkable 10 or 20 years ago.

434
00:16:21.100 --> 00:16:22.801
And it is exciting, as you can imagine, to be a scientist

435
00:16:22.801 --> 00:16:24.567
involved in that, but it's also frustrating when you can see how

436
00:16:24.567 --> 00:16:26.400
many things could be done, and we still have to limit ourselves

437
00:16:26.400 --> 00:16:28.267
to what's available.

438
00:16:28.267 --> 00:16:30.534
And when it touches so many lives.

439
00:16:30.534 --> 00:16:33.067
I mean, this is always interesting to me.

440
00:16:33.067 --> 00:16:35.200
I'll bet you it will not be discussed in this presidential

441
00:16:35.200 --> 00:16:37.300
campaign as an important item on the agenda for America.

442
00:16:37.300 --> 00:16:39.501
Well, we can inject it.

443
00:16:39.501 --> 00:16:41.634
All right.

444
00:16:41.634 --> 00:16:43.734
But you know, to look back at the study we're

445
00:16:43.734 --> 00:16:45.601
talking about-- we're exited about that study mainly because

446
00:16:45.601 --> 00:16:47.934
of the size of the study.

447
00:16:47.934 --> 00:16:50.200
Eighty-nine thousand twins.

448
00:16:50.200 --> 00:16:52.400
Right.

449
00:16:52.400 --> 00:16:54.367
But we could do that study now with appropriate analysis of the

450
00:16:54.367 --> 00:16:56.367
genomes and--

451
00:16:56.367 --> 00:16:58.334
And do it better.

452
00:16:58.334 --> 00:17:00.334
And do it better. And a much clearer sense of

453
00:17:00.334 --> 00:17:02.300
what kinds of behavioral data ought

454
00:17:02.300 --> 00:17:04.701
to be collected and learn a lot more.

455
00:17:04.701 --> 00:17:07.334
And indeed, that's one of the directions that I see the study

456
00:17:07.334 --> 00:17:09.934
of cancer undertaking.

457
00:17:09.934 --> 00:17:12.534
We could call it genetic epidemiology, where actually--

458
00:17:12.534 --> 00:17:14.734
you know, it's always been difficult to say that something

459
00:17:14.734 --> 00:17:16.901
in the food influences a certain disease.

460
00:17:16.901 --> 00:17:19.000
You read these stories once a week that--

461
00:17:19.000 --> 00:17:20.834
Sure.

462
00:17:20.834 --> 00:17:22.734
--whether it's tomatoes protecting you against

463
00:17:22.734 --> 00:17:24.701
prostate cancer one week or broccoli against something else

464
00:17:24.701 --> 00:17:26.467
the next week.

465
00:17:26.467 --> 00:17:28.467
Those influences are subtle, and they're hard to figure out

466
00:17:28.467 --> 00:17:30.534
unless you do what we call fractionators--

467
00:17:30.534 --> 00:17:32.601
stratify the population.

468
00:17:32.601 --> 00:17:34.667
That is, analyze the population for-- for genetic differences

469
00:17:34.667 --> 00:17:36.434
that might suddenly allow you to say, ''Well, for this 5 percent

470
00:17:36.434 --> 00:17:38.300
of the population, broccoli is really good or really bad.''

471
00:17:38.300 --> 00:17:40.167
I ask the--

472
00:17:40.167 --> 00:17:42.067
That's the future.

473
00:17:42.067 --> 00:17:43.701
That's the future.

474
00:17:43.701 --> 00:17:46.901
That's the future. Dr.

475
00:17:46.901 --> 00:17:48.501
That's the future. To be able not to treat

476
00:17:48.501 --> 00:17:50.100
everybody as sort of one size

477
00:17:50.100 --> 00:17:52.601
fits all and one biology fits all.

478
00:17:52.601 --> 00:17:54.968
We're all different.

479
00:17:54.968 --> 00:17:57.434
Those differences plays some role in who's at risk for what.

480
00:17:57.434 --> 00:17:59.801
But they also play a role in how we interact with our

481
00:17:59.801 --> 00:18:02.067
environment, whether it's some toxin that we got exposed to or

482
00:18:02.067 --> 00:18:04.300
some drug that we took and whether it works for us or not.

483
00:18:04.300 --> 00:18:06.467
Being able to understand human variation and use it to our

484
00:18:06.467 --> 00:18:08.601
benefit is a big frontier.

485
00:18:08.601 --> 00:18:10.701
And we're, I think, about to cross over into a very

486
00:18:10.701 --> 00:18:12.801
interesting place.

487
00:18:12.801 --> 00:18:15.200
What's the most interesting question that you

488
00:18:15.200 --> 00:18:17.601
think, for you, what is the one question you most ask, would

489
00:18:17.601 --> 00:18:22.334
like to know the answer to? Dr.

490
00:18:22.334 --> 00:18:24.701
I'd like to know how the genome works. I'd

491
00:18:24.701 --> 00:18:27.100
like to have the ability to take this three billion letters

492
00:18:27.100 --> 00:18:30.033
of a linear script and convert that into a model that I could

493
00:18:30.033 --> 00:18:33.267
get my mind around about how a cell works, who an organ works,

494
00:18:33.267 --> 00:18:36.334
how an organism works.

495
00:18:36.334 --> 00:18:39.167
To be able to have all those pieces put together in a way

496
00:18:39.167 --> 00:18:42.067
that allowed you to understand the nuts and bolts of life.

497
00:18:42.067 --> 00:18:44.734
Not to say that that's all there is about who we are, but I'd

498
00:18:44.734 --> 00:18:47.267
sure like to understand that part.

499
00:18:47.267 --> 00:18:49.634
But you've got a big starting point because of

500
00:18:49.634 --> 00:18:53.767
the mapping. Dr.

501
00:18:53.767 --> 00:18:55.634
A big starting point.

502
00:18:55.634 --> 00:18:57.467
What about your, Harold? Dr.

503
00:18:57.467 --> 00:18:59.334
Well, I think that illustrates the difference

504
00:18:59.334 --> 00:19:01.167
in our mental approach to life that I hadn't

505
00:19:01.167 --> 00:19:03.367
appreciated before.

506
00:19:03.367 --> 00:19:05.534
Francis must be revealing some engineering background.

507
00:19:05.534 --> 00:19:08.033
I'm afraid that the answer to your question-- we're such a

508
00:19:08.033 --> 00:19:10.868
complex machine that the description will be like a

509
00:19:10.868 --> 00:19:13.734
wiring diagram that's very difficult to comprehend.

510
00:19:13.734 --> 00:19:16.734
I guess my own dream is to have-- to know what the best

511
00:19:16.734 --> 00:19:19.834
points of attack are when a cell behaves badly -- whether it's

512
00:19:19.834 --> 00:19:22.400
behaving badly in the respiratory epiphyllium of a

513
00:19:22.400 --> 00:19:24.834
patient with cystic fibrosis or whether it's behaving badly in a

514
00:19:24.834 --> 00:19:27.033
cancer -- and to know that that is the place where I can take

515
00:19:27.033 --> 00:19:29.434
corrective action.

516
00:19:29.434 --> 00:19:31.434
Wait, wait, wait.

517
00:19:31.434 --> 00:19:35.434
Let me just understand this. Dr.

518
00:19:35.434 --> 00:19:37.467
I'd like to know-- We're going to learn a lot

519
00:19:37.467 --> 00:19:39.467
of things about the complexities of cells.

520
00:19:39.467 --> 00:19:41.968
I'd like to learn some simplifying principles that say

521
00:19:41.968 --> 00:19:44.767
that in this mass of circuitry and wiring diagrams -- they're

522
00:19:44.767 --> 00:19:47.767
not really wires.

523
00:19:47.767 --> 00:19:50.834
These are chemical reactions and cascades and feedbacks.

524
00:19:50.834 --> 00:19:53.968
That in a cancer cell, here are the places where the

525
00:19:53.968 --> 00:19:57.200
vulnerability is the greatest, or in some other kind-- in

526
00:19:57.200 --> 00:20:00.100
Alzheimer's disease, where we are learning a great deal about

527
00:20:00.100 --> 00:20:03.200
biochemical fallacies that precipitate the death of cells.

528
00:20:03.200 --> 00:20:06.300
What is it about those processes that is most amenable

529
00:20:06.300 --> 00:20:09.534
to correction?

530
00:20:09.534 --> 00:20:12.567
And let's sort of simplify this incredibly complicated

531
00:20:12.567 --> 00:20:15.834
''how it works'' model, which I think will be fascinating at one

532
00:20:15.834 --> 00:20:18.133
level, and have some clarity about where we should make our

533
00:20:18.133 --> 00:20:20.400
pursuit of corrective action.

534
00:20:20.400 --> 00:20:22.701


535
00:20:22.701 --> 00:20:25.000
I think we're saying the same thing. You can't get to that

536
00:20:25.000 --> 00:20:27.300
point until you have the complexity in

537
00:20:27.300 --> 00:20:30.501
front of you and then you can make it simple again.

538
00:20:30.501 --> 00:20:33.767
You have to understand the whole picture before you can draw a

539
00:20:33.767 --> 00:20:35.834
cartoon of it that emphasizes

540
00:20:35.834 --> 00:20:37.901
the features. Dr.

541
00:20:37.901 --> 00:20:39.968


542
00:20:39.968 --> 00:20:42.033
Oh, good. I was worried for a minute there because I

543
00:20:42.033 --> 00:20:44.100
certainly would agree with you.

544
00:20:44.100 --> 00:20:46.634
The point of this is not an intellectual exercise, although

545
00:20:46.634 --> 00:20:49.200
it is a wonderful one.

546
00:20:49.200 --> 00:20:51.567
The point of it is to try to understand what happens in

547
00:20:51.567 --> 00:20:53.834
disease and what we can do about it.

548
00:20:53.834 --> 00:20:55.767
On that note, thank you very much.

549
00:20:55.767 --> 00:20:58.200
A pleasure to have you here.

550
00:20:58.200 --> 00:21:01.934
Thank you.

551
00:21:01.934 --> 00:21:05.467
We'll be right back.

552
00:21:05.467 --> 00:21:08.834
Stay with us.

