WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.033 We begin tonight with the ongoing crisis in 2 00:00:02.033 --> 00:00:03.033 Ukraine. 3 00:00:03.033 --> 00:00:05.067 Tensions are high after Russia and allied troops seize 4 00:00:05.067 --> 00:00:08.100 Ukrainian military facilities in Crimea. 5 00:00:08.100 --> 00:00:11.133 Earlier this week Moscow approved a treaty enabling the 6 00:00:11.133 --> 00:00:13.167 region to join Russia. 7 00:00:13.167 --> 00:00:15.200 On Thursday President Obama announced further sanctions on 8 00:00:15.200 --> 00:00:19.267 Russian officials and financial institutions. 9 00:00:19.267 --> 00:00:21.300 This is not our preferred outcome. 10 00:00:21.300 --> 00:00:24.334 These sanctions would not only have a significant impact on the 11 00:00:24.334 --> 00:00:27.367 Russian economy but could also be disruptive to the global 12 00:00:27.367 --> 00:00:29.400 economy. 13 00:00:29.400 --> 00:00:32.434 However, Russia must know that further escalation will only 14 00:00:32.434 --> 00:00:36.501 isolate it further from the international community. 15 00:00:36.501 --> 00:00:37.667 Russian authorities announced sanctions 16 00:00:37.667 --> 00:00:40.667 on U.S. lawmakers and officials in response. 17 00:00:40.667 --> 00:00:44.100 Joining me now is Ian Bremmer, he is the president of Eurasia 18 00:00:44.100 --> 00:00:48.000 Group; and Stephen Cohen, he is a professor at New York and 19 00:00:48.000 --> 00:00:51.567 Princeton University, he's also the author of "Soviet Fates and 20 00:00:51.567 --> 00:00:55.501 Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War"; 21 00:00:55.501 --> 00:00:57.801 and from Washington Stephen Sestanovich, he is a professor 22 00:00:57.801 --> 00:01:00.334 at Columbia University and a senior fellow at the Council on 23 00:01:00.334 --> 00:01:02.567 Foreign Relations. 24 00:01:02.567 --> 00:01:04.734 He wrote the book, "Maximalist: America in the World from 25 00:01:04.734 --> 00:01:07.100 Truman to Obama". 26 00:01:07.100 --> 00:01:09.434 I am pleased to have each of them on this program. 27 00:01:09.434 --> 00:01:11.501 Give me a snapshot of where we are today. 28 00:01:11.501 --> 00:01:13.901 We just heard from the President and then we have the response 29 00:01:13.901 --> 00:01:15.767 from Russia. 30 00:01:15.767 --> 00:01:20.133 Well, where we are today 31 00:01:20.133 --> 00:01:24.434 is that the administration is trying to show 32 00:01:24.434 --> 00:01:28.834 that the first list of measures that it announced on Monday, a 33 00:01:28.834 --> 00:01:32.934 few rather small number of people not particularly closely 34 00:01:32.934 --> 00:01:37.767 related to Putin were given visa bans. 35 00:01:37.767 --> 00:01:40.934 Today they're trying to show they're really much more serious 36 00:01:40.934 --> 00:01:44.167 about it and they've announced a number of measures expanding 37 00:01:44.167 --> 00:01:47.334 the number of individuals who are sanctioned, giving the 38 00:01:47.334 --> 00:01:50.968 President authority to introduce new measures against targeted 39 00:01:50.968 --> 00:01:54.000 sectors of the Russian economy and looking forward to meetings 40 00:01:54.000 --> 00:01:59.033 next week in Europe where the President will be meeting with 41 00:01:59.033 --> 00:02:03.634 other members of the G7 to formulate a broader response. 42 00:02:03.634 --> 00:02:08.033 So broadly speaking this is a step forward in which the 43 00:02:08.033 --> 00:02:12.200 American government is kind of getting its act together showing 44 00:02:12.200 --> 00:02:16.534 that it -- it is taking this crisis seriously and is not 45 00:02:16.534 --> 00:02:20.534 being deflected by concerns about the economic impact to 46 00:02:20.534 --> 00:02:24.534 the global and American economies. 47 00:02:24.534 --> 00:02:28.534 It's trying to signal this is a very serious crisis. 48 00:02:28.534 --> 00:02:32.534 Where are we, Stephen? 49 00:02:32.534 --> 00:02:36.534 I fear -- actually, I think that we are 50 00:02:36.534 --> 00:02:40.634 three steps from war with Russia, two steps from a Cuban 51 00:02:40.634 --> 00:02:45.534 missile crisis. 52 00:02:45.534 --> 00:02:49.534 Those two steps and both are being discussed in Washington 53 00:02:49.534 --> 00:02:53.567 and Moscow would involve, as many advocate, moving NATO 54 00:02:53.567 --> 00:02:57.567 troops to the Polish-West Ukrainian border. 55 00:02:57.567 --> 00:03:00.567 I don't know how serious those discussions are, all NATO 56 00:03:00.567 --> 00:03:03.567 aircraft are already there and NATO is moving troops around. 57 00:03:03.567 --> 00:03:06.567 If that happens, Putin almost certainly -- almost certainly 58 00:03:06.567 --> 00:03:09.567 would move those 150,000 soldiers he was practicing a 59 00:03:09.567 --> 00:03:13.534 week ago and sent back to the barracks inside Russia into 60 00:03:13.534 --> 00:03:16.534 south and eastern Ukraine. 61 00:03:16.534 --> 00:03:19.968 That would be the Cuban missile crisis and war would be one 62 00:03:19.968 --> 00:03:21.534 step away. 63 00:03:21.534 --> 00:03:23.534 That's my snapshot. 64 00:03:23.534 --> 00:03:25.534 There's a post script. 65 00:03:25.534 --> 00:03:27.534 There is, I am 100 percent certain, a way back and out of 66 00:03:27.534 --> 00:03:29.534 this through diplomacy. 67 00:03:29.534 --> 00:03:31.534 The Russians have put a proposal forward, so far as I know, the 68 00:03:31.534 --> 00:03:33.534 Americans haven't responded. 69 00:03:33.534 --> 00:03:35.534 And what is that proposal? 70 00:03:35.534 --> 00:03:37.534 I need a piece of paper because it's 71 00:03:37.534 --> 00:03:40.200 complicated if you don't mind. 72 00:03:40.200 --> 00:03:43.467 No I don't mind. 73 00:03:43.467 --> 00:03:45.467 I thought about it coming down and this is what 74 00:03:45.467 --> 00:03:49.200 basically the Russian State Department is saying -- I mean 75 00:03:49.200 --> 00:03:52.734 the Russian foreign ministry is saying. 76 00:03:52.734 --> 00:03:55.701 Russia wants -- Putin wants. 77 00:03:55.701 --> 00:03:58.801 And in the NATO expansion to Ukraine and Georgia, he wants a 78 00:03:58.801 --> 00:04:02.567 moderate government in Kiev, kind of non-aligned government 79 00:04:02.567 --> 00:04:06.467 without these people he calls neo-fascism in government and a 80 00:04:06.467 --> 00:04:10.067 few are there in that government. 