WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:00.934 Ian Bremmer is here. 2 00:00:00.934 --> 00:00:03.667 He is the president of the political risk consulting firm 3 00:00:03.667 --> 00:00:04.701 Eurasia Group. 4 00:00:04.701 --> 00:00:07.133 Every year, the firm publishes a list of top 5 00:00:07.133 --> 00:00:09.067 global political risks. 6 00:00:09.067 --> 00:00:12.834 It released this year's report this morning, it is called 7 00:00:12.834 --> 00:00:17.501 Top Risks 2017: The Geopolitical Recession. 8 00:00:17.501 --> 00:00:19.701 I am pleased to have Ian Bremmer back at this table. 9 00:00:19.701 --> 00:00:20.267 Welcome. 10 00:00:20.267 --> 00:00:21.334 Happy New Year, Charlie. 11 00:00:21.334 --> 00:00:23.367 Happy New Year, good to see you. 12 00:00:23.367 --> 00:00:24.934 I don't know if it's going to be a happy New Year or not. 13 00:00:24.934 --> 00:00:25.501 What do you think? 14 00:00:25.501 --> 00:00:27.934 I mean, you talk about a global recession as we begin 15 00:00:27.934 --> 00:00:29.200 talking about risks. 16 00:00:29.200 --> 00:00:29.968 We're here. 17 00:00:29.968 --> 00:00:32.767 So, it's already half the battle. 18 00:00:32.767 --> 00:00:35.934 You and I have been doing this for a bunch of years, now. 19 00:00:35.934 --> 00:00:37.834 And I had the firm 20 years ago. 20 00:00:37.834 --> 00:00:41.734 We've never seen a geopolitical environment this unstable 21 00:00:41.734 --> 00:00:45.434 as the one we're now entering into in 2017. 22 00:00:45.434 --> 00:00:48.234 You have economic recessions every seven or eight years 23 00:00:48.234 --> 00:00:49.534 on average since World War II. 24 00:00:49.534 --> 00:00:51.634 Geopolitical recessions don't happen as often, 25 00:00:51.634 --> 00:00:55.000 but now the end of this old order. 26 00:00:55.000 --> 00:00:59.767 And the United States saying, look, we don't want, not just to 27 00:00:59.767 --> 00:01:03.968 be the cop for the world, which has been coming for a long time, 28 00:01:03.968 --> 00:01:06.300 but we're not going to be the architect on trade. 29 00:01:06.300 --> 00:01:09.467 We're not going to promote our values globally. 30 00:01:09.467 --> 00:01:11.534 No one else is prepared to do that. 31 00:01:11.534 --> 00:01:16.167 The election of Trump, the United States is now the driver 32 00:01:16.167 --> 00:01:19.067 of geopolitical uncertainty on the world stage, 33 00:01:19.067 --> 00:01:20.167 and that's a new thing. 34 00:01:20.167 --> 00:01:21.734 That's not something we've been dealing with. 35 00:01:21.734 --> 00:01:22.167 OK. 36 00:01:22.167 --> 00:01:24.033 Let's talk about, let's break down geopolitical recession. 37 00:01:24.033 --> 00:01:27.367 It means what, specifically? 38 00:01:27.367 --> 00:01:29.067 I mean, you outlined some suggestions. 39 00:01:29.067 --> 00:01:31.801 The U.S. is not playing the role it has played before, 40 00:01:31.801 --> 00:01:34.400 or at least if you believe the president-elect doesn't plan 41 00:01:34.400 --> 00:01:37.067 to play that role because voters don't seem to 42 00:01:37.067 --> 00:01:38.467 want it to play that role. 43 00:01:38.467 --> 00:01:39.334 I think that's right. 44 00:01:39.334 --> 00:01:41.734 I think it's a combination of both. 45 00:01:41.734 --> 00:01:45.767 I mean, voters have been less happy, less enthused with the 46 00:01:45.767 --> 00:01:49.634 idea of America taking lots of burdens on that its allies want 47 00:01:49.634 --> 00:01:53.000 or multi-lateral institutions want for some time now. 48 00:01:53.000 --> 00:01:54.234 Nation building everywhere but here. 49 00:01:54.234 --> 00:01:55.367 Exactly. 50 00:01:55.367 --> 00:01:59.701 And Trump, I think, played that very well domestically, 51 00:01:59.701 --> 00:02:02.100 when Hillary Clinton, frankly, did not. 52 00:02:02.100 --> 00:02:05.701 I mean, globalist was a dirty word, and at the Republican 53 00:02:05.701 --> 00:02:08.767 National Convention when he got the nomination, 54 00:02:08.767 --> 00:02:10.868 he used that extremely effectively. 55 00:02:10.868 --> 00:02:14.000 It speaks well to the average American. 56 00:02:14.000 --> 00:02:16.567 But it's not just the United States, of course. 57 00:02:16.567 --> 00:02:19.200 We talk about geopolitical recession, we recognize that 58 00:02:19.200 --> 00:02:23.000 America's allies in Europe are weak and fragmented, 59 00:02:23.000 --> 00:02:25.534 facing enormous internal challenges. 60 00:02:25.534 --> 00:02:29.100 We recognize that the Middle East is in disarray, 61 00:02:29.100 --> 00:02:31.334 that Asia has stronger leaders. 