553
00:21:08.834 --> 00:21:11.934
PaineWebber Exec Explains Why they Were Bought by Swiss

554
00:21:11.934 --> 00:21:14.934
It was announced yesterday that PaineWebber, one

555
00:21:14.934 --> 00:21:18.033
of the nation's top brokerage firms, will be purchased by UBS,

556
00:21:18.033 --> 00:21:20.601
Switzerland's largest bank.

557
00:21:20.601 --> 00:21:23.067
The $10 billion deal is the latest merger to shake the

558
00:21:23.067 --> 00:21:25.167
business world and positions the company as a new

559
00:21:25.167 --> 00:21:27.234
global finance leader.

560
00:21:27.234 --> 00:21:29.534
It also represents the first direct acquisition

561
00:21:29.534 --> 00:21:31.901
of a leading U.S.

562
00:21:31.901 --> 00:21:34.734
brokerage firm by a foreign company.

563
00:21:34.734 --> 00:21:37.767
I am pleased to have DONALD MARRON, who is a friend, also

564
00:21:37.767 --> 00:21:41.167
the chairman and CEO of PaineWebber, here to talk about

565
00:21:41.167 --> 00:21:44.200
the significance of this beyond the fact that it is one more big

566
00:21:44.200 --> 00:21:46.968
deal merger in the world of globalization and finance.

567
00:21:46.968 --> 00:21:49.000
Why did you finally say ''OK, somebody has the right number

568
00:21:49.000 --> 00:21:53.067
and the right combination for PaineWebber?''

569
00:21:53.067 --> 00:21:55.100
I said right from the beginning when this

570
00:21:55.100 --> 00:21:57.133
started to come up four or five

571
00:21:57.133 --> 00:21:59.567
years ago, if somebody turned up who could do something better

572
00:21:59.567 --> 00:22:01.667
for our clients, I'd be interested.

573
00:22:01.667 --> 00:22:03.801
Because if you do better for the clients, it follows it's better

574
00:22:03.801 --> 00:22:06.300
for everybody else -- the employees, the shareholders and

575
00:22:06.300 --> 00:22:08.801
everybody else.

576
00:22:08.801 --> 00:22:11.267
And UBS turned up and they are better for our clients.

577
00:22:11.267 --> 00:22:13.868
And that's-- and I'll just give you the reason why basically.

578
00:22:13.868 --> 00:22:16.300
The 90's -- and I fortunately said it early on -- was the

579
00:22:16.300 --> 00:22:18.501
decade of the individual for financial markets.

580
00:22:18.501 --> 00:22:21.100
We went from pensions to 401(k)'s.

581
00:22:21.100 --> 00:22:23.834
People's futures went in their own hands.

582
00:22:23.834 --> 00:22:26.701
They needed advice.

583
00:22:26.701 --> 00:22:29.434
The next decade is the decade of a global individual investor.

584
00:22:29.434 --> 00:22:32.434
All these Americans, now 50 million who are their own

585
00:22:32.434 --> 00:22:35.033
pension fund managers, have to invest now around the world.

586
00:22:35.033 --> 00:22:37.501
And in the rest of the world the same trends are coming.

587
00:22:37.501 --> 00:22:40.167
Europe and Japan, finally in those countries individuals will

588
00:22:40.167 --> 00:22:42.534
have pools of money to invest.

589
00:22:42.534 --> 00:22:44.868
They're going to want to invest here.

590
00:22:44.868 --> 00:22:46.801
So going global in terms of advice, it's the right time.

591
00:22:46.801 --> 00:22:48.734
So you were-- are you saying by

592
00:22:48.734 --> 00:22:50.667
that in part that

593
00:22:50.667 --> 00:22:52.601
the idea that this would put you sort of right

594
00:22:52.601 --> 00:22:54.534
square in terms of

595
00:22:54.534 --> 00:22:56.868
a kind of partnership in a merger with a international bank

596
00:22:56.868 --> 00:23:00.133
was attractive to you?

597
00:23:00.133 --> 00:23:03.100
Very attractive because of the resources.

598
00:23:03.100 --> 00:23:05.534
UBS manages $1 trillion.

599
00:23:05.534 --> 00:23:08.701
Just in terms of research for our financial advisers and our

600
00:23:08.701 --> 00:23:11.901
clients, we have 65 analysts.

601
00:23:11.901 --> 00:23:14.467
We do brilliantly.

602
00:23:14.467 --> 00:23:17.033
We cover half of the S& P. UBS has 550 analysts. So we'll cover

603
00:23:17.033 --> 00:23:19.601
almost the whole S&P and almost the rest of the world.

604
00:23:19.601 --> 00:23:22.200
This says something about you, I think. It is

605
00:23:22.200 --> 00:23:24.767
said that you-- that you believe that brokerage firms had

606
00:23:24.767 --> 00:23:28.300
provided a service.

607
00:23:28.300 --> 00:23:31.434
That they had, in fact, for their clients done something

608
00:23:31.434 --> 00:23:33.667
important and, for the most part, provided research.

609
00:23:33.667 --> 00:23:35.901
And you started, I think it was Mitchell Hutchins--

610
00:23:35.901 --> 00:23:38.100
That's right.

611
00:23:38.100 --> 00:23:40.067
Which was a firm whose reputation was about

612
00:23:40.067 --> 00:23:42.033
quality, research -- years and years and years ago.

613
00:23:42.033 --> 00:23:43.968
We got to be number one.

614
00:23:43.968 --> 00:23:45.934
And did something say to you

615
00:23:45.934 --> 00:23:47.901
the world is changing

616
00:23:47.901 --> 00:23:50.434
and so therefore it's a different world and I'd better

617
00:23:50.434 --> 00:23:52.567
make a certain alliance because the world is changing?

618
00:23:52.567 --> 00:23:55.067
Yes.

619
00:23:55.067 --> 00:23:57.634
The world is changing and resources are

620
00:23:57.634 --> 00:24:00.267
getting bigger. U.S.

621
00:24:00.267 --> 00:24:02.501
household financial assets are $32 trillion dollars and growing

622
00:24:02.501 --> 00:24:04.767
at 9 percent a year.

623
00:24:04.767 --> 00:24:07.067
The rest of the world is about the amount,

624
00:24:07.067 --> 00:24:09.300
so things are changing.

625
00:24:09.300 --> 00:24:11.734
The power of money and investing people's futures is being

626
00:24:11.734 --> 00:24:14.801
transferred from institutions into the hands of individuals.

627
00:24:14.801 --> 00:24:17.734
That's the big change in the world.

628
00:24:17.734 --> 00:24:20.200
And you'll see it growing over the next 10 years.

629
00:24:20.200 --> 00:24:22.601
I wanted us to be in a position to do the best possible service

630
00:24:22.601 --> 00:24:24.667
for this growing people, and also do it very well, obviously,

631
00:24:24.667 --> 00:24:26.734
for ourselves.

632
00:24:26.734 --> 00:24:28.801
OK, explain to me how it's in

633
00:24:28.801 --> 00:24:30.834
the hands of individuals.

634
00:24:30.834 --> 00:24:32.868
I mean, I understand pension funds and I understand mutual

635
00:24:32.868 --> 00:24:34.634
funds and I understand the management of huge pools of

636
00:24:34.634 --> 00:24:36.534
money that individuals contribute to you, but why is

637
00:24:36.534 --> 00:24:38.701
that in the hands of individuals rather than

638
00:24:38.701 --> 00:24:41.000
some big fund manager?

639
00:24:41.000 --> 00:24:43.934
Well, for example, a pension fund 10 years

640
00:24:43.934 --> 00:24:46.968
ago was five money managers representing the interests of

641
00:24:46.968 --> 00:24:49.534
50,000 people at some big corporation.

642
00:24:49.534 --> 00:24:51.767
Now it's 50,000 people with their own pools of money, each

643
00:24:51.767 --> 00:24:53.734
making 50,000 separate decisions about who should manage it.

644
00:24:53.734 --> 00:24:55.734
Some use money managers.

645
00:24:55.734 --> 00:24:57.367
Some do it themselves.

646
00:24:57.367 --> 00:24:59.033
Some don't do it at all.

647
00:24:59.033 --> 00:25:00.667
That's one of the riskiest things.

648
00:25:00.667 --> 00:25:02.200
What has been the impact, for

649
00:25:02.200 --> 00:25:03.734
better or worse, of

650
00:25:03.734 --> 00:25:05.234
online investing?

651
00:25:05.234 --> 00:25:06.767
Online investing has been a

652
00:25:06.767 --> 00:25:08.300
very different thing.

653
00:25:08.300 --> 00:25:10.267
It doesn't impact the large investor or the investor that

654
00:25:10.267 --> 00:25:12.067
needs and wants research.

655
00:25:12.067 --> 00:25:14.167
What online trading has done, for instance, is open us all up

656
00:25:14.167 --> 00:25:16.868
to the potentials of the Internet.

657
00:25:16.868 --> 00:25:19.167
That's big.

658
00:25:19.167 --> 00:25:21.734
And the second thing that it's done is increase speculation.

659
00:25:21.734 --> 00:25:24.033
Move the impact of information and investing

660
00:25:24.033 --> 00:25:26.567
closer and closer together.

661
00:25:26.567 --> 00:25:29.000
Why-- Why be acquired?

662
00:25:29.000 --> 00:25:31.300
Why not go out and acquire?

663
00:25:31.300 --> 00:25:33.267
Is that a question of stock price?

664
00:25:33.267 --> 00:25:35.234
Is that a question of some other factor?

665
00:25:35.234 --> 00:25:37.234
Well, it's everything.

666
00:25:37.234 --> 00:25:39.467
We just did acquire J.C.

667
00:25:39.467 --> 00:25:41.834
Bradford, the leading firm in the southeast.

668
00:25:41.834 --> 00:25:44.467
That worked out well.

669
00:25:44.467 --> 00:25:46.968
I think the answer for us is to be global quickly enough to take

670
00:25:46.968 --> 00:25:49.334
advantage of these things and provide the services for all our

671
00:25:49.334 --> 00:25:51.567
key employees and clients.

672
00:25:51.567 --> 00:25:53.701
This is a much faster way to do it.

673
00:25:53.701 --> 00:25:55.801
And I think it's a better way with this partner because they

674
00:25:55.801 --> 00:25:57.934
share this opinion.