81 00:04:10.067 --> 00:04:12.634 He wants a continued Russian-Ukrainian economic 82 00:04:12.634 --> 00:04:15.367 relationship because that's vital to Russia and Ukraine. 83 00:04:15.367 --> 00:04:17.734 And he wants a federalized Ukrainian constitution because 84 00:04:17.734 --> 00:04:20.501 that would give the pro-Russian people in Ukraine some say. 85 00:04:20.501 --> 00:04:22.534 Now, let me just say briefly what he would give in return. 86 00:04:22.534 --> 00:04:25.634 That was my next question. 87 00:04:25.634 --> 00:04:28.701 Yes, I know it was. 88 00:04:28.701 --> 00:04:32.234 And you're right I mean you're going to ask about that. 89 00:04:32.234 --> 00:04:35.334 As Reagan used to say, it takes two to tango. 90 00:04:35.334 --> 00:04:37.400 But I personally can't tango. 91 00:04:37.400 --> 00:04:39.667 Putin would, in return, recognize the new Kiev 92 00:04:39.667 --> 00:04:41.667 government. 93 00:04:41.667 --> 00:04:43.667 He doesn't recognize this government. 94 00:04:43.667 --> 00:04:46.167 He won't talk to them. 95 00:04:46.167 --> 00:04:48.267 Secondly, he would pledge not to inspire more separationism in 96 00:04:48.267 --> 00:04:50.968 Ukraine because there are regions of Ukraine that wouldn't 97 00:04:50.968 --> 00:04:53.033 mind joining Russia and he, Russia, would help Ukrainian 98 00:04:53.033 --> 00:04:55.968 economy avoid the abyss on which they stand possibly by 99 00:04:55.968 --> 00:04:58.534 continuing to provide discounted natural gas. 100 00:04:58.534 --> 00:05:00.801 And do you consider that proposal by the 101 00:05:00.801 --> 00:05:03.334 Russians reasonable? 102 00:05:03.334 --> 00:05:05.734 I consider it a reasonable starting point. 103 00:05:05.734 --> 00:05:08.467 Now, we have origin but that's an offer. 104 00:05:08.467 --> 00:05:10.634 Now it's our turn to say what we think about that. 105 00:05:10.634 --> 00:05:12.667 It's going to be hard to do. 106 00:05:12.667 --> 00:05:14.901 It's going to hard to do in part, because Secretary Kerry 107 00:05:14.901 --> 00:05:16.901 already said that if the Russians proceeded with 108 00:05:16.901 --> 00:05:19.801 annexation of Crimea which the Duma has now as of today voted 109 00:05:19.801 --> 00:05:22.133 in favor of and Putin said was going to happen, that that was 110 00:05:22.133 --> 00:05:24.133 the end of diplomacy. 111 00:05:24.133 --> 00:05:27.033 So Kerry needs to walk that back. 112 00:05:27.033 --> 00:05:29.033 It's unfortunate that he said it. 113 00:05:29.033 --> 00:05:30.033 Yes. 114 00:05:30.033 --> 00:05:31.033 Speaking points from the United States have been 115 00:05:31.033 --> 00:05:32.501 all over the place. 116 00:05:32.501 --> 00:05:34.033 Kerry said that all options were on the table. 117 00:05:34.033 --> 00:05:36.033 A couple days later Obama says absolutely there will not be any 118 00:05:36.033 --> 00:05:38.033 engagement of military excursions on the ground in 119 00:05:38.033 --> 00:05:40.033 Ukraine. 120 00:05:40.033 --> 00:05:42.100 It's not going to provide support, military support for 121 00:05:42.100 --> 00:05:44.501 the Ukrainians and furthermore the Ukrainians wouldn't even 122 00:05:44.501 --> 00:05:46.501 want that. 123 00:05:46.501 --> 00:05:48.501 That's the problem. 124 00:05:48.501 --> 00:05:51.000 These sanctions are real and as of today they're real. 125 00:05:51.000 --> 00:05:54.300 And they are real in the sense they have economic impact. 126 00:05:54.300 --> 00:05:57.334 We will absolutely now see major capital flight from Russian 127 00:05:57.334 --> 00:06:00.033 oligarchs with holdings in the United States and Europe. 128 00:06:00.033 --> 00:06:02.834 They will move to other places. 129 00:06:02.834 --> 00:06:05.634 But they will not oppose Putin. 130 00:06:05.634 --> 00:06:07.734 Putin's popularity has only increased through this 131 00:06:07.734 --> 00:06:09.734 Ukrainian crisis. 132 00:06:09.734 --> 00:06:12.367 The deal that Steve is talking about being proffered certainly 133 00:06:12.367 --> 00:06:14.868 does not include any movement from Crimea. 134 00:06:14.868 --> 00:06:16.868 We have a real problem here which is that the Americans and 135 00:06:16.868 --> 00:06:19.167 the Europeans have said it's unacceptable for the Russians to 136 00:06:19.167 --> 00:06:21.200 stay in Crimea. 137 00:06:21.200 --> 00:06:23.934 For the Russians the present Ukrainian government is 138 00:06:23.934 --> 00:06:25.934 unacceptable and they are illegitimate. 139 00:06:25.934 --> 00:06:28.400 That is the chasm. 140 00:06:28.400 --> 00:06:31.467 And while I do not believe that we're actually close to war 141 00:06:31.467 --> 00:06:34.100 with the Russians because I think we have no interest in 142 00:06:34.100 --> 00:06:36.467 military escalation vis-a-vis Russia, I do believe that the 143 00:06:36.467 --> 00:06:38.534 likelihood of this becomes destabilizing is significant. 144 00:06:38.534 --> 00:06:40.467 If the Russians do certain kinds of things, 145 00:06:40.467 --> 00:06:43.133 there can be a NATO response. 146 00:06:43.133 --> 00:06:45.801 Sure but I don't see the Russians going beyond 147 00:06:45.801 --> 00:06:47.801 Ukraine. 148 00:06:47.801 --> 00:06:50.167 I do think it is possible. 149 00:06:50.167 --> 00:06:53.133 I think that the Russians find this Ukrainian government 150 00:06:53.133 --> 00:06:55.300 unacceptable, they will -- they will certainly work to overturn 151 00:06:55.300 --> 00:06:57.300 it. 152 00:06:57.300 --> 00:06:59.300 The question is whether they will do so economically and 153 00:06:59.300 --> 00:07:01.300 diplomatically as they go further. 154 00:07:01.300 --> 00:07:02.300 I was going to ask, Steve, is that a reasonable 155 00:07:02.300 --> 00:07:03.300 position to have with respect to that government since the 156 00:07:03.300 --> 00:07:04.467 President was you know overthrown, the Democratically 157 00:07:04.467 --> 00:07:07.267 elected president was overthrown in the manner that he was. 158 00:07:07.267 --> 00:07:10.834 Look, I think that there are -- there are no 159 00:07:10.834 --> 00:07:14.334 good legal arguments for the Americans on the Ukrainian 160 00:07:14.334 --> 00:07:16.334 government overthrow. 