62 00:02:31.334 --> 00:02:36.300 China, of course, is much more willing to provide leadership 63 00:02:36.300 --> 00:02:40.734 economically that challenges U.S. architecture and norms 64 00:02:40.734 --> 00:02:43.467 and values, but in no other way. 65 00:02:43.467 --> 00:02:45.901 The Russians are willing to do that in terms of security, 66 00:02:45.901 --> 00:02:47.100 but in no other way. 67 00:02:47.100 --> 00:02:49.434 And you put all of those things together, and then you elect 68 00:02:49.434 --> 00:02:53.667 president Trump, come January 20th, I think we can say 69 00:02:53.667 --> 00:02:55.634 Pax Americana is over. 70 00:02:55.634 --> 00:02:59.534 We enter this geopolitical recession. 71 00:02:59.534 --> 00:03:02.300 And what's interesting about it is it's not going to be 72 00:03:02.300 --> 00:03:05.367 an enormous challenge for the United States at home, right? 73 00:03:05.367 --> 00:03:08.534 I mean, the global economic recession in 2008 affected 74 00:03:08.534 --> 00:03:10.167 everyone, there was enormous coupling 75 00:03:10.167 --> 00:03:11.434 of the global economies. 76 00:03:11.434 --> 00:03:15.067 Geopolitically, while Europe bleeds and while there's an 77 00:03:15.067 --> 00:03:18.434 arms race going on in Asia, and while we have territorial 78 00:03:18.434 --> 00:03:20.801 disputes in lots of parts of the world, the failed states, 79 00:03:20.801 --> 00:03:23.133 here in the United States we don't have a problem. 80 00:03:23.133 --> 00:03:24.534 Well, the president has -- President Obama 81 00:03:24.534 --> 00:03:29.300 has said to me and to others, when I'm around the world, 82 00:03:29.300 --> 00:03:31.934 they want America to lead. 83 00:03:31.934 --> 00:03:34.467 Now, is that no longer true, or is it that America 84 00:03:34.467 --> 00:03:35.767 doesn't want to lead? 85 00:03:35.767 --> 00:03:39.033 Look, it's true, and it's good that Obama has 86 00:03:39.033 --> 00:03:42.100 come to recognize that after eight years of the presidency 87 00:03:42.100 --> 00:03:45.267 because, of course, a lot of those same leaders would look to 88 00:03:45.267 --> 00:03:48.767 Obama, and say, you have not been leading, sir. 89 00:03:48.767 --> 00:03:50.033 And I do -- 90 00:03:50.033 --> 00:03:52.334 Is that only having to do with war 91 00:03:52.334 --> 00:03:54.968 in the Middle East, or does it have to do with 92 00:03:54.968 --> 00:03:57.000 global economic leadership? 93 00:03:57.000 --> 00:03:58.934 It has to do clearly with global 94 00:03:58.934 --> 00:04:00.501 economic leadership. 95 00:04:00.501 --> 00:04:03.934 And there was a period of time after the 2008 recession when 96 00:04:03.934 --> 00:04:06.434 the Chinese suddenly said how the American model doesn't work 97 00:04:06.434 --> 00:04:08.033 anymore, we should move away from it. 98 00:04:08.033 --> 00:04:09.167 We don't want that to be anymore. 99 00:04:09.167 --> 00:04:09.968 Yes, exactly. 100 00:04:09.968 --> 00:04:14.501 But more than that, it's also about American values. 101 00:04:14.501 --> 00:04:18.767 I mean, and you go and talk to leaders in Asia who desperately 102 00:04:18.767 --> 00:04:22.000 say they want the United States, and part of that is they 103 00:04:22.000 --> 00:04:25.234 believe that the United States created these multi-lateral 104 00:04:25.234 --> 00:04:29.200 institutions, like the U.N., like the IMF, like the World 105 00:04:29.200 --> 00:04:31.434 Bank, like Bretton Woods on currency, they want 106 00:04:31.434 --> 00:04:34.467 the Americans upholding those standards, 107 00:04:34.467 --> 00:04:35.834 the Americans and allies. 108 00:04:35.834 --> 00:04:39.634 And, you know, Trump saying I'd much rather work with Putin 109 00:04:39.634 --> 00:04:43.667 who's a strong man who can get it done, and the values inside 110 00:04:43.667 --> 00:04:45.734 that country doesn't necessarily matter, 111 00:04:45.734 --> 00:04:49.100 that is un-nerving to American allies. 112 00:04:49.100 --> 00:04:50.534 It's hard to put your finger on that, right? 113 00:04:50.534 --> 00:04:53.567 That soft power, that leading by example, but it's important. 114 00:04:53.567 --> 00:04:54.934 But when you say that I would ask -- I mean, 115 00:04:54.934 --> 00:04:58.701 is he different from a lot of other American leaders? 116 00:04:58.701 --> 00:05:01.434 I mean, they didn't ask those questions when they were making 117 00:05:01.434 --> 00:05:05.767 nuclear agreements, they didn't ask about what are you doing 118 00:05:05.767 --> 00:05:08.033 about this minority group in your country 119 00:05:08.033 --> 00:05:09.801 or this other minority group. 120 00:05:09.801 --> 00:05:13.167 They said how can we make a nuclear agreement that's 121 00:05:13.167 --> 00:05:15.334 in both of our national interests? 122 00:05:15.334 --> 00:05:17.734 They weren't stressing American values. 123 00:05:17.734 --> 00:05:20.634 They were stressing America's security. 