675
00:25:57.934 --> 00:26:00.067
>>UBS believes in this business: We have seen

676
00:26:00.067 --> 00:26:02.200
a couple of interesting

677
00:26:02.200 --> 00:26:04.334
phenomenons recently.

678
00:26:04.334 --> 00:26:06.200
One is Seagrams was bought by Vivendi.

679
00:26:06.200 --> 00:26:08.434
Yeah, right.

680
00:26:08.434 --> 00:26:10.334
You know, a French company buys an American

681
00:26:10.334 --> 00:26:12.033
company -- or Canadian.

682
00:26:12.033 --> 00:26:13.801
We have seen here Swiss Bank buying an American brokerage

683
00:26:13.801 --> 00:26:15.367
firm -- first time.

684
00:26:15.367 --> 00:26:16.801
First time.

685
00:26:16.801 --> 00:26:18.367
What is that about?

686
00:26:18.367 --> 00:26:20.067
What does that say?

687
00:26:20.067 --> 00:26:21.834
What is that?

688
00:26:21.834 --> 00:26:23.634
I think it says two things.

689
00:26:23.634 --> 00:26:25.501
First, clearly these businesses are going global.

690
00:26:25.501 --> 00:26:27.701
The other thing it says is American companies are now

691
00:26:27.701 --> 00:26:29.567
willing to entertain these ideas.

692
00:26:29.567 --> 00:26:31.667
A few years ago, the idea of an American company being gobbled

693
00:26:31.667 --> 00:26:34.167
up by a foreigner in some ways wasn't that attractive.

694
00:26:34.167 --> 00:26:36.767
Yeah.

695
00:26:36.767 --> 00:26:39.367
Now it's a much more accepted idea.

696
00:26:39.367 --> 00:26:41.567
I can remember, you know, for example when

697
00:26:41.567 --> 00:26:43.467
Japan-- a Japanese company bought Rockefeller Center.

698
00:26:43.467 --> 00:26:45.400
It didn't turn out so well, but that there was a

699
00:26:45.400 --> 00:26:47.100
furor about this.

700
00:26:47.100 --> 00:26:48.868
''What are we doing?

701
00:26:48.868 --> 00:26:50.968
They're buying our crown jewels.

702
00:26:50.968 --> 00:26:52.634
What's going on here?

703
00:26:52.634 --> 00:26:54.300
It's anti-American.''

704
00:26:54.300 --> 00:26:56.000
That's--

705
00:26:56.000 --> 00:26:57.667
And now, it's-- nobody raises a notion about

706
00:26:57.667 --> 00:26:59.334
the fact that these giant mergers maybe begin overseas.

707
00:26:59.334 --> 00:27:02.133
Well, also because they can see better

708
00:27:02.133 --> 00:27:05.367
what's brought to the party.

709
00:27:05.367 --> 00:27:08.067
Our clients will have world research derivatives, banking

710
00:27:08.067 --> 00:27:10.567
products, a triple-A credit rating.

711
00:27:10.567 --> 00:27:12.968
A lot of exciting things -- at least exciting in

712
00:27:12.968 --> 00:27:15.000
the financial world.

713
00:27:15.000 --> 00:27:17.033
You're going to stay for sure for three years?

714
00:27:17.033 --> 00:27:19.067
I have a contract for three years.

715
00:27:19.067 --> 00:27:20.834
I'm committed.

716
00:27:20.834 --> 00:27:22.667
You have to do that?

717
00:27:22.667 --> 00:27:24.467
Well, I can do other things if I want to, but

718
00:27:24.467 --> 00:27:26.801
that's the plan.

719
00:27:26.801 --> 00:27:29.133
This is the personal sense of this.

720
00:27:29.133 --> 00:27:31.133
This is a huge successful deal.

721
00:27:31.133 --> 00:27:33.334
Your stock-- they paid you how many points over what your stock

722
00:27:33.334 --> 00:27:35.501
was selling at the day the merger was announced?

723
00:27:35.501 --> 00:27:37.601
Twenty-five.

724
00:27:37.601 --> 00:27:39.701
Twenty-five dollars per share more?

725
00:27:39.701 --> 00:27:41.767
More than 50 percent more.

726
00:27:41.767 --> 00:27:43.567
More than 50 percent.

727
00:27:43.567 --> 00:27:45.100
And we're worth it.

728
00:27:45.100 --> 00:27:46.667
Oh, obviously they thought so because they met

729
00:27:46.667 --> 00:27:48.234
your price.

730
00:27:48.234 --> 00:27:49.767
If you basically said you've got to pay $70 or

731
00:27:49.767 --> 00:27:53.300
more or there's no deal--

732
00:27:53.300 --> 00:27:54.901
That's right.

733
00:27:54.901 --> 00:27:56.534
You said that to everybody?

734
00:27:56.534 --> 00:27:58.133
That is exactly right.

735
00:27:58.133 --> 00:27:59.734
Why not say at this date, because you've had a

736
00:27:59.734 --> 00:28:01.334
longstanding interest in the world around you.

737
00:28:01.334 --> 00:28:03.501
You have been a Republican.

738
00:28:03.501 --> 00:28:05.834
You have been involved in advising and

739
00:28:05.834 --> 00:28:08.033
raising money for Republicans.

740
00:28:08.033 --> 00:28:10.901
Why not say I've had enough with business, it's time for Don

741
00:28:10.901 --> 00:28:13.334
Marron to do other things to round out his life?

742
00:28:13.334 --> 00:28:15.801
You're an avid collector.

743
00:28:15.801 --> 00:28:17.901
You've made huge contributions to the Museum of Modern Art here

744
00:28:17.901 --> 00:28:19.968
in New York, as it's chair.

745
00:28:19.968 --> 00:28:22.067
Well, because I'm going to be able

746
00:28:22.067 --> 00:28:24.167
to do those things.

747
00:28:24.167 --> 00:28:26.234
That's part of my arrangement but right now I want to make

748
00:28:26.234 --> 00:28:28.334
sure these two organizations are put

749
00:28:28.334 --> 00:28:30.434
together so that PaineWebber

750
00:28:30.434 --> 00:28:33.534
can do the great success in this decade that it had

751
00:28:33.534 --> 00:28:36.934
in the last decade.

752
00:28:36.934 --> 00:28:39.734
I've put almost 20 years of my life into this company.

753
00:28:39.734 --> 00:28:42.701
While we're doing this deal with the Swiss, I want to make sure

754
00:28:42.701 --> 00:28:45.834
it goes very well and that it's launched to get all the benefits

755
00:28:45.834 --> 00:28:49.167
that we've talked about.

756
00:28:49.167 --> 00:28:52.167
But I'm going to be working on public policy and on charitable

757
00:28:52.167 --> 00:28:54.868
activities and being involved in this other world because I've

758
00:28:54.868 --> 00:28:57.300
learned a lot and I've had a lot of experience in the last 20

759
00:28:57.300 --> 00:28:59.701
years that I think I can put to good use.

760
00:28:59.701 --> 00:29:02.200
Is this a good time for American business?

761
00:29:02.200 --> 00:29:04.868
I think it's a superb time for American

762
00:29:04.868 --> 00:29:07.367
business but it's also one of the toughest times.

763
00:29:07.367 --> 00:29:10.100
Global competition is one.

764
00:29:10.100 --> 00:29:12.667
Technology is a very tough taskmaster.

765
00:29:12.667 --> 00:29:15.267
Just think of the Internet.

766
00:29:15.267 --> 00:29:18.133
The real impact of the Internet -- there are really two -- one

767
00:29:18.133 --> 00:29:21.100
is everybody will have the same information.

768
00:29:21.100 --> 00:29:24.300
But that means that advice and judgment is at a higher premium.

769
00:29:24.300 --> 00:29:27.234
And the other thing is it's the marrying of talent and capital.

770
00:29:27.234 --> 00:29:29.934
The Internet is the best invention to marry talent and

771
00:29:29.934 --> 00:29:32.467
capital in the history of capitalism.

772
00:29:32.467 --> 00:29:35.200
Meaning that the Internet allows talent-- is a

773
00:29:35.200 --> 00:29:37.968
place where talent and capital can come together?

774
00:29:37.968 --> 00:29:41.033
Come together more quickly.

775
00:29:41.033 --> 00:29:43.701
And the ideas that foster more capital can be tested faster.

776
00:29:43.701 --> 00:29:46.734
How would you-- because of all the research--

777
00:29:46.734 --> 00:29:49.467
accessed research that you have, what's your own sense of the

778
00:29:49.467 --> 00:29:52.234
future for Wall Street?

779
00:29:52.234 --> 00:29:55.000
I mean, we have seen what's happened in the last six months,

780
00:29:55.000 --> 00:29:57.634
certainly to technology stocks.

781
00:29:57.634 --> 00:29:59.868
And a lot of people who had a lot of stock options that they

782
00:29:59.868 --> 00:30:02.400
thought would be valuable are no longer valuable.

783
00:30:02.400 --> 00:30:05.133
I think the future is what it has always

784
00:30:05.133 --> 00:30:07.467
been, although faster.

785
00:30:07.467 --> 00:30:09.801
It's a test of judgment.

786
00:30:09.801 --> 00:30:12.200
And it's just a faster and more demanding test than

787
00:30:12.200 --> 00:30:14.534
it has ever been.

788
00:30:14.534 --> 00:30:16.901
The good organizations and the good ideas will get the capital

789
00:30:16.901 --> 00:30:19.634
and grow; the other ones will fall by the wayside.

790
00:30:19.634 --> 00:30:22.934
The difference is it's going to happen faster and it's going to

791
00:30:22.934 --> 00:30:25.934
happen globally and it's going to happen very publicly.

792
00:30:25.934 --> 00:30:28.434
When the Asian crisis was sweeping throughout

793
00:30:28.434 --> 00:30:30.868
Asia, I assume everybody in your position was worried, you know

794
00:30:30.868 --> 00:30:33.367
-- ''How fast and are we protected?

795
00:30:33.367 --> 00:30:35.934
'' ''Will it reach our shores?''

796
00:30:35.934 --> 00:30:38.734
You had Secretary Rubin, who has talked about it on this

797
00:30:38.734 --> 00:30:41.334
program, in terms of what steps they felt they had to take.