161 00:07:16.334 --> 00:07:18.334 There are no good legal arguments for the Russians on 162 00:07:18.334 --> 00:07:20.634 the Crimean referendum. 163 00:07:20.634 --> 00:07:22.634 That's not what we're really talking about here. 164 00:07:22.634 --> 00:07:26.033 What we're really talking about is that Ukraine -- Ukraine is by 165 00:07:26.033 --> 00:07:28.801 far the most important, the single most important national 166 00:07:28.801 --> 00:07:30.801 interest that the Russians have. 167 00:07:30.801 --> 00:07:33.300 A Russia that has been in decline structurally for over 20 168 00:07:33.300 --> 00:07:36.801 years, demographically, geographically, diplomatically, 169 00:07:36.801 --> 00:07:40.400 militarily, economically and they have -- they put a real red 170 00:07:40.400 --> 00:07:42.801 line, not a dotted red line, not a Syria red line -- they put 171 00:07:42.801 --> 00:07:45.868 a real red line on Crimea and Ukraine. 172 00:07:45.868 --> 00:07:48.400 Yes, I think Ian is right. 173 00:07:48.400 --> 00:07:51.934 We're not on the brink of war, but we are at a very dangerous 174 00:07:51.934 --> 00:07:55.767 moment, arguably the most dangerous moment since the end 175 00:07:55.767 --> 00:07:59.067 of the Cold War, because the Russians have begun to 176 00:07:59.067 --> 00:08:04.100 dismantle their biggest neighbor and that is a drastic step that 177 00:08:04.100 --> 00:08:07.200 has alarmed all European governments and makes it 178 00:08:07.200 --> 00:08:11.667 extremely hard to consider real diplomacy with President Putin, 179 00:08:11.667 --> 00:08:14.667 whatever you think of his proposal. 180 00:08:14.667 --> 00:08:17.901 Putin has kind of cast himself as an international outlaw and 181 00:08:17.901 --> 00:08:22.033 that makes it very, very difficult to just sit down at 182 00:08:22.033 --> 00:08:25.767 the table calmly and look at individual proposals. 183 00:08:25.767 --> 00:08:29.033 Broadly speaking about their proposal, the big problem is 184 00:08:29.033 --> 00:08:32.701 understanding whether or not what the Russian aim is, is to 185 00:08:32.701 --> 00:08:35.734 be able to dictate the composition of Ukraine's 186 00:08:35.734 --> 00:08:38.801 government, the structure of Ukraine and its foreign policy. 187 00:08:38.801 --> 00:08:42.534 And a lot of the things -- you know, the devil is always in 188 00:08:42.534 --> 00:08:46.434 the details in diplomacy of this kind -- but a lot of the 189 00:08:46.434 --> 00:08:49.634 specific provisions of Putin's proposal are extremely 190 00:08:49.634 --> 00:08:52.634 far-reaching. 191 00:08:52.634 --> 00:08:56.534 They're not really just a federalization of Ukraine which 192 00:08:56.534 --> 00:08:59.801 sounds sort of innocuous, they come very close to the breakup 193 00:08:59.801 --> 00:09:03.801 of Ukraine. 194 00:09:03.801 --> 00:09:07.834 And that combined with fears about what Putin is really 195 00:09:07.834 --> 00:09:11.367 after, given what he's done this week, is going to make it 196 00:09:11.367 --> 00:09:14.934 extremely difficult to people -- for people to sit around the 197 00:09:14.934 --> 00:09:17.934 table and to talk calmly about this. 198 00:09:17.934 --> 00:09:20.934 Yes it seems to me that's an interesting point 199 00:09:20.934 --> 00:09:23.934 to me. 200 00:09:23.934 --> 00:09:25.934 One having listened to a lots of people here at this table 201 00:09:25.934 --> 00:09:27.934 over the last few weeks on this. 202 00:09:27.934 --> 00:09:31.434 I mean is it possible because as you suggested of his economic 203 00:09:31.434 --> 00:09:34.667 well-being not his but the country's economic well-being 204 00:09:34.667 --> 00:09:38.100 that effective sanctions will influence him and call him -- 205 00:09:38.100 --> 00:09:41.400 cause him to either stop or pull back? 206 00:09:41.400 --> 00:09:43.400 Sadly, I don't think so. 207 00:09:43.400 --> 00:09:45.400 And I think this is a misjudgment on the part of the 208 00:09:45.400 --> 00:09:47.400 United States. 209 00:09:47.400 --> 00:09:49.400 I think that there are no reasonable sanctions that are 210 00:09:49.400 --> 00:09:51.400 feasible for the Americans and the Europeans. 211 00:09:51.400 --> 00:09:53.400 Achievable or feasible. 212 00:09:53.400 --> 00:09:55.934 No achievable, that we can't get there, to put 213 00:09:55.934 --> 00:09:58.601 the kind of pain on the Russians that would make them 214 00:09:58.601 --> 00:09:59.601 move. 215 00:09:59.601 --> 00:10:01.601 To make it -- because the interests are asymmetric, the 216 00:10:01.601 --> 00:10:03.767 level of importance of Ukraine to Putin is too great. 217 00:10:03.767 --> 00:10:07.634 Putin gave a speech this week to the upper house of the 218 00:10:07.634 --> 00:10:11.400 parliament and it was seen as a historic speech all over Russia. 219 00:10:11.400 --> 00:10:15.234 It's a speech that I would say a strong majority of Russians 220 00:10:15.234 --> 00:10:19.000 have been waiting for a leader to give for 20 years now. 221 00:10:19.000 --> 00:10:22.133 The belief that the United States does not have Russia's 222 00:10:22.133 --> 00:10:25.267 interests at heart, is willing to undermine, is willing to 223 00:10:25.267 --> 00:10:28.100 demonstrate and you finally have a leader who's 224 00:10:28.100 --> 00:10:31.167 willing to stand up and say absolutely no more. 225 00:10:31.167 --> 00:10:35.067 His popularity has only shot up since this Ukraine crisis has 226 00:10:35.067 --> 00:10:36.133 started in the last two weeks. 227 00:10:36.133 --> 00:10:38.133 You like Putin or not, you have been saying 228 00:10:38.133 --> 00:10:39.200 that for ten years. 229 00:10:39.200 --> 00:10:40.200 Twenty. 230 00:10:40.200 --> 00:10:41.400 Twenty, right. 