124 00:05:20.634 --> 00:05:21.100 I know. 125 00:05:21.100 --> 00:05:23.834 And Kissinger, of course, is sort of one extreme 126 00:05:23.834 --> 00:05:24.634 side of that. 127 00:05:24.634 --> 00:05:27.868 You could argue that Jimmy Carter is perhaps the other -- 128 00:05:27.868 --> 00:05:29.534 America is more like Kissinger 129 00:05:29.534 --> 00:05:30.467 than Jimmy Carter. 130 00:05:30.467 --> 00:05:31.801 That's true, that's true. 131 00:05:31.801 --> 00:05:36.901 But America still has been promoting, for example, 132 00:05:36.901 --> 00:05:38.534 a free media. 133 00:05:38.534 --> 00:05:42.467 America has been promoting free markets globally. 134 00:05:42.467 --> 00:05:43.033 Rule of law. 135 00:05:43.033 --> 00:05:43.901 Rule of law. 136 00:05:43.901 --> 00:05:48.100 And I think we can make pretty clear that Trump's inclinations 137 00:05:48.100 --> 00:05:51.968 are that the American presidency has been diminished because 138 00:05:51.968 --> 00:05:56.033 American corporations are not acting in a patriotic manner, 139 00:05:56.033 --> 00:06:00.133 and American media is not acting in a patriotic manner. 140 00:06:00.133 --> 00:06:02.667 And he thinks that the American presidency would do a lot 141 00:06:02.667 --> 00:06:05.467 better and we'd have a much stronger negotiating position 142 00:06:05.467 --> 00:06:09.100 vis-a-vis other countries, if they were to back up 143 00:06:09.100 --> 00:06:11.934 the Americans and not act like a bunch of globalists or 144 00:06:11.934 --> 00:06:14.634 globalizers, and that's a very interesting change. 145 00:06:14.634 --> 00:06:15.067 Ok. 146 00:06:15.067 --> 00:06:17.868 But I'm asking at the same time, in China, isn't there more 147 00:06:17.868 --> 00:06:22.334 respect than there certainly was ten years ago 148 00:06:22.334 --> 00:06:24.868 for copyright protection, those kinds of things? 149 00:06:24.868 --> 00:06:25.400 Yes. 150 00:06:25.400 --> 00:06:27.367 They have gradually moved to acceptance 151 00:06:27.367 --> 00:06:28.434 of those kinds of things. 152 00:06:28.434 --> 00:06:29.634 Yes, right. 153 00:06:29.634 --> 00:06:30.234 They have. 154 00:06:30.234 --> 00:06:31.934 Those American values. 155 00:06:31.934 --> 00:06:32.567 Absolutely. 156 00:06:32.567 --> 00:06:35.667 And American values that became global values. 157 00:06:35.667 --> 00:06:37.234 Trump still cares about those values, 158 00:06:37.234 --> 00:06:38.067 I assume. 159 00:06:38.067 --> 00:06:43.801 A businessman needs predictability and expectation 160 00:06:43.801 --> 00:06:46.801 that contracts will be honored in order to do business. 161 00:06:46.801 --> 00:06:51.434 The importance of honoring contracts, I think, is 162 00:06:51.434 --> 00:06:54.067 something that's going to be an interesting question to watch 163 00:06:54.067 --> 00:06:56.934 under a Trump administration. 164 00:06:56.934 --> 00:06:58.501 I don't know if you want to go there. 165 00:06:58.501 --> 00:07:00.133 No, I do want to go there. 166 00:07:00.133 --> 00:07:00.901 No, but you know what I mean. 167 00:07:00.901 --> 00:07:03.100 I mean, clearly, conflicts of interest are going to be big. 168 00:07:03.100 --> 00:07:06.133 I mean, under Trump, you are going to have to start covering 169 00:07:06.133 --> 00:07:09.634 the United States analytically a little bit more like South 170 00:07:09.634 --> 00:07:13.400 Korea, where on the one hand -- not like Russia, not like China, 171 00:07:13.400 --> 00:07:16.734 but where on the one hand you have all of these official 172 00:07:16.734 --> 00:07:19.567 interests of the U.S., and the cabinet, and what they're saying 173 00:07:19.567 --> 00:07:22.634 politically, and then you have the Trump organization, 174 00:07:22.634 --> 00:07:25.200 informal kitchen cabinet, where the business interests and how 175 00:07:25.200 --> 00:07:28.634 do those things align, and to what extent was a phone call 176 00:07:28.634 --> 00:07:32.801 with the Taiwanese having to do with that, as opposed to 177 00:07:32.801 --> 00:07:35.834 or in addition to other policy interests? 178 00:07:35.834 --> 00:07:37.934 Historically, we haven't had to do much of that kind of 179 00:07:37.934 --> 00:07:40.400 analysis in the U.S., even though you do that a lot of that 180 00:07:40.400 --> 00:07:42.934 in covering many countries around the world. 181 00:07:42.934 --> 00:07:46.801 That's going to be interesting and complicated if you are an 182 00:07:46.801 --> 00:07:50.067 American corporation or if you are a foreign government trying 183 00:07:50.067 --> 00:07:53.434 to figure out what the best way is to work with 184 00:07:53.434 --> 00:07:54.501 this new president. 185 00:07:54.501 --> 00:07:56.667 Do you think the Obama presidency 186 00:07:56.667 --> 00:07:59.634 in world affairs was a successful presidency? 