798
00:30:41.334 --> 00:30:44.167
And how he and Alan Greenspan were having a meal together

799
00:30:44.167 --> 00:30:46.834
saying at the time of the Korean crisis, ''My God, we've got to

800
00:30:46.834 --> 00:30:48.934
do something.''

801
00:30:48.934 --> 00:30:51.000
Right.

802
00:30:51.000 --> 00:30:53.067
Could something like that happen in a moment?

803
00:30:53.067 --> 00:30:55.133
Everybody's concern is that because the other

804
00:30:55.133 --> 00:30:57.200
side of globalization is we're all linked together.

805
00:30:57.200 --> 00:31:00.267
And the answer is you've got to set up as many firewalls and

806
00:31:00.267 --> 00:31:03.033
choices as you can.

807
00:31:03.033 --> 00:31:06.133
It's a theoretical possibility but the fact is the United

808
00:31:06.133 --> 00:31:08.734
States is by far the biggest economic force in the world.

809
00:31:08.734 --> 00:31:11.200
And that's what we have the most control over.

810
00:31:11.200 --> 00:31:13.868
And we should be able to weather any storm that anybody has

811
00:31:13.868 --> 00:31:18.234
thought of.

812
00:31:18.234 --> 00:31:22.000
I've been traveling around a little bit

813
00:31:22.000 --> 00:31:25.334
recently, you know, and in some cases there are some people who

814
00:31:25.334 --> 00:31:28.300
look at globalization and say -- and you have shown a humanistic

815
00:31:28.300 --> 00:31:31.067
instinct in terms of the way-- your life.

816
00:31:31.067 --> 00:31:33.601
And you've had people like David Broder and Bill Moyers and all

817
00:31:33.601 --> 00:31:36.033
those people as colleagues and associates and you've sought out

818
00:31:36.033 --> 00:31:38.334
their wisdom in terms of how-- looking at the future.

819
00:31:38.334 --> 00:31:41.601
Um, that globalization -- look at what happened in Seattle.

820
00:31:41.601 --> 00:31:44.667
Look at what happened in Washington.

821
00:31:44.667 --> 00:31:47.767
People who raised real concerns in saying, you know, it's too

822
00:31:47.767 --> 00:31:50.400
American driven and it's too insensitive to cultural and

823
00:31:50.400 --> 00:31:53.133
other issues in countries around the world.

824
00:31:53.133 --> 00:31:56.434
I think it is American driven, although it is

825
00:31:56.434 --> 00:31:59.367
now becoming more balanced.

826
00:31:59.367 --> 00:32:02.300
Certainly our deal is-- will be a contributor to that.

827
00:32:02.300 --> 00:32:05.434
I think you have to separate globalization from the economic

828
00:32:05.434 --> 00:32:08.033
impact and the human impact.

829
00:32:08.033 --> 00:32:10.868
The economic impact makes sense for almost everybody.

830
00:32:10.868 --> 00:32:13.767
Alan Greenspan gave a speech last night; I was there talking

831
00:32:13.767 --> 00:32:16.434
to him.

832
00:32:16.434 --> 00:32:18.968
And in almost every case were you open markets and globalize,

833
00:32:18.968 --> 00:32:21.968
things went better for the country that was involved.

834
00:32:21.968 --> 00:32:24.467
Across the board?

835
00:32:24.467 --> 00:32:26.834
Not just those who had power and influence, but across the

836
00:32:26.834 --> 00:32:29.133
board in terms of the betterment of the people at the bottom end

837
00:32:29.133 --> 00:32:31.334
of the scale?

838
00:32:31.334 --> 00:32:33.534
Across the board,

839
00:32:33.534 --> 00:32:35.267
because they get exposed--

840
00:32:35.267 --> 00:32:36.968
It raised their level?

841
00:32:36.968 --> 00:32:38.701
It raised their level.

842
00:32:38.701 --> 00:32:40.400
The global statistics in terms of-- I mean, 50

843
00:32:40.400 --> 00:32:42.133
percent of the people in the world live on

844
00:32:42.133 --> 00:32:47.000
less than $2 a day. Amazing.

845
00:32:47.000 --> 00:32:49.467
One-third of Americans have no savings.

846
00:32:49.467 --> 00:32:51.834
Twenty percent of Americans live below the poverty line.

847
00:32:51.834 --> 00:32:53.834
That's unacceptable.

848
00:32:53.834 --> 00:32:55.601
It's unacceptable.

849
00:32:55.601 --> 00:32:57.400
It's the responsibility of

850
00:32:57.400 --> 00:32:59.267
you and me and everybody.

851
00:32:59.267 --> 00:33:01.167
Exactly.

852
00:33:01.167 --> 00:33:03.100
And the responsibility is to figure out an integrated

853
00:33:03.100 --> 00:33:04.767
solution to it that actually will bring everybody up.

854
00:33:04.767 --> 00:33:06.534
We sit here and talk about finance and everything -- 50

855
00:33:06.534 --> 00:33:08.133
percent of Americans are not participating in this.

856
00:33:08.133 --> 00:33:09.801
Why is that?

857
00:33:09.801 --> 00:33:11.300
One, they don't have the money.

858
00:33:11.300 --> 00:33:13.033
Right.

859
00:33:13.033 --> 00:33:14.968
Two, they haven't got the education and

860
00:33:14.968 --> 00:33:17.267
the background to do it.

861
00:33:17.267 --> 00:33:19.467
And third, frankly they're not big enough clients for people to

862
00:33:19.467 --> 00:33:22.067
spend a lot of time marketing to them.

863
00:33:22.067 --> 00:33:24.601
That's why social security needs to have a component that's in

864
00:33:24.601 --> 00:33:27.133
the market.

865
00:33:27.133 --> 00:33:29.467
It isn't just to get better returns, it's to empower people

866
00:33:29.467 --> 00:33:31.734
to be part of this great capitalist system.

867
00:33:31.734 --> 00:33:33.667
These people don't really think they're part of it.

868
00:33:33.667 --> 00:33:35.400
And that's the serious issue.

869
00:33:35.400 --> 00:33:37.434
And that's one of the things that I'd like to work on.

870
00:33:37.434 --> 00:33:40.033
It's partly education.

871
00:33:40.033 --> 00:33:42.267
It's partly government.

872
00:33:42.267 --> 00:33:44.434
It's partly being practical.

873
00:33:44.434 --> 00:33:46.667
But it's solely about and wholly about the whole integration of

874
00:33:46.667 --> 00:33:48.834
our society.

875
00:33:48.834 --> 00:33:50.701
And we should want to do it because it's the right thing.

876
00:33:50.701 --> 00:33:52.934
But we should also want to do it because if we don't do it, it's

877
00:33:52.934 --> 00:33:55.133
going to create even more problems.

878
00:33:55.133 --> 00:33:57.367
Yeah.

879
00:33:57.367 --> 00:33:59.601
It is this notion that if this-- if our

880
00:33:59.601 --> 00:34:01.801
firm belief in capitalism

881
00:34:01.801 --> 00:34:04.701
and free markets is so strong, then we also ought to believe

882
00:34:04.701 --> 00:34:07.133
that it has to-- a rising tide raises all boats.

883
00:34:07.133 --> 00:34:09.467
And to make sure somehow that we haven't forgotten.

884
00:34:09.467 --> 00:34:11.801
Because if you don't, there's a fissure in the social fabric.

885
00:34:11.801 --> 00:34:13.834
That's right.

886
00:34:13.834 --> 00:34:15.634
That will come back to snap us.

887
00:34:15.634 --> 00:34:17.434
But the rising tide to raise all boats assumes

888
00:34:17.434 --> 00:34:19.400
that everybody has a boat.

889
00:34:19.400 --> 00:34:21.434
Right.

890
00:34:21.434 --> 00:34:23.501
That's where we'll have to make sure that

891
00:34:23.501 --> 00:34:26.033
they're in a boat that has the opportunity to rise.

892
00:34:26.033 --> 00:34:28.834
DONALD MARRON, thank you so much.

893
00:34:28.834 --> 00:34:31.934
DONALD MARRON of PaineWebber-- chairman of PaineWebber.

894
00:34:31.934 --> 00:34:34.901
Set a price and somebody was prepared to pay it and provide

895
00:34:34.901 --> 00:34:37.367
the kind of combination that he found attractive.

896
00:34:37.367 --> 00:34:39.734
It is the lead financial story today and everybody from Wall

897
00:34:39.734 --> 00:34:41.701
Street to places around the world are talking about it.

898
00:34:41.701 --> 00:34:43.400
Thank you.

899
00:34:43.400 --> 00:34:46.167
Thank you, Charlie.

900
00:34:46.167 --> 00:34:48.934
A pleasure.

901
00:34:48.934 --> 00:34:51.701
Back in a moment.

902
00:34:51.701 --> 00:34:54.467
Stay with us. STEPHEN JAY GOULD Finds Interest

903
00:34:54.467 --> 00:34:57.267
in Scientific Errors

904
00:34:57.267 --> 00:35:00.801
STEPHEN JAY GOULD has been called America's

905
00:35:00.801 --> 00:35:03.701
unofficial evolutionist laureate.

906
00:35:03.701 --> 00:35:06.534
A professor of zoology and geology at Harvard, he's also

907
00:35:06.534 --> 00:35:09.467
written a column for Natural History magazine for

908
00:35:09.467 --> 00:35:12.300
the past 27 years.

909
00:35:12.300 --> 00:35:15.033
His writing has been credited with making complex subjects,

910
00:35:15.033 --> 00:35:17.334
such as geology, evolutionary biology, and the history of

911
00:35:17.334 --> 00:35:19.934
science accessible to a general audience.

912
00:35:19.934 --> 00:35:22.501
Recently, he announced that he will stop writing his column at

913
00:35:22.501 --> 00:35:24.767
year's end.

914
00:35:24.767 --> 00:35:26.968
His most recent book, The Lying Stones of Marrakech, is Gould's

915
00:35:26.968 --> 00:35:28.868
penultimate book in a series of collected

916
00:35:28.868 --> 00:35:31.267
essays from the magazine.

917
00:35:31.267 --> 00:35:33.334
As always, I am pleased to have him at this table.

918
00:35:33.334 --> 00:35:35.133
Welcome back.