231 00:10:41.400 --> 00:10:44.567 I think you can't get out of a bad place 232 00:10:44.567 --> 00:10:47.200 unless you know how you got in. 233 00:10:47.200 --> 00:10:49.634 I have been arguing since the 90s that the constant expansion 234 00:10:49.634 --> 00:10:53.367 of NATO toward Russia's borders which began under Clinton and is 235 00:10:53.367 --> 00:10:56.834 now in the Baltics on Russia's borders was going to eventually 236 00:10:56.834 --> 00:10:59.100 lead to something like this. 237 00:10:59.100 --> 00:11:02.567 Ian pointed out something very important and I think every 238 00:11:02.567 --> 00:11:05.434 American interested ought to read Putin's speech, it's easily 239 00:11:05.434 --> 00:11:07.801 available in English and you can disagree with it but it 240 00:11:07.801 --> 00:11:09.801 tells you where he's coming from. 241 00:11:09.801 --> 00:11:13.300 Putin used the expression "Red Line," and he has two red lines, 242 00:11:13.300 --> 00:11:17.334 one is Georgia and one is Ukraine for geopolitical and 243 00:11:17.334 --> 00:11:19.367 historical reasons. 244 00:11:19.367 --> 00:11:24.033 We crossed the red line in Georgia in 2008 and there was a 245 00:11:24.033 --> 00:11:26.701 small war. 246 00:11:26.701 --> 00:11:29.801 He believes -- now, he may be wrong about this -- but he sees 247 00:11:29.801 --> 00:11:33.434 in this whole thing NATO coming to Ukraine and he believes we've 248 00:11:33.434 --> 00:11:37.067 crossed a red line and what you got is what you got. 249 00:11:37.067 --> 00:11:40.000 Now, Steve's position -- Steve Sestanovich's position, I 250 00:11:40.000 --> 00:11:43.901 understand, but if we were to deconstruct each thing Steve 251 00:11:43.901 --> 00:11:47.934 said, that means that either Putin withdraws from Crimea, 252 00:11:47.934 --> 00:11:50.100 kicks it out of the Russian federation or there are no 253 00:11:50.100 --> 00:11:52.167 negotiations. 254 00:11:52.167 --> 00:11:55.734 And I maintain if there's no negotiations, with all the 255 00:11:55.734 --> 00:11:59.968 tales in Ukraine provocations every day, snipers, we don't 256 00:11:59.968 --> 00:12:03.534 know who they are all the tails wagging the dog, we could get to 257 00:12:03.534 --> 00:12:05.534 war. 258 00:12:05.534 --> 00:12:08.934 We have to begin negotiations and it doesn't begin with Putin. 259 00:12:08.934 --> 00:12:12.868 After what he did this week, saying, OK, never mind, I send 260 00:12:12.868 --> 00:12:15.601 Crimea back to Ukraine. 261 00:12:15.601 --> 00:12:17.534 Steve? 262 00:12:17.534 --> 00:12:20.868 I agree that getting Crimea's status 263 00:12:20.868 --> 00:12:24.267 changed is not the primary focus of policy right now and 264 00:12:24.267 --> 00:12:29.868 sanctions are not going to do it for exactly the reason that Ian 265 00:12:29.868 --> 00:12:31.868 mentioned. 266 00:12:31.868 --> 00:12:35.834 The sanctions are really meant to symbolize Western alarm. 267 00:12:35.834 --> 00:12:40.267 But Steve is right, also, that we need to know how we got into 268 00:12:40.267 --> 00:12:42.634 this crisis. 269 00:12:42.634 --> 00:12:46.300 How we got into it is that Putin had a strategy for 270 00:12:46.300 --> 00:12:49.701 bringing Ukraine into his orbit and it blew up in his face 271 00:12:49.701 --> 00:12:54.434 because it couldn't be sustained in Ukraine itself. 272 00:12:54.434 --> 00:12:59.167 He sought an economic subordination of Ukraine to 273 00:12:59.167 --> 00:13:03.868 Russia and the only way in which he thought you could 274 00:13:03.868 --> 00:13:07.667 control the popular response there was by a bloody crackdown 275 00:13:07.667 --> 00:13:11.400 which brought down his agent, President Yanukovych. 276 00:13:11.400 --> 00:13:16.267 Yanukovych was ousted by unanimous vote of the entire 277 00:13:16.267 --> 00:13:20.567 Ukrainian parliament including every single member at his 278 00:13:20.567 --> 00:13:22.567 party. 279 00:13:22.567 --> 00:13:24.400 It's a pretty legitimate government, actually. 280 00:13:24.400 --> 00:13:28.701 And I think the problem we have now is not so much how to 281 00:13:28.701 --> 00:13:33.267 reverse Crimea's status, just as in most of the Cold War -- it 282 00:13:33.267 --> 00:13:36.300 wasn't about changing Bulgaria's status. 283 00:13:36.300 --> 00:13:40.667 The real issue is how to make Ukraine succeed rather than have 284 00:13:40.667 --> 00:13:42.067 it dismembered by Russia. 285 00:13:42.067 --> 00:13:45.601 And that's going to take a very ambitious and creative policy on 286 00:13:45.601 --> 00:13:47.467 the part of the West. 287 00:13:47.467 --> 00:13:49.901 I mean the idea I assume that you're talking 288 00:13:49.901 --> 00:13:52.300 about is that Ukraine would have its relationship with 289 00:13:52.300 --> 00:13:55.534 Russia but also would be allowed to have a relationship with the 290 00:13:55.534 --> 00:13:56.534 E.U. 291 00:13:56.534 --> 00:13:58.534 Absolutely. 292 00:13:58.534 --> 00:14:00.534 You know, if it could achieve that two things, 293 00:14:00.534 --> 00:14:01.534 it would benefit everybody. 294 00:14:01.534 --> 00:14:02.534 Sure. 295 00:14:02.534 --> 00:14:06.868 And the new government in Kiev is talking exactly that line. 296 00:14:06.868 --> 00:14:11.067 This week, Prime Minister Yatsenyuk said a number of very 297 00:14:11.067 --> 00:14:15.234 important things about the future course he sees. 298 00:14:15.234 --> 00:14:19.801 He said, NATO membership, not at all on the agenda, because 299 00:14:19.801 --> 00:14:23.000 that's a very divisive issue in Ukraine. 300 00:14:23.000 --> 00:14:26.234 He also said the E.U. 301 00:14:26.234 --> 00:14:30.300 is opening its market to us and without any invidious measures 302 00:14:30.300 --> 00:14:33.767 that might be harmful to eastern Ukraine, to the Russian 303 00:14:33.767 --> 00:14:38.267 economy, they are -- the new government is trying to find a 304 00:14:38.267 --> 00:14:41.567 way to unify the country, to put it -- put the economy back 305 00:14:41.567 --> 00:14:45.634 on its feet to unite the society at a time when the 306 00:14:45.634 --> 00:14:50.434 Russians are doing everything to create social tension. 307 00:14:50.434 --> 00:14:54.634 And I think there's just no way to describe Russian policy as 308 00:14:54.634 --> 00:14:58.868 other than terribly threatening to the post-Cold War order. 309 00:14:58.868 --> 00:15:03.334 And I think the Ukrainian government is, by contrast, 310 00:15:03.334 --> 00:15:07.567 acting much more calmly, responsively to try to keep the 311 00:15:07.567 --> 00:15:10.567 peace. 