187 00:07:59.634 --> 00:08:00.067 No. 188 00:08:00.067 --> 00:08:00.868 No? 189 00:08:00.868 --> 00:08:03.400 No, and it really saddens me to say that because 190 00:08:03.400 --> 00:08:06.734 this is a guy that clearly wanted the best, right? 191 00:08:06.734 --> 00:08:09.367 I mean, you have to argue, you look at the way he's comported 192 00:08:09.367 --> 00:08:12.767 himself in the presidency, you look at the values that he has 193 00:08:12.767 --> 00:08:17.367 lived up to himself, the way he has tried to lead by example 194 00:08:17.367 --> 00:08:20.400 with his family, with his friends, with his White House. 195 00:08:20.400 --> 00:08:23.400 You want this guy to be able to succeed. 196 00:08:23.400 --> 00:08:27.701 And yet, when you look at the Obama administration's balance 197 00:08:27.701 --> 00:08:31.367 sheet internationally, where they've succeeded and where 198 00:08:31.367 --> 00:08:34.767 they've failed, they've got this limited Iran deal in their 199 00:08:34.767 --> 00:08:39.934 favor, they've got a Cuba opening that was way overdue, 200 00:08:39.934 --> 00:08:42.934 you've got some good symbolism with Hiroshima and Pearl Harbor 201 00:08:42.934 --> 00:08:46.634 between the U.S. and Japan, but aside from that, 202 00:08:46.634 --> 00:08:49.100 the transatlantic relationship is worse that it's been 203 00:08:49.100 --> 00:08:52.133 really since the end of World War II. 204 00:08:52.133 --> 00:08:55.200 The Russia relationship in my view is an abject failure, 205 00:08:55.200 --> 00:08:56.801 which makes it harder to criticize Trump, 206 00:08:56.801 --> 00:08:57.801 despite the fact -- 207 00:08:57.801 --> 00:08:59.067 Putin says that too. 208 00:08:59.067 --> 00:08:59.767 Absolutely. 209 00:08:59.767 --> 00:09:02.234 And it's hard to criticize Trump on the hacks, which I'm 210 00:09:02.234 --> 00:09:06.000 sure we'll get into, precisely because Obama has been so 211 00:09:06.000 --> 00:09:10.834 ineffectual at dealing with the Russians on a bunch of issues. 212 00:09:10.834 --> 00:09:12.000 Why is that? 213 00:09:12.000 --> 00:09:12.968 Why has he been ineffectual? 214 00:09:12.968 --> 00:09:13.934 Yes. 215 00:09:13.934 --> 00:09:18.367 Well, look, I think, on the one hand, he does 216 00:09:18.367 --> 00:09:22.801 want to talk the strong principles and values, but there 217 00:09:22.801 --> 00:09:26.334 needs to be a recognition that if you don't actually care that 218 00:09:26.334 --> 00:09:29.267 much or if your allies aren't really going to be with you, 219 00:09:29.267 --> 00:09:32.434 you can't necessarily accomplish the things you want. 220 00:09:32.434 --> 00:09:35.467 I think that Obama's had an administration where he thinks 221 00:09:35.467 --> 00:09:39.033 he's on the 20-yard-line, he's ready to kick the field goal, 222 00:09:39.033 --> 00:09:41.734 you recognize you've been pushed back to the 25, 30, 45, 223 00:09:41.734 --> 00:09:44.868 50, at some point you've got to bring the kicking team on, 224 00:09:44.868 --> 00:09:46.367 you've got to kick a punt for the long game. 225 00:09:46.367 --> 00:09:46.834 OK. 226 00:09:46.834 --> 00:09:52.033 Where are the cases where the Europeans were not with Obama 227 00:09:52.033 --> 00:09:54.100 or Obama was not with them? 228 00:09:54.100 --> 00:09:56.801 Well, certainly look at Syria. 229 00:09:56.801 --> 00:09:58.000 Well, Ok, except for Syria. 230 00:09:58.000 --> 00:09:58.868 The Ukraine. 231 00:09:58.868 --> 00:10:01.300 But, no, in terms of dealing with Russia. 232 00:10:01.300 --> 00:10:03.701 Yes, I would say on both of those. 233 00:10:03.701 --> 00:10:07.033 On Ukraine, there is no question, the ability of 234 00:10:07.033 --> 00:10:12.067 the United States to get strong and firm measures against 235 00:10:12.067 --> 00:10:14.767 the Russians, and sanctions was like pulling teeth. 236 00:10:14.767 --> 00:10:18.901 The support from the Europeans to actually help build Ukraine 237 00:10:18.901 --> 00:10:22.667 as an economy to make them sustainable was virtually zero. 238 00:10:22.667 --> 00:10:25.267 Germany absolutely wasn't there. 239 00:10:25.267 --> 00:10:29.000 The desire of the Europeans to work with Russia on energy, 240 00:10:29.000 --> 00:10:31.901 of course, half of them were looking to ensure that, 241 00:10:31.901 --> 00:10:32.968 they were the ones who took -- 242 00:10:32.968 --> 00:10:35.133 So was that a failure of Obama's leadership? 243 00:10:35.133 --> 00:10:36.501 Well, I think it's a failure of Obama 244 00:10:36.501 --> 00:10:40.167 to recognize that if the constellation of interests you 245 00:10:40.167 --> 00:10:43.267 have to play with don't line up to getting the Russians out of 246 00:10:43.267 --> 00:10:46.200 Ukraine, or making Ukraine a functional independent country, 247 00:10:46.200 --> 00:10:48.434 that you're probably going to have to change your policy. 