919
00:35:35.133 --> 00:35:37.000
Thank you, Charlie, always happy

920
00:35:37.000 --> 00:35:38.901
to be here.

921
00:35:38.901 --> 00:35:40.901
Ah, thank you.

922
00:35:40.901 --> 00:35:43.167
Let me -- why have you stopped writing for Natural History?

923
00:35:43.167 --> 00:35:45.400
Well, it's the Joe DiMaggio-Michael Jordan

924
00:35:45.400 --> 00:35:47.567
principle, quit while they still want you, you know.

925
00:35:47.567 --> 00:35:49.701
Actually, January 2001, besides--

926
00:35:49.701 --> 00:35:52.167
Speaking of two heroes of yours.

927
00:35:52.167 --> 00:35:54.501
Yes, indeed.

928
00:35:54.501 --> 00:35:57.133
January 2001, besides being the millennium by half the world's

929
00:35:57.133 --> 00:35:59.901
calculations, or 10 percent, is the month of my 300th continuous

930
00:35:59.901 --> 00:36:02.634
essay, having never missed a deadline.

931
00:36:02.634 --> 00:36:04.968
If there was ever a time that said, if you're going to stop,

932
00:36:04.968 --> 00:36:07.467
stop now, number 300, at the last possible millennial date --

933
00:36:07.467 --> 00:36:09.868
I don't want to be like the aging diva making her sixth

934
00:36:09.868 --> 00:36:11.767
farewell tour.

935
00:36:11.767 --> 00:36:13.667
I'm not going to stop writing, I'll just stop writing monthly

936
00:36:13.667 --> 00:36:15.567
essays, (unintelligible)--

937
00:36:15.567 --> 00:36:17.434
So you'll continue to write books, and you'll

938
00:36:17.434 --> 00:36:19.334
continue to--

939
00:36:19.334 --> 00:36:21.100
Oh, I'll -- sure.

940
00:36:21.100 --> 00:36:22.901
--you'll continue to teach.

941
00:36:22.901 --> 00:36:24.667
Sure.

942
00:36:24.667 --> 00:36:26.434
You're teaching both at Harvard and

943
00:36:26.434 --> 00:36:28.033
here in New York?

944
00:36:28.033 --> 00:36:29.634
Yes, teach in the spring semester at

945
00:36:29.634 --> 00:36:31.267
Harvard, and most of the rest of the time at

946
00:36:31.267 --> 00:36:32.868
You -- your Ph.D. is in paleontology

947
00:36:32.868 --> 00:36:34.467
from Columbia, correct?

948
00:36:34.467 --> 00:36:36.534
Yes, right.

949
00:36:36.534 --> 00:36:38.567
But you teach geology?

950
00:36:38.567 --> 00:36:40.601
Well, paleontology is in between the

951
00:36:40.601 --> 00:36:42.601
two fields, because you need geological methods to find

952
00:36:42.601 --> 00:36:44.367
fossils, but their interpretation in the light of

953
00:36:44.367 --> 00:36:45.934
evolution is primarily biological.

954
00:36:45.934 --> 00:36:47.634
So paleontologists have always been

955
00:36:47.634 --> 00:36:49.367
trained in both disciplines.

956
00:36:49.367 --> 00:36:51.200
The field sits in between.

957
00:36:51.200 --> 00:36:53.067
But it's a love affair with fossils.

958
00:36:53.067 --> 00:36:54.968
Oh, yes, yes.

959
00:36:54.968 --> 00:36:56.901
Begun as, for all city boys, me being a New Yorker, as obvious

960
00:36:56.901 --> 00:36:58.834
from my accent, with me it started at the Museum of Natural

961
00:36:58.834 --> 00:37:01.133
History, which is where I got my degree later.

962
00:37:01.133 --> 00:37:03.367
Your father was what?

963
00:37:03.367 --> 00:37:05.067
I remember this great story--

964
00:37:05.067 --> 00:37:06.734
He was a court stenographer--

965
00:37:06.734 --> 00:37:08.434
That's right.

966
00:37:08.434 --> 00:37:10.133
--but when he came back from his Navy stint

967
00:37:10.133 --> 00:37:11.834
in World War II, I was a little kid, he -- as a reacquaintance

968
00:37:11.834 --> 00:37:13.634
ritual -- I actually am one of those New Yorkers who've seen

969
00:37:13.634 --> 00:37:15.467
the Statue of Liberty, has actually been in Grant's Tomb,

970
00:37:15.467 --> 00:37:17.100
believe it or not, where Grant is buried, as Groucho Marx would

971
00:37:17.100 --> 00:37:18.834
have told you.

972
00:37:18.834 --> 00:37:20.667
And one of the trips was inevitably the

973
00:37:20.667 --> 00:37:22.534
Museum of Natural History.

974
00:37:22.534 --> 00:37:24.467
And when I saw that Tyrannosaurus, I said, That's

975
00:37:24.467 --> 00:37:26.400
it, you know--

976
00:37:26.400 --> 00:37:28.334
Did you really say, That's it?

977
00:37:28.334 --> 00:37:30.400
--never--

978
00:37:30.400 --> 00:37:31.701
I mean, the -- it was a lifelong--

979
00:37:31.701 --> 00:37:32.968
Yes, oh, yes.

980
00:37:32.968 --> 00:37:34.267
--obsession and love affair.

981
00:37:34.267 --> 00:37:35.534
I never wavered. My father would say to me

982
00:37:35.534 --> 00:37:36.834
when I was a child, he said, ''You know--'' Because he knew I

983
00:37:36.834 --> 00:37:38.100
was stubborn.

984
00:37:38.100 --> 00:37:39.601
He'd say, ''You know, you don't have to be a paleontologist just

985
00:37:39.601 --> 00:37:41.067
because you said you wanted to.

986
00:37:41.067 --> 00:37:42.567
But if you want to be, that's fine.'' But--

987
00:37:42.567 --> 00:37:43.868
The Lying Stones of Marrakech, let's just talk

988
00:37:43.868 --> 00:37:45.167
about the first one.

989
00:37:45.167 --> 00:37:46.501
I mean, where does that story come from?

990
00:37:46.501 --> 00:37:47.801
That's -- is the title of

991
00:37:47.801 --> 00:37:49.100
this book, this is

992
00:37:49.100 --> 00:37:50.968
one of the 30 or so essays.

993
00:37:50.968 --> 00:37:53.033
And I guess it began, like most of the essays, serendipitously.

994
00:37:53.033 --> 00:37:55.300
I was taking a family trip to Morocco.

995
00:37:55.300 --> 00:37:57.901
Now, you may know, and I'm sure a lot of the readers and

996
00:37:57.901 --> 00:38:00.200
watchers will be aware, that any time you go into a rock shop

997
00:38:00.200 --> 00:38:02.334
anywhere in the world, there are these fossil nautiloids, these

998
00:38:02.334 --> 00:38:04.634
straight relatives of the modern chambered nautilus, that are

999
00:38:04.634 --> 00:38:06.601
just ubiquitous in black rocks.

1000
00:38:06.601 --> 00:38:08.734
They all come from Morocco.

1001
00:38:08.734 --> 00:38:11.200
I wanted to make sure Morocco wasn't being quarried away, so I

1002
00:38:11.200 --> 00:38:13.300
made some inquiries.

1003
00:38:13.300 --> 00:38:15.601
But one of the things I saw when I was in Marrakech in some

1004
00:38:15.601 --> 00:38:17.834
of the rock stores there is that a lot of those fossils are

1005
00:38:17.834 --> 00:38:20.133
outright fakes.

1006
00:38:20.133 --> 00:38:22.367
They're carved, and they're carved in such a way --

1007
00:38:22.367 --> 00:38:24.567
basically they make a plaster cast.

1008
00:38:24.567 --> 00:38:27.000
They cut a rock in half and they stick the plaster cast on top,

1009
00:38:27.000 --> 00:38:29.667
and then they -- it's very cleverly done.

1010
00:38:29.667 --> 00:38:32.267
It wouldn't fool a professional.

1011
00:38:32.267 --> 00:38:34.601
But some of the plas -- some of the fakes that are made today in

1012
00:38:34.601 --> 00:38:37.100
Morocco, there are such uncanny similarities to the most famous

1013
00:38:37.100 --> 00:38:39.834
example of fraud in the history of paleontology, goes right back

1014
00:38:39.834 --> 00:38:42.868
to 1726.

1015
00:38:42.868 --> 00:38:45.901
And so I wrote an essay about the famous Lying Stones of

1016
00:38:45.901 --> 00:38:48.834
Wurzburg, which is the 1726 prank played against -- not

1017
00:38:48.834 --> 00:38:51.934
prank, actually, you know, it was an attempt by two of his

1018
00:38:51.934 --> 00:38:55.000
jealous colleagues to hoodwink and embarrass him against a

1019
00:38:55.000 --> 00:38:58.100
dilettantish German professor named Beringer.

1020
00:38:58.100 --> 00:39:01.334
And I was trying to point out that although we can laugh at

1021
00:39:01.334 --> 00:39:05.300
Beringer because he should have recognized that a spider's web

1022
00:39:05.300 --> 00:39:08.968
or Hebrew letters were not real fossils, that after all, in the

1023
00:39:08.968 --> 00:39:12.033
18th century, people didn't know how to interpret fossils.

1024
00:39:12.033 --> 00:39:14.000
You're revising Beringer's reputation--

1025
00:39:14.000 --> 00:39:15.968
Oh, yes--

1026
00:39:15.968 --> 00:39:17.934
--in part.

1027
00:39:17.934 --> 00:39:19.901
--I mean, he doesn't -- isn't going to come

1028
00:39:19.901 --> 00:39:21.868
across as a great scholar. But the point is, in the early 18th

1029
00:39:21.868 --> 00:39:23.868
century, nobody was sure

1030
00:39:23.868 --> 00:39:26.434
what -- if you found a fish in a rock, if you thought the earth

1031
00:39:26.434 --> 00:39:28.601
was 5,000 years old and rocks were part of the original

1032
00:39:28.601 --> 00:39:31.000
constitution of the earth, how did it get there?

1033
00:39:31.000 --> 00:39:33.367
People didn't realize that rocks formed from sediments

1034
00:39:33.367 --> 00:39:35.801
deposited in lakes and oceans.