312 00:15:10.567 --> 00:15:13.667 I'll go to you point, but just one quick thing 313 00:15:13.667 --> 00:15:15.801 here. 314 00:15:15.801 --> 00:15:21.033 Do you believe Steve that Putin believes that the demonstrations 315 00:15:21.033 --> 00:15:24.734 leading to the overthrow of Yanukovych who was aided and 316 00:15:24.734 --> 00:15:26.434 abetted by the United States? 317 00:15:26.434 --> 00:15:28.434 I don't know but here's what he does believe. 318 00:15:28.434 --> 00:15:33.067 That on February 21, the European Union Foreign Ministers 319 00:15:33.067 --> 00:15:36.501 signed an agreement with Yanukovych that would have kept 320 00:15:36.501 --> 00:15:40.200 him in office until elections in December, gotten the protesters 321 00:15:40.200 --> 00:15:43.367 off the street and brought the process of some kind of 322 00:15:43.367 --> 00:15:44.734 reconciliation. 323 00:15:44.734 --> 00:15:49.067 That document, which Russia didn't sign but signed off of 324 00:15:49.067 --> 00:15:52.067 -- I mean it agreed with it -- was dead in the water twelve 325 00:15:52.067 --> 00:15:53.067 hours later. 326 00:15:53.067 --> 00:15:56.133 And he feels the fact that the United States and the European 327 00:15:56.133 --> 00:16:01.133 Union did nothing to enforce that document which led to the-- 328 00:16:01.133 --> 00:16:03.133 Yes. And -- 329 00:16:03.133 --> 00:16:05.133 -- indicates our complicity at some level. 330 00:16:05.133 --> 00:16:07.133 Yes and also is indicative some say a failure of 331 00:16:07.133 --> 00:16:09.400 American foreign policy not to see that opportunity. 332 00:16:09.400 --> 00:16:12.000 I mean here's the problem though, I mean the 333 00:16:12.000 --> 00:16:14.801 distance between -- I don't want to implicate Ian, he speaks 334 00:16:14.801 --> 00:16:17.267 eloquently for himself, so I'll just say the distance between 335 00:16:17.267 --> 00:16:18.501 your two Steves. 336 00:16:18.501 --> 00:16:19.501 Yes. 337 00:16:19.501 --> 00:16:21.501 Is the difference between, I think, war 338 00:16:21.501 --> 00:16:23.033 and peace. 339 00:16:23.033 --> 00:16:26.400 In Steve Sestanovich's mind, it's Russia and Putin who are 340 00:16:26.400 --> 00:16:28.868 responsible for this terrible mess from the get to the go. 341 00:16:28.868 --> 00:16:32.734 And I ask you a question all of us at the table. 342 00:16:32.734 --> 00:16:35.033 I mean I was raised in Kentucky and they taught us at school 343 00:16:35.033 --> 00:16:39.267 there are two sides to every story -- is there anything true 344 00:16:39.267 --> 00:16:42.334 and legitimate that the Russians have said or done in this 345 00:16:42.334 --> 00:16:44.901 crisis including what Putin said in that speech? 346 00:16:44.901 --> 00:16:48.234 If so, if there is only that much that's true, that's where 347 00:16:48.234 --> 00:16:50.501 you begin to negotiate. 348 00:16:50.501 --> 00:16:55.234 But Steve Sestanovich doesn't have a word of legitimacy for 349 00:16:55.234 --> 00:16:57.234 anything that comes from Russia. 350 00:16:57.234 --> 00:16:59.801 One last word, Henry Kissinger wrote, in the "Washington Post" 351 00:16:59.801 --> 00:17:00.801 March 3rd I think. 352 00:17:00.801 --> 00:17:02.801 He was on the show for 45 minutes. 353 00:17:02.801 --> 00:17:04.801 Well I hope he said it. 354 00:17:04.801 --> 00:17:07.000 It's one of the great things he ever said, "Demonization of 355 00:17:07.000 --> 00:17:11.367 Putin is not a policy, it's an alibi for not having a policy." 356 00:17:11.367 --> 00:17:13.534 He said it on the program. 357 00:17:13.534 --> 00:17:15.534 Good. 358 00:17:15.534 --> 00:17:17.534 Steve, you want to respond to that and then I'll 359 00:17:17.534 --> 00:17:21.400 come back to how -- how you see Putin and how Steve Cohen thinks 360 00:17:21.400 --> 00:17:23.567 you see Putin. 361 00:17:23.567 --> 00:17:26.400 Well, I don't think I should be the 362 00:17:26.400 --> 00:17:28.567 subject of this discussion. 363 00:17:28.567 --> 00:17:32.133 Yes I know but I didn't make it. 364 00:17:32.133 --> 00:17:34.634 I'm happier to make -- I'm happier 365 00:17:34.634 --> 00:17:37.467 to make Putin the subject of the conversation. 366 00:17:37.467 --> 00:17:41.000 I think Putin had every opportunity to respond to the 367 00:17:41.000 --> 00:17:45.133 change of government in Ukraine in a way that kept passions 368 00:17:45.133 --> 00:17:50.067 calm that created an opportunity for multiple interests to be 369 00:17:50.067 --> 00:17:52.968 served and to avoid a crisis. 370 00:17:52.968 --> 00:17:57.367 And without demonizing him, I think you can say that every 371 00:17:57.367 --> 00:18:01.868 step of the way since then, his actions have escalated the 372 00:18:01.868 --> 00:18:06.267 crisis, have created anxieties both within Russia and within 373 00:18:06.267 --> 00:18:09.501 Ukraine and within -- among Ukraine's neighbors and 374 00:18:09.501 --> 00:18:11.501 throughout Europe. 375 00:18:11.501 --> 00:18:16.267 The fact that he has gained some popularity at home, to my mind, 376 00:18:16.267 --> 00:18:19.934 is not a real justification for deeply irresponsible policy. 377 00:18:19.934 --> 00:18:23.934 If Steve Cohen wants to say that whipping up the Russian 378 00:18:23.934 --> 00:18:28.801 republic makes what he says true, fine, but, really, read 379 00:18:28.801 --> 00:18:31.400 the speech carefully. 380 00:18:31.400 --> 00:18:35.033 The speech is a kind of justification for a very 381 00:18:35.033 --> 00:18:39.734 far-reaching overthrow of stable arrangements that the countries 382 00:18:39.734 --> 00:18:43.868 that emerged out of the former Soviet Union have enjoyed 383 00:18:43.868 --> 00:18:47.167 amongst themselves and made it possible to keep the peace. 384 00:18:47.167 --> 00:18:49.667 Now the peace is threatened. 385 00:18:49.667 --> 00:18:52.534 But I think that is primarily the doing of one man. 386 00:18:52.534 --> 00:18:54.534 Go ahead. 387 00:18:54.534 --> 00:18:57.501 But -- but the fact is that Putin has been 388 00:18:57.501 --> 00:18:59.634 demonized through this process. 389 00:18:59.634 --> 00:19:02.133 As Stephen Cohen said, there have been things that Putin 390 00:19:02.133 --> 00:19:04.133 said. 391 00:19:04.133 --> 00:19:06.234 Putin has blood on his hands here, he was more than happy to 392 00:19:06.234 --> 00:19:08.767 support Yanukovych as he was cracking down in ways that 393 00:19:08.767 --> 00:19:12.100 clearly lost his legitimacy on the ground in Ukraine. 