248 00:10:48.434 --> 00:10:50.534 And I think that was true on Syria, and I think that's been 249 00:10:50.534 --> 00:10:53.400 true in handling the hacks as well. 250 00:10:53.400 --> 00:10:55.767 I think Obama made a big mistake in handling the hacks, 251 00:10:55.767 --> 00:10:56.868 to be honest with you. 252 00:10:56.868 --> 00:10:57.701 In what way? 253 00:10:57.701 --> 00:11:00.934 In the sense that if he truly believed that this 254 00:11:00.934 --> 00:11:03.634 was a threat to American national security and he said 255 00:11:03.634 --> 00:11:06.434 that he does, and that it was delegitimizing the U.S. 256 00:11:06.434 --> 00:11:09.801 election, he said that was true as well, then you hit 257 00:11:09.801 --> 00:11:14.167 the Russians hard and definitively when it's going on. 258 00:11:14.167 --> 00:11:15.133 You don't tell them to cut it off. 259 00:11:15.133 --> 00:11:15.968 Sooner rather than later. 260 00:11:15.968 --> 00:11:16.834 Sooner rather than later. 261 00:11:16.834 --> 00:11:19.267 He said the reason he didn't do it is because he didn't want to 262 00:11:19.267 --> 00:11:22.234 be perceived in the United States -- didn't want to be 263 00:11:22.234 --> 00:11:24.567 perceived in the United States as being partisan 264 00:11:24.567 --> 00:11:25.701 and supporting Hillary. 265 00:11:25.701 --> 00:11:28.133 I said, Mr. President, with all due respect, I have a lot of 266 00:11:28.133 --> 00:11:33.267 respect for this man, you're the president, and perceptions of 267 00:11:33.267 --> 00:11:37.767 being perceived as partisan is a lot less important than 268 00:11:37.767 --> 00:11:41.567 ensuring the national security of the country that you run. 269 00:11:41.567 --> 00:11:44.067 And that's not leadership -- 270 00:11:44.067 --> 00:11:46.367 I think he also feared a Russian reaction would 271 00:11:46.367 --> 00:11:50.033 spiral into something before the election, too. 272 00:11:50.033 --> 00:11:53.434 He did fear that, and yet, right, he was, 273 00:11:53.434 --> 00:11:57.534 as a consequence, unable to respond to a clear and direct 274 00:11:57.534 --> 00:12:00.968 threat to an American institution that we all hold 275 00:12:00.968 --> 00:12:02.634 as incredibly important. 276 00:12:02.634 --> 00:12:04.434 When President-elect Trump talks 277 00:12:04.434 --> 00:12:07.801 about Putin, what is it you think is at heart 278 00:12:07.801 --> 00:12:11.934 in that relationship, or at core? 279 00:12:11.934 --> 00:12:13.968 So we can focus -- there are a lot of things 280 00:12:13.968 --> 00:12:16.400 we can focus on, first, easy to score some points. 281 00:12:16.400 --> 00:12:18.434 If you're trying to put points on the board, in the same way 282 00:12:18.434 --> 00:12:21.133 that Abe comes over and gives you a golf club, easy to say, 283 00:12:21.133 --> 00:12:22.334 look, he respects me. 284 00:12:22.334 --> 00:12:29.200 Easy for Trump to say, look, Barack says Assad must go. 285 00:12:29.200 --> 00:12:30.501 We know that's foolish. 286 00:12:30.501 --> 00:12:31.434 He's still there. 287 00:12:31.434 --> 00:12:32.567 Obama is the one going. 288 00:12:32.567 --> 00:12:35.834 I can work with these Russians, we'll together fight ISIS. 289 00:12:35.834 --> 00:12:40.634 Easy for Trump to put some points on the board there. 290 00:12:40.634 --> 00:12:45.000 Easy for Trump to say Crimea was Russian before, it's Russian 291 00:12:45.000 --> 00:12:49.234 now, let him recognize it, easy for Trump to do that. 292 00:12:49.234 --> 00:12:52.267 Sees that the Europeans are moving away from sanctions, 293 00:12:52.267 --> 00:12:53.801 easy to normalize that. 294 00:12:53.801 --> 00:12:59.100 Now, there's also the issue that Trump does not support American 295 00:12:59.100 --> 00:13:03.400 exceptionalism, and this is a real bane for Putin as well. 296 00:13:03.400 --> 00:13:07.567 So the idea that there is a transactional foreign policy 297 00:13:07.567 --> 00:13:10.534 that occurs between two adults that are strong men that can do 298 00:13:10.534 --> 00:13:12.934 business together is one that's attractive to Trump, 299 00:13:12.934 --> 00:13:14.801 it's one that's attractive to Putin. 300 00:13:14.801 --> 00:13:21.267 But when I add up all of that, that doesn't quite get me to 301 00:13:21.267 --> 00:13:27.000 the level, the effusive level of consistent support that America 302 00:13:27.000 --> 00:13:31.634 first Trump seems to be promoting for Putin. 303 00:13:31.634 --> 00:13:32.934 Trump doesn't believe in American 304 00:13:32.934 --> 00:13:34.100 exceptionalism, you said? 305 00:13:34.100 --> 00:13:36.801 Trump clearly has said that we should not be 306 00:13:36.801 --> 00:13:41.200 promoting American democracy and trying to export it abroad. 