1035
00:39:35.801 --> 00:39:38.100
And so it was reasonable, if you found odd things in rocks, to

1036
00:39:38.100 --> 00:39:40.434
assume that they weren't true plants and animals, but they

1037
00:39:40.434 --> 00:39:42.400
were some manifestation of some kind of force in the mineral

1038
00:39:42.400 --> 00:39:45.000
kingdom that could mimic natural objects.

1039
00:39:45.000 --> 00:39:47.501
So even to find a sun or a moon or Hebrew letters wasn't

1040
00:39:47.501 --> 00:39:49.901
necessarily ridiculous.

1041
00:39:49.901 --> 00:39:52.367
However, in the 20th century, to be taken in by identical frauds

1042
00:39:52.367 --> 00:39:54.701
for purely commercial motivation is ridiculous, and I was trying

1043
00:39:54.701 --> 00:39:56.968
to make that contrast.

1044
00:39:56.968 --> 00:39:59.400
There's also a story in here of Galileo.

1045
00:39:59.400 --> 00:40:01.934
What's that story?

1046
00:40:01.934 --> 00:40:04.601
Because, and I'm bringing that one up in particular

1047
00:40:04.601 --> 00:40:07.501
because I-- A -- Galileo, but -- B -- you love biography.

1048
00:40:07.501 --> 00:40:10.200
Oh, yes.

1049
00:40:10.200 --> 00:40:12.734
No, I think if I try to do anything -- I've looked back,

1050
00:40:12.734 --> 00:40:15.100
inevitably, as you age, and you come to essay number 300, you

1051
00:40:15.100 --> 00:40:17.567
try and look back and see, are there trends

1052
00:40:17.567 --> 00:40:20.033
through this series?

1053
00:40:20.033 --> 00:40:22.501
And if there's one thing I think I've figured out in

1054
00:40:22.501 --> 00:40:24.968
writing these, it's to develop a style where I

1055
00:40:24.968 --> 00:40:27.434
try to capture the

1056
00:40:27.434 --> 00:40:30.100
most important intellectual themes of great scientists' or

1057
00:40:30.100 --> 00:40:33.100
not-so-great scientists' lives within essays.

1058
00:40:33.100 --> 00:40:35.734
I think it's do-able.

1059
00:40:35.734 --> 00:40:38.467
Obviously you don't want a biography, it's only an essay.

1060
00:40:38.467 --> 00:40:41.133
But I think you can capture the essence of a person's nature,

1061
00:40:41.133 --> 00:40:43.834
contributions, and thoughts.

1062
00:40:43.834 --> 00:40:46.133
And with Galileo, who's one of my heroes, one of any practicing

1063
00:40:46.133 --> 00:40:48.701
scientist's heroes, I really thought it was interesting to

1064
00:40:48.701 --> 00:40:51.367
focus on his most famous error, which most

1065
00:40:51.367 --> 00:40:53.868
people don't talk about.

1066
00:40:53.868 --> 00:40:56.267
He saw the faces of Venus, he resolved the Milky Way as stars,

1067
00:40:56.267 --> 00:40:58.534
he saw the moons of Jupiter, he saw the craters of the moon.

1068
00:40:58.534 --> 00:41:00.767
But when he trained his telescope, which wasn't very

1069
00:41:00.767 --> 00:41:02.534
good, on Saturn, he didn't see the rings.

1070
00:41:02.534 --> 00:41:04.267
First of all, his optics--

1071
00:41:04.267 --> 00:41:06.033
He didn't see it.

1072
00:41:06.033 --> 00:41:07.801
--his optics weren't good enough. And I

1073
00:41:07.801 --> 00:41:09.567
don't think he had any mental space for the notion of a

1074
00:41:09.567 --> 00:41:11.334
planet with rings around it.

1075
00:41:11.334 --> 00:41:13.100
So he finally decided that it -- Saturn must be

1076
00:41:13.100 --> 00:41:14.868
a threefold body.

1077
00:41:14.868 --> 00:41:17.467
It must have a central sphere and two little spheres on the

1078
00:41:17.467 --> 00:41:19.901
side, because that's how he conceptualized the rings.

1079
00:41:19.901 --> 00:41:22.601
And the point I was trying to make is that science and theory

1080
00:41:22.601 --> 00:41:24.901
are not just pure observation.

1081
00:41:24.901 --> 00:41:27.367
The great scientist isn't just a better observer.

1082
00:41:27.367 --> 00:41:29.901
Science is a complex, interesting mixture of theory

1083
00:41:29.901 --> 00:41:32.067
and fact.

1084
00:41:32.067 --> 00:41:34.467
And here even this great man, Galileo, with poor optics, he

1085
00:41:34.467 --> 00:41:36.534
didn't have theoretical space for the notion of a ring around

1086
00:41:36.534 --> 00:41:38.567
a planet.

1087
00:41:38.567 --> 00:41:40.601
The best he could do was to make an odd conjecture that Saturn

1088
00:41:40.601 --> 00:41:42.400
was a threefold body.

1089
00:41:42.400 --> 00:41:44.501
Back to my point.

1090
00:41:44.501 --> 00:41:46.901
The best way to tell stories is through biography.

1091
00:41:46.901 --> 00:41:49.334
I think so.

1092
00:41:49.334 --> 00:41:51.767
Not -- my favorite museums in the world are the Casa Museum in

1093
00:41:51.767 --> 00:41:53.934
Paris and the Turner Wing of the old Tate Gallery in London,

1094
00:41:53.934 --> 00:41:56.267
because they present the lives of these two consummate

1095
00:41:56.267 --> 00:41:58.601
painters, absolutely chronologically.

1096
00:41:58.601 --> 00:42:00.868
That's how you can see.

1097
00:42:00.868 --> 00:42:02.801
There's nothing better than the chronology of a human lifetime.

1098
00:42:02.801 --> 00:42:04.501
And with Picasso, I mean, if you look at his

1099
00:42:04.501 --> 00:42:06.267
portraits, you can see the evolution of a life, you can see

1100
00:42:06.267 --> 00:42:08.300
how he felt about everything.

1101
00:42:08.300 --> 00:42:10.567
Yes.

1102
00:42:10.567 --> 00:42:13.000
And with Turner, you realize these wonderful late paintings,

1103
00:42:13.000 --> 00:42:15.100
which are so impressionistic they're almost modern, he began

1104
00:42:15.100 --> 00:42:17.133
as a very conservative draftsman, learning the tools

1105
00:42:17.133 --> 00:42:19.200
and -- of the trade, learning how to

1106
00:42:19.200 --> 00:42:20.968
draw in proper perspective.

1107
00:42:20.968 --> 00:42:22.801
And I think there's something wonderful about that.

1108
00:42:22.801 --> 00:42:24.701
Is the history of science best

1109
00:42:24.701 --> 00:42:27.234
told through biography?

1110
00:42:27.234 --> 00:42:29.667
Not in every subject.

1111
00:42:29.667 --> 00:42:32.000
It's the way I seem to come to better terms, in part because

1112
00:42:32.000 --> 00:42:34.267
I'm not a social historian, I can't claim to have strong

1113
00:42:34.267 --> 00:42:36.868
knowledge of the whole social context of the time, but I think

1114
00:42:36.868 --> 00:42:39.667
I can, because I love to read original works, and I can

1115
00:42:39.667 --> 00:42:42.000
usually read them in the language they were written in, I

1116
00:42:42.000 --> 00:42:44.000
think I can get a handle on a person's writings.

1117
00:42:44.000 --> 00:42:46.033
And what's the story in here about this British

1118
00:42:46.033 --> 00:42:49.767
-- J.B.S. Haldane?

1119
00:42:49.767 --> 00:42:51.767
Oh, yes, one of the great biologists of the

1120
00:42:51.767 --> 00:42:54.133
20th century.

1121
00:42:54.133 --> 00:42:56.400
Again, it's a -- almost the same theme as Galileo, namely--

1122
00:42:56.400 --> 00:42:58.667
What was his mistake?

1123
00:42:58.667 --> 00:43:00.901
--that great scientists can make very great

1124
00:43:00.901 --> 00:43:03.133
mistakes, because they're caught in biases of their social time.

1125
00:43:03.133 --> 00:43:05.367
Yes, Haldane was this wonderful, very eccentric

1126
00:43:05.367 --> 00:43:07.634
biologist, but he

1127
00:43:07.634 --> 00:43:10.567
was a leftist, a Marxist, even a member of the Communist Party,

1128
00:43:10.567 --> 00:43:13.300
certainly his egalitarian reputation was high.

1129
00:43:13.300 --> 00:43:15.634
And yet he wrote a book in 1924 praising poison gas at Thalonica

1130
00:43:15.634 --> 00:43:17.601
(sp), saying it was more humane.

1131
00:43:17.601 --> 00:43:19.834
I mean, war is inhumane, of

1132
00:43:19.834 --> 00:43:21.901
course, he loved (unintelligible).

1133
00:43:21.901 --> 00:43:24.300
And there has to be war.

1134
00:43:24.300 --> 00:43:27.234
He thought that poison gas would not be more destructive,

1135
00:43:27.234 --> 00:43:30.434
ultimately, than bullets.

1136
00:43:30.434 --> 00:43:33.400
And he even conjectured, just to show how wrong scientists can

1137
00:43:33.400 --> 00:43:36.133
be, that atomic energy could be more dangerous, but the prospect

1138
00:43:36.133 --> 00:43:39.334
of that ever being done within 100 human lifetimes to make

1139
00:43:39.334 --> 00:43:42.701
explosive devices out of it was negligible.

1140
00:43:42.701 --> 00:43:46.000
Of course, 20 years later, we had Hiroshima.

1141
00:43:46.000 --> 00:43:49.501
But the error he made was marvelous, and it shows how,

1142
00:43:49.501 --> 00:43:52.968
egalitarian though you may be in your soul, in your heart and

1143
00:43:52.968 --> 00:43:56.400
context you may still live in a racist world.

1144
00:43:56.400 --> 00:43:59.767
Because he discovered that many African peoples were effectively

1145
00:43:59.767 --> 00:44:02.534
immune to certain mustard gases, and so he said, All right, now

1146
00:44:02.534 --> 00:44:05.334
the armies can refurnish themselves with black troops.