394 00:19:12.100 --> 00:19:14.300 But there was a deal that was cut with the -- with the 395 00:19:14.300 --> 00:19:16.467 European foreign ministers. 396 00:19:16.467 --> 00:19:19.033 That deal was abrogated and the Americans were very happy to 397 00:19:19.033 --> 00:19:21.868 jump on that immediately in ways that would have completely 398 00:19:21.868 --> 00:19:23.868 unacceptable to anyone in the U.S. 399 00:19:23.868 --> 00:19:25.968 administration if we had been on the other side. 400 00:19:25.968 --> 00:19:30.467 Lord knows our administrations over history have been prepared 401 00:19:30.467 --> 00:19:32.467 to accept lots of anti-Democratic things if they 402 00:19:32.467 --> 00:19:35.434 happen to benefit us or they are in our backyard are 403 00:19:35.434 --> 00:19:37.467 considered as strategic interests. 404 00:19:37.467 --> 00:19:39.467 Leaving all of that aside, what is going to happen now because 405 00:19:39.467 --> 00:19:41.467 Steve Sestanovich is right, the Russians have escalated every 406 00:19:41.467 --> 00:19:42.467 moment. 407 00:19:42.467 --> 00:19:44.467 Having said that, the Obama administration has escalated 408 00:19:44.467 --> 00:19:45.467 every moment, too. 409 00:19:45.467 --> 00:19:47.467 The fact that we -- we don't know how far they're willing to 410 00:19:47.467 --> 00:19:49.467 go doesn't mean that thus far both sides haven't given as good 411 00:19:49.467 --> 00:19:50.467 as they've gotten. 412 00:19:50.467 --> 00:19:52.467 Diplomacy right now is broken, the Obama administration put new 413 00:19:52.467 --> 00:19:54.467 -- slapped new sanctions on today and within an hour 414 00:19:54.467 --> 00:19:57.200 basically the Russians had sanctions back that were nip and 415 00:19:57.200 --> 00:19:58.200 tuck right with them. 416 00:19:58.200 --> 00:20:01.067 Furthermore the Russian foreign ministry came out yesterday and 417 00:20:01.067 --> 00:20:03.934 said they were considering and actually changing their 418 00:20:03.934 --> 00:20:07.067 engagement in the negotiations process on Iran. 419 00:20:07.067 --> 00:20:09.334 They are taking this very seriously. 420 00:20:09.334 --> 00:20:10.501 And if the U.S. 421 00:20:10.501 --> 00:20:13.334 is going to continue to ratchet up as the Russians look at 422 00:20:13.334 --> 00:20:16.067 something which they considered to be in their backyard an 423 00:20:16.067 --> 00:20:18.834 illegitimate government that they must redress and the 424 00:20:18.834 --> 00:20:20.834 escalations is going to continue. 425 00:20:20.834 --> 00:20:22.834 And we're going to have not only we're going to have economic 426 00:20:22.834 --> 00:20:25.934 pain that's going to go much farther beyond the couple of 427 00:20:25.934 --> 00:20:29.100 individual billionaires and the folks who banked them in their 428 00:20:29.100 --> 00:20:33.133 real estate this is going to have real economic impact but 429 00:20:33.133 --> 00:20:35.501 we also will have a Russia that will be geopolitically 430 00:20:35.501 --> 00:20:39.868 dangerous and destructive everywhere they happen to have 431 00:20:39.868 --> 00:20:40.868 influence. 432 00:20:40.868 --> 00:20:43.501 That's not a new Cold War because China is not involved. 433 00:20:43.501 --> 00:20:46.467 It includes Iran and Syria. 434 00:20:46.467 --> 00:20:48.467 Absolutely it does. 435 00:20:48.467 --> 00:20:50.200 China is not going to support them. 436 00:20:50.200 --> 00:20:52.467 The most important thing that gives us reason for optimism 437 00:20:52.467 --> 00:20:54.467 that this will not become a globally destructive event is 438 00:20:54.467 --> 00:20:56.467 because the Chinese decided that they don't want any part of 439 00:20:56.467 --> 00:20:58.467 this at all. 440 00:20:58.467 --> 00:21:00.467 They've abstained. 441 00:21:00.467 --> 00:21:02.634 They've said virtually nothing that you can be anything into. 442 00:21:02.634 --> 00:21:04.634 They don't want to be attached to the Russians. 443 00:21:04.634 --> 00:21:06.634 They don't want to be attached to the Americans. 444 00:21:06.634 --> 00:21:08.634 Just leave them alone and let them do what they want in Asia 445 00:21:08.634 --> 00:21:10.634 and other places. 446 00:21:10.634 --> 00:21:13.000 But -- but in terms of anywhere that Russia has influence -- 447 00:21:13.000 --> 00:21:17.033 Iran, Syria around their borders and some of the 448 00:21:17.033 --> 00:21:19.133 countries that could very well be destabilized a little 449 00:21:19.133 --> 00:21:22.067 farther than that like Poland and the Balks and I think about 450 00:21:22.067 --> 00:21:24.534 northeast Estonia and all the Russians there, clearly we're 451 00:21:24.534 --> 00:21:26.567 going to have some instability. 452 00:21:26.567 --> 00:21:28.567 Do you think Steve Cohen is way too alarmist 453 00:21:28.567 --> 00:21:30.567 if in fact he suggests this could lead to war? 454 00:21:30.567 --> 00:21:34.033 Yes I do but I'm not -- I think that if you talk 455 00:21:34.033 --> 00:21:35.968 about trade war, absolutely. 456 00:21:35.968 --> 00:21:37.968 If you talk about capital flows -- 457 00:21:37.968 --> 00:21:41.100 Russia is so weak, isn't it more likely to 458 00:21:41.100 --> 00:21:45.501 have a significant detrimental impact on their economy and 459 00:21:45.501 --> 00:21:48.167 pressure on them than it is here? 460 00:21:48.167 --> 00:21:51.267 Russia is weak, sure, but Russia is not ready to 461 00:21:51.267 --> 00:21:52.267 collapse. 462 00:21:52.267 --> 00:21:53.267 This is not Egypt. 463 00:21:53.267 --> 00:21:54.334 This is not Ukraine. 464 00:21:54.334 --> 00:21:55.534 They're not begging for cash. 465 00:21:55.534 --> 00:21:58.968 This was a guy that was prepared to take $15 billion and write a 466 00:21:58.968 --> 00:22:00.400 check to the Ukrainians. 467 00:22:00.400 --> 00:22:03.200 Now believe me, the Russian people, they're not doing 468 00:22:03.200 --> 00:22:06.200 incredibly well economically but there's still growth. 469 00:22:06.200 --> 00:22:09.000 The fact that they're a shadow of what they were 20 years ago 470 00:22:09.000 --> 00:22:11.267 does not mean that we can push this guy into oblivion. 