307 00:13:41.200 --> 00:13:42.968 He says that we look like hypocrites and it doesn't 308 00:13:42.968 --> 00:13:45.067 do us any good and it allows -- 309 00:13:45.067 --> 00:13:46.267 Other people have said that. 310 00:13:46.267 --> 00:13:49.033 I mean, that's not a unique position to Donald Trump. 311 00:13:49.033 --> 00:13:52.367 A lot of people have said, look, it's not wise for us to go 312 00:13:52.367 --> 00:13:55.434 to a country and say that they should accept America's 313 00:13:55.434 --> 00:13:56.567 version of democracy. 314 00:13:56.567 --> 00:13:57.133 Right. 315 00:13:57.133 --> 00:13:58.400 They have a different culture, they have 316 00:13:58.400 --> 00:14:00.767 a different system, they have a different evolution. 317 00:14:00.767 --> 00:14:04.234 You know, we can't, therefore, go in to Iraq, after it 318 00:14:04.234 --> 00:14:07.634 collapses and say we're going to impose an American 319 00:14:07.634 --> 00:14:09.934 political system on you. 320 00:14:09.934 --> 00:14:10.434 True. 321 00:14:10.434 --> 00:14:11.100 They won't accept it. 322 00:14:11.100 --> 00:14:15.534 But Putin looks at Obama, he looks at -- Putin 323 00:14:15.534 --> 00:14:17.901 looks at Obama, he looks at Hillary, and he said these 324 00:14:17.901 --> 00:14:21.000 are people who fundamentally believe that their system is 325 00:14:21.000 --> 00:14:23.868 better than mine, and they are willing to try to de-legitimize 326 00:14:23.868 --> 00:14:25.334 me as a consequence. 327 00:14:25.334 --> 00:14:26.534 He absolutely believes that. 328 00:14:26.534 --> 00:14:29.701 And he sees Trump as someone who will not do that. 329 00:14:29.701 --> 00:14:32.033 What should have Obama done other than simply 330 00:14:32.033 --> 00:14:36.767 retaliate in kind, which Putin already believed 331 00:14:36.767 --> 00:14:37.834 they were doing? 332 00:14:37.834 --> 00:14:40.934 Yes, I think there would have had to be 333 00:14:40.934 --> 00:14:46.334 strong responses that were, at the time, they weren't just 334 00:14:46.334 --> 00:14:50.000 about sanctions, they would have had to include direct 335 00:14:50.000 --> 00:14:51.634 cyberattacks as well. 336 00:14:51.634 --> 00:14:53.133 What would we have attacked and what -- 337 00:14:53.133 --> 00:14:56.901 There were -- there was a series of 338 00:14:56.901 --> 00:15:01.167 recommendations that were made to the president by intelligence 339 00:15:01.167 --> 00:15:05.334 -- by CIA, these are the options that are in front of you, 340 00:15:05.334 --> 00:15:07.234 and he chose not to take them because he thought 341 00:15:07.234 --> 00:15:08.100 they were dangerous. 342 00:15:08.100 --> 00:15:10.467 I'm not privy to what those targets would have been, and 343 00:15:10.467 --> 00:15:12.400 if I were, I certainly will not be able to talk about it. 344 00:15:12.400 --> 00:15:13.467 The idea was they might have been 345 00:15:13.467 --> 00:15:16.300 the economic interest of Vladimir Putin. 346 00:15:16.300 --> 00:15:17.501 Could have been made transparent -- 347 00:15:17.501 --> 00:15:18.667 -- might be embarrassing to him. 348 00:15:18.667 --> 00:15:20.267 For example, or they could have frozen a bunch 349 00:15:20.267 --> 00:15:22.901 of assets, which we certainly have the ability to do -- 350 00:15:22.901 --> 00:15:24.634 There's also the notion that some of these things 351 00:15:24.634 --> 00:15:27.634 they did that we don't know. 352 00:15:27.634 --> 00:15:29.534 That's the argument made by some, you know. 353 00:15:29.534 --> 00:15:31.033 They're not telling us everything that they did 354 00:15:31.033 --> 00:15:32.100 in retaliation. 355 00:15:32.100 --> 00:15:33.234 I'm sure that's true. 356 00:15:33.234 --> 00:15:36.434 But if you look at what they are telling us and what they did, 357 00:15:36.434 --> 00:15:39.567 one assumes that there is some level of commensurateness with 358 00:15:39.567 --> 00:15:41.801 those two things, what they've actually have done publicly 359 00:15:41.801 --> 00:15:44.467 is extremely weak tea and very late, 360 00:15:44.467 --> 00:15:47.367 three weeks before Trump comes in. 361 00:15:47.367 --> 00:15:49.701 And Putin can then look magnanimous and say I'm not even 362 00:15:49.701 --> 00:15:51.200 going to pay attention because you're irrelevant, 363 00:15:51.200 --> 00:15:53.000 I'll work with my boy, Donald. 364 00:15:53.000 --> 00:15:55.400 So 2016 in your judgement was a very successful 365 00:15:55.400 --> 00:15:56.834 year for Vladimir Putin. 366 00:15:56.834 --> 00:15:57.767 I do agree. 367 00:15:57.767 --> 00:16:00.334 He came out of the Middle East and Syria 368 00:16:00.334 --> 00:16:03.067 as a power player. 369 00:16:03.067 --> 00:16:03.634 Yes. 370 00:16:03.634 --> 00:16:08.701 And a person who empowered Bashar al-Assad, who's 371 00:16:08.701 --> 00:16:14.667 now on the winning side, who's now eradicating rebel forces 372 00:16:14.667 --> 00:16:16.234 wherever he can find them, first in Aleppo 373 00:16:16.234 --> 00:16:20.000 and now surrounding Damascus. 