1147
00:44:05.334 --> 00:44:07.968
And all of a sudden he worries, who's going

1148
00:44:07.968 --> 00:44:10.501
to be their officers?

1149
00:44:10.501 --> 00:44:12.901
It was inconceivable to him that there

1150
00:44:12.901 --> 00:44:15.501
might be black officers.

1151
00:44:15.501 --> 00:44:18.167
It's like the quarterback in football, the baseball manager

1152
00:44:18.167 --> 00:44:20.934
following all over again.

1153
00:44:20.934 --> 00:44:23.634
And so this man who supposedly had such good egalitarian

1154
00:44:23.634 --> 00:44:26.634
instincts says, Thank goodness, 20 percent of whites are also

1155
00:44:26.634 --> 00:44:29.567
immune, so there will be enough white officers to command these

1156
00:44:29.567 --> 00:44:32.501
black troops -- never occurring to him-- It's like this famous

1157
00:44:32.501 --> 00:44:35.567
story, which is also true, when the 20th century dawned, one of

1158
00:44:35.567 --> 00:44:38.400
the major European car manufacturers actually predicted

1159
00:44:38.400 --> 00:44:41.100
that the automobile would be a successful invention in Europe

1160
00:44:41.100 --> 00:44:43.868
but would never be enormously productive or profit making

1161
00:44:43.868 --> 00:44:46.434
because there would never be a call for more than a million

1162
00:44:46.434 --> 00:44:48.868
automobiles at population levels

1163
00:44:48.868 --> 00:44:51.400
at that time. Why?

1164
00:44:51.400 --> 00:44:54.067
Because that was the maximum number of people in the lower

1165
00:44:54.067 --> 00:44:56.634
classes who could be trained as chauffeurs.

1166
00:44:56.634 --> 00:44:59.133
Now, if you just think of the errors involved there, first of

1167
00:44:59.133 --> 00:45:01.334
all, the notion that argues a single number, that it's ranked

1168
00:45:01.334 --> 00:45:03.400
in order through our social classes, but also the idea that

1169
00:45:03.400 --> 00:45:05.467
a rich person or a woman would never

1170
00:45:05.467 --> 00:45:07.400
drive their own automobile.

1171
00:45:07.400 --> 00:45:09.300
So you see how stuck we get.

1172
00:45:09.300 --> 00:45:11.234
Racism and ignorance prevailed.

1173
00:45:11.234 --> 00:45:13.167
And we ought to be aware that

1174
00:45:13.167 --> 00:45:15.100
it's in all of

1175
00:45:15.100 --> 00:45:17.901
us, and we have to always be vigilant.

1176
00:45:17.901 --> 00:45:20.334
Jim Watson here recently said essentially this,

1177
00:45:20.334 --> 00:45:22.901
the last half of the 20th century belonged to the

1178
00:45:22.901 --> 00:45:25.067
physicist, the first half of the 21st century would belong to

1179
00:45:25.067 --> 00:45:27.200
molecular biologists.

1180
00:45:27.200 --> 00:45:29.601
That may be slightly imperialistic from

1181
00:45:29.601 --> 00:45:31.901
Jim's own profession.

1182
00:45:31.901 --> 00:45:34.167
But I don't think it's wrong.

1183
00:45:34.167 --> 00:45:36.834
I think it's certainly true that--

1184
00:45:36.834 --> 00:45:39.534
Human genome and all that.

1185
00:45:39.534 --> 00:45:42.200
--medical advances and genetic sequencing

1186
00:45:42.200 --> 00:45:44.701
and identification, major technological changes, at least

1187
00:45:44.701 --> 00:45:46.834
in the coming couple decades, are going to be more there, and

1188
00:45:46.834 --> 00:45:48.701
in information technology, which I confess I don't understand,

1189
00:45:48.701 --> 00:45:50.567
since I still write on a typewriter.

1190
00:45:50.567 --> 00:45:52.868
You don't?

1191
00:45:52.868 --> 00:45:55.133
No.

1192
00:45:55.133 --> 00:45:57.667
You have not, being a man of science, you have

1193
00:45:57.667 --> 00:45:59.868
not said, technology which is such a tool that we can use?

1194
00:45:59.868 --> 00:46:02.100
It's a great tool.

1195
00:46:02.100 --> 00:46:04.267
I use it in my research all the time.

1196
00:46:04.267 --> 00:46:06.400
I type on a typewriter.

1197
00:46:06.400 --> 00:46:08.234
But here, you know, here's another -- here's a

1198
00:46:08.234 --> 00:46:10.400
story just today's paper, ''Cancer Study Deemphasizes

1199
00:46:10.400 --> 00:46:12.501
Genes' Role.'' This is the old nurture-nature

1200
00:46:12.501 --> 00:46:14.567
thing that's constant.

1201
00:46:14.567 --> 00:46:15.868
But again, it is about--

1202
00:46:15.868 --> 00:46:17.133
But can--

1203
00:46:17.133 --> 00:46:18.434
Sorry?

1204
00:46:18.434 --> 00:46:19.534
But cancer's a whole class of diseases,

1205
00:46:19.534 --> 00:46:20.634
it's -- some of which have strong environmental inputs, others

1206
00:46:20.634 --> 00:46:21.734
of which -- see, I think of people -- see--

1207
00:46:21.734 --> 00:46:22.834
Because there's a story in The New England

1208
00:46:22.834 --> 00:46:23.901
Journal of Medicine,

1209
00:46:23.901 --> 00:46:25.701
which you know.

1210
00:46:25.701 --> 00:46:27.667
I haven't seen that particular story.

1211
00:46:27.667 --> 00:46:29.467
Well, go ahead.

1212
00:46:29.467 --> 00:46:31.734
No, I only wanted to say that cancer's an

1213
00:46:31.734 --> 00:46:33.667
-- it's an enormous class of diseases.

1214
00:46:33.667 --> 00:46:35.667
It's not one disease.

1215
00:46:35.667 --> 00:46:37.300
I would say cancer is equal in its variety to all the bacterial

1216
00:46:37.300 --> 00:46:38.968
diseases put together.

1217
00:46:38.968 --> 00:46:40.601
Bacterial diseases are when foreign agents get into your

1218
00:46:40.601 --> 00:46:42.267
body, cancer is when one of your own cells goes

1219
00:46:42.267 --> 00:46:43.834
slightly awry and

1220
00:46:43.834 --> 00:46:45.400
starts proliferating.

1221
00:46:45.400 --> 00:46:46.968
Cancer's more difficult because it's hard to recognize a

1222
00:46:46.968 --> 00:46:48.567
slightly altered version of your own cell

1223
00:46:48.567 --> 00:46:50.133
than it is to recognize

1224
00:46:50.133 --> 00:46:52.634
a bacterial invader, so -- so-- The only thing I'm saying is

1225
00:46:52.634 --> 00:46:55.334
that I think the core -- because there are so many different

1226
00:46:55.334 --> 00:46:57.734
cancers, it's a catch-all name for an enormous range of

1227
00:46:57.734 --> 00:47:00.033
diseases, that some will be strongly environmentally

1228
00:47:00.033 --> 00:47:02.000
triggered and others will be largely inherited and most will

1229
00:47:02.000 --> 00:47:04.000
have components of both.

1230
00:47:04.000 --> 00:47:06.067
And that's partly what they point out, using

1231
00:47:06.067 --> 00:47:08.200
medical twins.

1232
00:47:08.200 --> 00:47:10.467
That's the point they make, in part.

1233
00:47:10.467 --> 00:47:12.734
But giving -- recently the sense has seen that, you know, genes

1234
00:47:12.734 --> 00:47:14.701
were destiny, and this was sort of -- well, this article in The

1235
00:47:14.701 --> 00:47:16.667
New England Journal of Medicine basically said (unintelligible)

1236
00:47:16.667 --> 00:47:18.400
forgotten where these sciences were from, basically said, Wait,

1237
00:47:18.400 --> 00:47:20.200
not so fast.

1238
00:47:20.200 --> 00:47:22.067
Good, I'm happy to see that

1239
00:47:22.067 --> 00:47:24.000
point being made.

1240
00:47:24.000 --> 00:47:26.000
Because that is the danger, because the technology is so

1241
00:47:26.000 --> 00:47:28.501
powerful it can lead to that exaggerated thinking that

1242
00:47:28.501 --> 00:47:30.601
everything's in the genes, and that's--

1243
00:47:30.601 --> 00:47:32.734
Exactly.

1244
00:47:32.734 --> 00:47:34.834
--clearly not correct.

1245
00:47:34.834 --> 00:47:36.934
Evolution, have you changed your mind about the

1246
00:47:36.934 --> 00:47:39.067
-- not about evolution, but about any great scientific

1247
00:47:39.067 --> 00:47:41.434
precept that you carried away from graduate school and from

1248
00:47:41.434 --> 00:47:43.701
early academic life?

1249
00:47:43.701 --> 00:47:45.901
Oh, of course,

1250
00:47:45.901 --> 00:47:48.067
(unintelligible) sciences--

1251
00:47:48.067 --> 00:47:49.934
Well, like what?

1252
00:47:49.934 --> 00:47:51.601
--that kind of change. I was--

1253
00:47:51.601 --> 00:47:53.133
Because of new discoveries made you--

1254
00:47:53.133 --> 00:47:54.834
--classically--

1255
00:47:54.834 --> 00:47:56.667
--rethink, what?

1256
00:47:56.667 --> 00:47:58.601
Oh, sure. I was classically trained.

1257
00:47:58.601 --> 00:48:00.634
I thought paleontology, when I graduated, that the history of

1258
00:48:00.634 --> 00:48:02.400
life was an accumulation of events of natural selection and

1259
00:48:02.400 --> 00:48:04.234
that mass extinctions which were recorded in the fossil record

1260
00:48:04.234 --> 00:48:06.100
were just an acceleration of the ordinary, maybe just climatic

1261
00:48:06.100 --> 00:48:08.000
change was bigger.

1262
00:48:08.000 --> 00:48:09.667
And now we now that at least one of the major mass extinctions

1263
00:48:09.667 --> 00:48:11.434
was triggered by a catastrophic extraterrestrial impact.