471 00:22:11.267 --> 00:22:14.033 Putin is -- Putin is not going down. 472 00:22:14.033 --> 00:22:17.167 This is the same guy that was prepared to allow "Pussy Riot" 473 00:22:17.167 --> 00:22:20.701 and Khodorkovsky to be free from prison because they weren't 474 00:22:20.701 --> 00:22:22.601 a threat to him domestically. 475 00:22:22.601 --> 00:22:25.667 We should not underestimate the capabilities of someone that 476 00:22:25.667 --> 00:22:28.734 believes that we're trying to strip away his singular, most 477 00:22:28.734 --> 00:22:32.000 important asset, we should not underestimate him. 478 00:22:32.000 --> 00:22:35.000 Steve Cohen said that I most agree with, is that Americans 479 00:22:35.000 --> 00:22:38.734 need to read a speech from a world leader who actually 480 00:22:38.734 --> 00:22:41.033 fundamentally disagrees with us and doesn't sugar coat it. 481 00:22:41.033 --> 00:22:43.801 Finally Americans -- we have too many people out there that 482 00:22:43.801 --> 00:22:45.801 disagree with us and do sugar coating. 483 00:22:45.801 --> 00:22:48.033 Steve i converting when you say to read 484 00:22:48.033 --> 00:22:51.834 speeches, I mean, I think people put in speeches what they 485 00:22:51.834 --> 00:22:54.400 intend to say. 486 00:22:54.400 --> 00:22:56.367 So the war thing we can't settle here. 487 00:22:56.367 --> 00:23:00.501 We can -- I mean -- so where are we going to go? 488 00:23:00.501 --> 00:23:02.534 Well, let's try to move it ahead a little if 489 00:23:02.534 --> 00:23:03.534 plausible. 490 00:23:03.534 --> 00:23:04.534 OK. 491 00:23:04.534 --> 00:23:06.534 We have several problems. 492 00:23:06.534 --> 00:23:09.200 I agree completely with Ian that American diplomacy hasn't 493 00:23:09.200 --> 00:23:12.667 performed well and a lot of statements have been said that 494 00:23:12.667 --> 00:23:14.501 are regrettable. 495 00:23:14.501 --> 00:23:16.501 Now we have an additional problem. 496 00:23:16.501 --> 00:23:18.467 That was true in Syria, too, wasn't it? 497 00:23:18.467 --> 00:23:19.467 Yes. 498 00:23:19.467 --> 00:23:20.501 You have another problem. 499 00:23:20.501 --> 00:23:24.334 Putin personally doesn't trust President Obama. 500 00:23:24.334 --> 00:23:27.467 He thinks he's a resolute, has a short attention span and goes 501 00:23:27.467 --> 00:23:29.467 back on agreements that he makes. 502 00:23:29.467 --> 00:23:31.467 How do you know that? 503 00:23:31.467 --> 00:23:33.501 Because it's just well known in the Russian 504 00:23:33.501 --> 00:23:35.834 establishment that he feels that Obama hasn't come forward. 505 00:23:35.834 --> 00:23:37.834 But the point -- the more important point is -- 506 00:23:37.834 --> 00:23:39.834 What were they doing talking on the phone all 507 00:23:39.834 --> 00:23:40.834 the time? 508 00:23:40.834 --> 00:23:41.834 God knows. 509 00:23:41.834 --> 00:23:43.934 I mean well, God knows, but they're just -- two 510 00:23:43.934 --> 00:23:45.100 hours here, an hour there. 511 00:23:45.100 --> 00:23:48.100 Maybe they're earning their salaries. 512 00:23:48.100 --> 00:23:50.100 But here's the important point, here's the 513 00:23:50.100 --> 00:23:53.167 important point and I want to shift the focus, Putin does 514 00:23:53.167 --> 00:23:56.834 trust the Chancellor of Germany, Merkel, for various reasons. 515 00:23:56.834 --> 00:24:00.701 She speaks Russian, he speaks German -- that always helps. 516 00:24:00.701 --> 00:24:02.767 She's in a very complicated position, she has a very 517 00:24:02.767 --> 00:24:06.234 difficult position, but I will say this in any negotiation that 518 00:24:06.234 --> 00:24:09.534 moves forward that Russia accepts will have to be cosigned 519 00:24:09.534 --> 00:24:11.367 by Merkel. 520 00:24:11.367 --> 00:24:13.667 In other words, he isn't going to take -- Putin is not going to 521 00:24:13.667 --> 00:24:16.534 take Kerry's word or Obama's word for this. 522 00:24:16.534 --> 00:24:20.934 He's going to say to them, have Merkel call me and tell me 523 00:24:20.934 --> 00:24:25.434 she's down with it, because she talks -- 524 00:24:25.434 --> 00:24:27.434 Just as he's talking to Putin, he's reaching 525 00:24:27.434 --> 00:24:28.434 out to her all the time. 526 00:24:28.434 --> 00:24:30.601 Do you know -- do you really want to know why 527 00:24:30.601 --> 00:24:31.834 he doesn't trust Obama? 528 00:24:31.834 --> 00:24:32.834 Yes. 529 00:24:32.834 --> 00:24:34.868 OK so the Obama -- just to give you -- 530 00:24:34.868 --> 00:24:36.868 He's going to give us the really reason. 531 00:24:36.868 --> 00:24:38.868 I generally ask questions because I want to know the 532 00:24:38.868 --> 00:24:39.868 answer. 533 00:24:39.868 --> 00:24:40.868 Go ahead. 534 00:24:40.868 --> 00:24:43.033 Well you know Charlie I have a friend who says 535 00:24:43.033 --> 00:24:45.033 a good question is better than a bad answer. 536 00:24:45.033 --> 00:24:47.000 I agree with that. 537 00:24:47.000 --> 00:24:49.000 And therefore you play the most essential 538 00:24:49.000 --> 00:24:50.000 role. 539 00:24:50.000 --> 00:24:51.000 I certainly say that. 540 00:24:51.000 --> 00:24:53.000 All right there are several examples but let's go to the 541 00:24:53.000 --> 00:24:54.000 one we all remember, Libya. 542 00:24:54.000 --> 00:24:55.000 Libya. 543 00:24:55.000 --> 00:24:57.000 The United States said to Russia, support 544 00:24:57.000 --> 00:24:58.000 of the United Nations, a no-fly zone over Libya so that Gadhafi 545 00:24:58.000 --> 00:25:01.801 can't take his planes up and attack the insurgents. 546 00:25:01.801 --> 00:25:04.200 Russia said, no it's just a no-fly zone. 547 00:25:04.200 --> 00:25:06.200 You're not going to bomb Gadhafi? 548 00:25:06.200 --> 00:25:09.100 No and we did and it led to his assassination. 549 00:25:09.100 --> 00:25:13.534 From that moment on, Putin never trusted anything that came out 550 00:25:13.534 --> 00:25:15.534 of the White House. 551 00:25:15.534 --> 00:25:17.534 He wasn't president and he was calling the shots. 552 00:25:17.534 --> 00:25:20.267 And that - - what he said in the speech, you remember this, we 553 00:25:20.267 --> 00:25:22.267 have been deceived and betrayed. 