374 00:16:20.000 --> 00:16:22.734 Look, Assad must go, turns out 375 00:16:22.734 --> 00:16:24.133 Obama must go, right? 376 00:16:24.133 --> 00:16:25.934 I mean, how many people would have expected that 377 00:16:25.934 --> 00:16:27.667 five years ago? 378 00:16:27.667 --> 00:16:28.634 When Obama leaves power, 379 00:16:28.634 --> 00:16:29.734 Assad's still in power. 380 00:16:29.734 --> 00:16:30.334 That's right. 381 00:16:30.334 --> 00:16:31.367 Because of Vladimir Putin. 382 00:16:31.367 --> 00:16:32.367 Because of Vladimir Putin. 383 00:16:32.367 --> 00:16:33.834 Primarily because of Vladimir Putin. 384 00:16:33.834 --> 00:16:35.267 And Vladimir Putin along with Russia, 385 00:16:35.267 --> 00:16:38.934 I mean, along with Iran and Turkey gets credit for. 386 00:16:38.934 --> 00:16:41.000 They're the ones that are putting an end 387 00:16:41.000 --> 00:16:43.067 to the war, they're the ones that are coordinating 388 00:16:43.067 --> 00:16:43.868 the cease fire. 389 00:16:43.868 --> 00:16:46.968 There are very few rebels to speak of at this point. 390 00:16:46.968 --> 00:16:49.634 Clearly ISIS has had territory taken away from them, 391 00:16:49.634 --> 00:16:51.133 and that's a positive thing. 392 00:16:51.133 --> 00:16:53.300 But if you look at 2016, you want to see who really 393 00:16:53.300 --> 00:16:55.267 was the man of the year? 394 00:16:55.267 --> 00:16:57.734 It's this guy running an economy that's not doing 395 00:16:57.734 --> 00:17:00.234 particularly well with an educational system that's kind 396 00:17:00.234 --> 00:17:03.133 of falling apart, not a global power anymore, 397 00:17:03.133 --> 00:17:04.467 former Soviet Union fell apart. 398 00:17:04.467 --> 00:17:06.734 Yet, Putin with that hand has still been able 399 00:17:06.734 --> 00:17:09.534 to run circles around other countries. 400 00:17:09.534 --> 00:17:11.167 And the largest nuclear force in the world. 401 00:17:11.167 --> 00:17:13.501 That's right, number one, U.S., number two. 402 00:17:13.501 --> 00:17:17.067 China, before I go to China, tell me where 403 00:17:17.067 --> 00:17:19.434 a war is most likely to break out. 404 00:17:19.434 --> 00:17:20.701 I'll tell you something that worries me, 405 00:17:20.701 --> 00:17:23.767 which, and this is about this geopolitical recession concept, 406 00:17:23.767 --> 00:17:27.300 which is that, you know, sitting across the table from you 407 00:17:27.300 --> 00:17:29.701 over the past years, if you had asked me, Ian, do you think 408 00:17:29.701 --> 00:17:32.968 there's any real possibility of a serious war 409 00:17:32.968 --> 00:17:37.934 between major countries, I would have said, nothing proximate. 410 00:17:37.934 --> 00:17:42.467 I look at 2017, and I can no longer say it's impossible. 411 00:17:42.467 --> 00:17:43.767 I don't think it's going to happen, 412 00:17:43.767 --> 00:17:45.167 but I think it's possible. 413 00:17:45.167 --> 00:17:46.434 Where is it possible? 414 00:17:46.434 --> 00:17:51.834 I think it is possible that because of 415 00:17:51.834 --> 00:17:55.901 the profound lack of trust between the major countries 416 00:17:55.901 --> 00:18:02.334 in the world, accidents can escalate to a greater degree. 417 00:18:02.334 --> 00:18:07.033 So the possibility of an armed confrontation over North Korea 418 00:18:07.033 --> 00:18:10.100 is now, I think, possible. 419 00:18:10.100 --> 00:18:12.367 So lay out the scenario what an armed 420 00:18:12.367 --> 00:18:14.334 confrontation over North Korea. 421 00:18:14.334 --> 00:18:16.634 So Trump tweets today. 422 00:18:16.634 --> 00:18:17.400 Yes. 423 00:18:17.400 --> 00:18:19.067 It's not going to happen, that they're going to have 424 00:18:19.067 --> 00:18:22.801 long-range missiles that can deliver nuclear warheads 425 00:18:22.801 --> 00:18:24.567 to the continental America. 426 00:18:24.567 --> 00:18:26.701 In other words, Trump, even before he becomes 427 00:18:26.701 --> 00:18:30.033 a president, decides he's going to set his own red line. 428 00:18:30.033 --> 00:18:30.501 Right. 429 00:18:30.501 --> 00:18:31.000 Right. 430 00:18:31.000 --> 00:18:33.300 Now, we know that red lines have gotten us in trouble before, 431 00:18:33.300 --> 00:18:35.467 particularly over North Korea, and a bunch of administrations 432 00:18:35.467 --> 00:18:36.834 have been hoisted on that. 433 00:18:36.834 --> 00:18:38.934 So maybe he just says this and he fails. 434 00:18:38.934 --> 00:18:40.267 But what if he means it? 435 00:18:40.267 --> 00:18:42.434 What if he means that they're not going to develop it, 436 00:18:42.434 --> 00:18:44.234 that they're going -- will be stopped. 