1264
00:48:11.434 --> 00:48:13.000
And that really makes you re--

1265
00:48:13.000 --> 00:48:14.701
Which one was that?

1266
00:48:14.701 --> 00:48:16.067
Well, the Cretaceous one 65

1267
00:48:16.067 --> 00:48:17.400
million years ago--

1268
00:48:17.400 --> 00:48:18.734
Right.

1269
00:48:18.734 --> 00:48:20.067
--that wiped out the dinosaurs and gave us

1270
00:48:20.067 --> 00:48:21.434
a chance.

1271
00:48:21.434 --> 00:48:23.033
We wouldn't be here talking today if that hadn't happened,

1272
00:48:23.033 --> 00:48:24.467
because I presume dinosaurs would--

1273
00:48:24.467 --> 00:48:25.934
That was 165--

1274
00:48:25.934 --> 00:48:27.400
Sixty-five million years ago.

1275
00:48:27.400 --> 00:48:28.868
Sixty-five.

1276
00:48:28.868 --> 00:48:30.334
Yes. And mammals had always been around,

1277
00:48:30.334 --> 00:48:31.801
and they had never made

1278
00:48:31.801 --> 00:48:33.467
any inroads in competition against dinosaurs for 130

1279
00:48:33.467 --> 00:48:35.467
million years or so.

1280
00:48:35.467 --> 00:48:37.467
So something external had to remove dinosaurs.

1281
00:48:37.467 --> 00:48:39.934
I don't think we'd be here.

1282
00:48:39.934 --> 00:48:42.267
So I think that really causes -- that's -- obviously, that's

1283
00:48:42.267 --> 00:48:45.067
just an explanation for one event.

1284
00:48:45.067 --> 00:48:47.667
But I think the theoretical implications of realizing that a

1285
00:48:47.667 --> 00:48:49.734
good part of the -- a lot of the history of life is still

1286
00:48:49.734 --> 00:48:51.801
controlled by cumulative events and natural selection--

1287
00:48:51.801 --> 00:48:53.868
Right.

1288
00:48:53.868 --> 00:48:55.934
--but to recognize that -- to understand

1289
00:48:55.934 --> 00:48:58.000
the whole pattern of life's history, you also have to factor

1290
00:48:58.000 --> 00:49:00.901
in these occasional environmental catastrophes,

1291
00:49:00.901 --> 00:49:03.400
which must remove species and not simply by ordinary Darwinian

1292
00:49:03.400 --> 00:49:06.234
competition, but just by who luckily has features that allow

1293
00:49:06.234 --> 00:49:09.067
you to get through this catastrophic, unanticipated

1294
00:49:09.067 --> 00:49:11.434
little episode.

1295
00:49:11.434 --> 00:49:14.000
Dinosaurs, I just want you to help me with this,

1296
00:49:14.000 --> 00:49:16.501
because I just -- something I saw -- ran past and

1297
00:49:16.501 --> 00:49:19.200
didn't take notice.

1298
00:49:19.200 --> 00:49:21.868
They now believe dinosaurs are or are not connected to birds?

1299
00:49:21.868 --> 00:49:24.734
Well, I think consensus would have it

1300
00:49:24.734 --> 00:49:27.567
that birds are descended from one lineage of dinosaurs.

1301
00:49:27.567 --> 00:49:30.334
Not from the Tyrannosauruses, not from the Brontosauruses, not

1302
00:49:30.334 --> 00:49:32.767
from the big things, but from the small running carnivores

1303
00:49:32.767 --> 00:49:35.167
that actually look fairly birdlike to begin with.

1304
00:49:35.167 --> 00:49:37.601
But I say that the mistake people make is to assume that

1305
00:49:37.601 --> 00:49:40.000
because birds are descendants of dinosaurs

1306
00:49:40.000 --> 00:49:42.434
that somehow dinosaurs

1307
00:49:42.434 --> 00:49:45.434
are still alive, there are still Tyrannosauruses around.

1308
00:49:45.434 --> 00:49:48.434
That makes about as much sense as saying that ancient

1309
00:49:48.434 --> 00:49:50.801
Astrachoderm (sp) fishes are still around because we're here.

1310
00:49:50.801 --> 00:49:53.133
I mean, we are the descendants of this ancient group of fishes,

1311
00:49:53.133 --> 00:49:55.501
which has entirely disappeared, or (unintelligible) reptiles,

1312
00:49:55.501 --> 00:49:57.834
the metrodon (sp), which are the direct ancestors

1313
00:49:57.834 --> 00:50:00.200
of mammals, are

1314
00:50:00.200 --> 00:50:02.968
still around because we're here.

1315
00:50:02.968 --> 00:50:05.901
The point is, birds are such different kinds of organisms.

1316
00:50:05.901 --> 00:50:08.934
They're smaller than any dinosaurs, they fly, they do

1317
00:50:08.934 --> 00:50:12.167
such different things from the dinosaurs that even though their

1318
00:50:12.167 --> 00:50:15.234
ancestors may be a lineage of dinosaurs, that doesn't mean

1319
00:50:15.234 --> 00:50:18.000
dinosaurs are still here, it means one small branch of the

1320
00:50:18.000 --> 00:50:20.601
big tree of dinosaurs evolved very distantly into birds.

1321
00:50:20.601 --> 00:50:23.467
Finally, evolution -- now, sometimes I --

1322
00:50:23.467 --> 00:50:25.834
there are two things I want to say finally.

1323
00:50:25.834 --> 00:50:27.901
One, evolution -- I sometimes read these pieces where the --

1324
00:50:27.901 --> 00:50:30.434
some of your -- some of the evolutionists are quarreling

1325
00:50:30.434 --> 00:50:32.834
with you.

1326
00:50:32.834 --> 00:50:34.767
What's that about?

1327
00:50:34.767 --> 00:50:36.734
That's (unintelligible)--

1328
00:50:36.734 --> 00:50:38.701
(unintelligible) of science?

1329
00:50:38.701 --> 00:50:40.667
Oh, sure, (unintelligible) disagrees with.

1330
00:50:40.667 --> 00:50:42.601
The main thing I should say, though, is that any healthy

1331
00:50:42.601 --> 00:50:44.868
field is full of disagreements, but no professional scientist

1332
00:50:44.868 --> 00:50:47.100
doubts the factual basis of evolution.

1333
00:50:47.100 --> 00:50:49.267
That, the evolution of life, is--

1334
00:50:49.267 --> 00:50:51.167
Darwin had it right.

1335
00:50:51.167 --> 00:50:52.767
--is effectively beyond dispute.

1336
00:50:52.767 --> 00:50:54.367
Nothing's beyond dispute in science.

1337
00:50:54.367 --> 00:50:56.000
Let me put it this way.

1338
00:50:56.000 --> 00:50:57.601
The fact of evolution is as well confirmed as

1339
00:50:57.601 --> 00:50:59.200
that the earth goes

1340
00:50:59.200 --> 00:51:01.133
around the sun and not visa-versa.

1341
00:51:01.133 --> 00:51:03.067
Right.

1342
00:51:03.067 --> 00:51:04.767
That's all proof can mean in science.

1343
00:51:04.767 --> 00:51:06.534
So what's the big question in evolution?

1344
00:51:06.534 --> 00:51:08.367
Oh, the big questions are mechanisms.

1345
00:51:08.367 --> 00:51:10.234
I mean, how does it happen?

1346
00:51:10.234 --> 00:51:12.133
What's the pattern of the history of life?

1347
00:51:12.133 --> 00:51:14.067
Is natural selection everything?

1348
00:51:14.067 --> 00:51:16.133
There are loads of questions.

1349
00:51:16.133 --> 00:51:18.200
But the factuality of the process is not in doubt.

1350
00:51:18.200 --> 00:51:20.234
I asked this frequently.

1351
00:51:20.234 --> 00:51:22.267
What is the one big question you wish you knew the answer to?

1352
00:51:22.267 --> 00:51:23.868
It's the conventional one, it's that I

1353
00:51:23.868 --> 00:51:25.467
don't know how to get the answer.

1354
00:51:25.467 --> 00:51:27.033
I really would like to know if there is intelligent life

1355
00:51:27.033 --> 00:51:28.634
elsewhere in the universe, which is plausible,

1356
00:51:28.634 --> 00:51:30.234
what it looks like

1357
00:51:30.234 --> 00:51:31.801
and what they have to tell us about the nature of things.

1358
00:51:31.801 --> 00:51:33.501
Because we're probably not very smart compared to what smart

1359
00:51:33.501 --> 00:51:35.033
could be.

1360
00:51:35.033 --> 00:51:36.667
Yes.

1361
00:51:36.667 --> 00:51:38.133
Well, you talked to your friend Carl Sagan about that.

1362
00:51:38.133 --> 00:51:39.501
Oh, yes.

1363
00:51:39.501 --> 00:51:41.033
Yes, because he always said it was arrogant of

1364
00:51:41.033 --> 00:51:45.000
us to assume that there wasn't. Right?

1365
00:51:45.000 --> 00:51:47.467
Yes, I -- I mean, just -- I can't construct

1366
00:51:47.467 --> 00:51:49.901
a principled argument about its probability, but the universe is

1367
00:51:49.901 --> 00:51:52.634
vast, and I figure, since we've only been around for a couple

1368
00:51:52.634 --> 00:51:55.234
hundred thousand years at most as Homo sapiens, if there are

1369
00:51:55.234 --> 00:51:57.767
other forms, they might know a lot more than we do.

1370
00:51:57.767 --> 00:52:01.033
And I'd sure like to get that boost.

1371
00:52:01.033 --> 00:52:04.100
This is -- book is called The Lying Stones of

1372
00:52:04.100 --> 00:52:06.133
Marrakech, Penultimate Reflections in Natural History,

1373
00:52:06.133 --> 00:52:08.167
by STEPHEN JAY GOULD.

1374
00:52:08.167 --> 00:52:10.200
I'll be back to the ultimate ones.

1375
00:52:10.200 --> 00:52:12.234
All right, we want to know that.

1376
00:52:12.234 --> 00:52:14.267
Thank you very much.

1377
00:52:14.267 --> 00:52:16.534
Thank you, Charlie.

1378
00:52:16.534 --> 00:52:18.767
Thank you for joining us.

1379
00:52:18.767 --> 
See you next time.