554 00:25:22.267 --> 00:25:23.567 He used those words right? 555 00:25:23.567 --> 00:25:24.567 Yes, yes. 556 00:25:24.567 --> 00:25:25.567 Do I lie? 557 00:25:25.567 --> 00:25:26.567 Yes. 558 00:25:26.567 --> 00:25:28.567 And the same in Russian and the same in English 559 00:25:28.567 --> 00:25:29.567 right. 560 00:25:29.567 --> 00:25:31.567 When a national leader says, we Russia have been deceived and 561 00:25:31.567 --> 00:25:33.567 betrayed by the United States several times, the least we can 562 00:25:33.567 --> 00:25:35.567 do is say what is he talking about? 563 00:25:35.567 --> 00:25:37.667 We don't deceive and betray people. 564 00:25:37.667 --> 00:25:39.667 There's some misunderstanding here. 565 00:25:39.667 --> 00:25:40.667 Let's sort it out. 566 00:25:40.667 --> 00:25:41.667 He's thinking of Libya. 567 00:25:41.667 --> 00:25:44.000 He's thinking of the promise that we wouldn't expand NATO. 568 00:25:44.000 --> 00:25:48.367 He's thinking of what he did for George Bush after 9/11, when 569 00:25:48.367 --> 00:25:51.501 Putin did more for the American war effort in Afghanistan than 570 00:25:51.501 --> 00:25:53.801 any NATO country and what did he get in return? 571 00:25:53.801 --> 00:25:56.300 What did he get in return. 572 00:25:56.300 --> 00:25:59.434 The United States left the International Ballistic Missile 573 00:25:59.434 --> 00:26:02.667 Treaty which was the bedrock of Russian national security and 574 00:26:02.667 --> 00:26:04.667 Bush then expanded NATO. 575 00:26:04.667 --> 00:26:05.801 And you know what they told -- 576 00:26:05.801 --> 00:26:07.801 But didn't -- didn't Putin, I mean didn't 577 00:26:07.801 --> 00:26:10.200 Obama come back and begin to negotiate that? 578 00:26:10.200 --> 00:26:12.200 That so-called reset which people of our 579 00:26:12.200 --> 00:26:15.000 generation used to call d‚tente -- do you know what they said to 580 00:26:15.000 --> 00:26:16.968 Putin in Russia? 581 00:26:16.968 --> 00:26:18.767 I heard it with my own ears. 582 00:26:18.767 --> 00:26:23.400 They said to him, you are appeasing America. 583 00:26:23.400 --> 00:26:24.400 You're an appeaser. 584 00:26:24.400 --> 00:26:26.200 It's got to stop. 585 00:26:26.200 --> 00:26:28.934 So there is a politics in Russia. 586 00:26:28.934 --> 00:26:30.934 Let me close on this. 587 00:26:30.934 --> 00:26:34.934 I mean tell me how you see who has influence on Putin and 588 00:26:34.934 --> 00:26:37.601 where is there leverage with him. 589 00:26:37.601 --> 00:26:38.868 There are two groups around him. 590 00:26:38.868 --> 00:26:40.901 One doesn't -- wants to keep a good relationship with the West 591 00:26:40.901 --> 00:26:43.734 and they lost on Crimea. 592 00:26:43.734 --> 00:26:45.734 They had a debate and they lost. 593 00:26:45.734 --> 00:26:46.734 OK. 594 00:26:46.734 --> 00:26:48.734 He went to the other side. 595 00:26:48.734 --> 00:26:50.734 Now listening with rationality to conceding 596 00:26:50.734 --> 00:26:51.734 factions within Russia? 597 00:26:51.734 --> 00:26:53.734 I'm not sure which one of us is rational 598 00:26:53.734 --> 00:26:54.734 anymore. 599 00:26:54.734 --> 00:26:56.767 Who would have thought it would come to this? 600 00:26:56.767 --> 00:27:00.100 But the point of it is that the Crimean question have left the 601 00:27:00.100 --> 00:27:01.100 station. 602 00:27:01.100 --> 00:27:03.167 It's in the Russian Federation and it's going to stay there in 603 00:27:03.167 --> 00:27:04.167 our lifetime. 604 00:27:04.167 --> 00:27:05.167 Let's move on. 605 00:27:05.167 --> 00:27:06.167 Yes. 606 00:27:06.167 --> 00:27:08.868 Now moving on mean I hope that somewhere but 607 00:27:08.868 --> 00:27:12.300 we don't know about serious people from Washington, Moscow 608 00:27:12.300 --> 00:27:15.501 and maybe Berlin are sitting at a table like this having a 609 00:27:15.501 --> 00:27:18.801 conversation that is quite different from what Obama and 610 00:27:18.801 --> 00:27:21.701 Kerry and Lavrov or Putin are saying at this moment. 611 00:27:21.701 --> 00:27:23.701 I'll just shift it to the President, what should 612 00:27:23.701 --> 00:27:27.100 the President of the United States do that he is not doing? 613 00:27:27.100 --> 00:27:30.200 Well, I think right now the President 614 00:27:30.200 --> 00:27:34.033 cannot get Chancellor Merkel to solve the problem for him, as 615 00:27:34.033 --> 00:27:37.834 much as we might like him to be able to and as much as Steve 616 00:27:37.834 --> 00:27:41.501 would like that thought. 617 00:27:41.501 --> 00:27:45.901 Right now, Chancellor Merkel is just as outraged by what Putin 618 00:27:45.901 --> 00:27:48.334 has done as any other Western leader. 619 00:27:48.334 --> 00:27:52.901 And my guess is around the G7 table next week you're going to 620 00:27:52.901 --> 00:27:55.734 have a pretty unanimous view. 621 00:27:55.734 --> 00:27:59.801 The immediate problem that the West faces is how to shore up 622 00:27:59.801 --> 00:28:01.801 Ukraine -- 623 00:28:01.801 --> 00:28:03.801 Right. 624 00:28:03.801 --> 00:28:05.834 -- and that means a strategy that's 625 00:28:05.834 --> 00:28:07.834 much like what the containment strategy in the Cold War was, 626 00:28:07.834 --> 00:28:10.434 which is checking Russian power without war, without war. 627 00:28:10.434 --> 00:28:13.701 That means building up an effective Ukrainian economy, 628 00:28:13.701 --> 00:28:16.701 society and governmental system. 629 00:28:16.701 --> 00:28:19.701 Putin has a lot of incentives to have a pause now. 630 00:28:19.701 --> 00:28:22.701 That pause may be a strategic opportunity for the West to try 631 00:28:22.701 --> 00:28:25.701 to put Ukraine back on its feet. 632 00:28:25.701 --> 00:28:30.167 I think that is probably the window of opportunity that we 633 00:28:30.167 --> 00:28:33.501 should exploit most. 634 00:28:33.501 --> 00:28:38.133 I agree with Steve and Ian that diplomacy is not likely right 635 00:28:38.133 --> 00:28:42.567 now to offer much of a way out because the atmosphere of 636 00:28:42.567 --> 00:28:45.400 distrust is so great. 637 00:28:45.400 --> 00:28:47.033 Thank you very much Stephen Sestanovich. 638 00:28:47.033 --> 00:28:50.033 Thank you Stephen Cohen, thank you Ian Bremmer.