437 00:18:44.234 --> 00:18:47.000 President Obama said they would not tolerate 438 00:18:47.000 --> 00:18:49.300 Iran having nuclear weapons. 439 00:18:49.300 --> 00:18:52.434 For example, or that they said that, you know, 440 00:18:52.434 --> 00:18:56.133 chemical weapons would not be tolerated in Syria 441 00:18:56.133 --> 00:18:57.167 and all these things. 442 00:18:57.167 --> 00:18:58.868 Well, they got rid of the chemical weapons. 443 00:18:58.868 --> 00:19:00.901 They did, they did. 444 00:19:00.901 --> 00:19:08.234 Point being that the ability to prevent North Korea from 445 00:19:08.234 --> 00:19:11.067 continuing to develop this program is something the United 446 00:19:11.067 --> 00:19:15.534 States has extremely limited capability to ensure. 447 00:19:15.534 --> 00:19:18.200 We can get the Chinese to engage with us on some 448 00:19:18.200 --> 00:19:20.634 multi-lateral sanctions, and they've been incredibly 449 00:19:20.634 --> 00:19:22.934 ineffective at getting the North Koreans to the table. 450 00:19:22.934 --> 00:19:25.467 So either Trump is going to have to have a much better 451 00:19:25.467 --> 00:19:28.367 relationship with China than heretofore he has shown 452 00:19:28.367 --> 00:19:31.334 an inclination to have, and he's going to get them on board, and 453 00:19:31.334 --> 00:19:33.300 we're going to say let's come up with some, you know, sort of 454 00:19:33.300 --> 00:19:37.267 creative diplomacy, some carrots and some sticks, recognizing 455 00:19:37.267 --> 00:19:39.767 that we have 20 nuclear weapons, recognizing they've got 456 00:19:39.767 --> 00:19:42.968 an ICBM program, and what can we give them to work with us? 457 00:19:42.968 --> 00:19:45.767 Thus far, that seems unlikely, right? 458 00:19:45.767 --> 00:19:49.100 Or he's going to have to take a hard line, 459 00:19:49.100 --> 00:19:50.501 and a hard line is what? 460 00:19:50.501 --> 00:19:52.367 He's going to militarily attack North Korea? 461 00:19:52.367 --> 00:19:55.200 Or a hard line is, what, he's going to sanction the Chinese 462 00:19:55.200 --> 00:19:57.968 because they're not cutting off the North Koreans? 463 00:19:57.968 --> 00:20:03.133 That has the ability to get the North Koreans really agitated, 464 00:20:03.133 --> 00:20:06.634 and you could imagine that the North Koreans would engage 465 00:20:06.634 --> 00:20:10.234 militarily in their backyard and create accidents. 466 00:20:10.234 --> 00:20:12.801 So what if the U.S. would take out whatever 467 00:20:12.801 --> 00:20:16.267 nuclear facilities they have, take them out militarily. 468 00:20:16.267 --> 00:20:16.734 Right. 469 00:20:16.734 --> 00:20:17.501 What would happen? 470 00:20:17.501 --> 00:20:18.934 Maybe nothing, right? 471 00:20:18.934 --> 00:20:21.501 I mean, wouldn't the rest of the world applaud? 472 00:20:21.501 --> 00:20:22.801 A lot of the world would applaud. 473 00:20:22.801 --> 00:20:24.634 I think, let's see where the South Koreans are 474 00:20:24.634 --> 00:20:25.834 at that point, right? 475 00:20:25.834 --> 00:20:28.267 We've got a South Korean president that is going to be 476 00:20:28.267 --> 00:20:32.701 forced out, and she's quite likely going to be replaced 477 00:20:32.701 --> 00:20:36.801 in quick elections with the opposition in South Korea. 478 00:20:36.801 --> 00:20:39.033 That opposition would be aligned with the Chinese, 479 00:20:39.033 --> 00:20:40.634 not with the United States. 480 00:20:40.634 --> 00:20:43.767 They probably toss out the idea of this THAAD Missile Defense 481 00:20:43.767 --> 00:20:46.868 System that the Americans worked out with President Park. 482 00:20:46.868 --> 00:20:48.501 South Koreans suddenly will be working more closely 483 00:20:48.501 --> 00:20:49.334 with the North Koreans. 484 00:20:49.334 --> 00:20:51.000 Japan is going to feel very isolated. 485 00:20:51.000 --> 00:20:53.801 China is going to feel like Trump is pushing 486 00:20:53.801 --> 00:20:55.467 in an extremely volatile way. 487 00:20:55.467 --> 00:20:59.501 It is -- the number of countries that are applauding the United 488 00:20:59.501 --> 00:21:04.767 States, even we do a good thing is reducing because countries 489 00:21:04.767 --> 00:21:07.634 aren't as convinced that the United States is there for them 490 00:21:07.634 --> 00:21:08.934 over the long term. 491 00:21:08.934 --> 00:21:11.501 But still Obama is right that when you look around the world, 492 00:21:11.501 --> 00:21:14.033 there still an awful lot of countries that would really 493 00:21:14.033 --> 00:21:15.501 like to see more U.S. 494 00:21:15.501 --> 00:21:17.934 You ask if they think they're getting it under a Trump 495 00:21:17.934 --> 00:21:20.000 administration, the answer for most of them is no. 496 00:21:20.000 --> 00:21:20.968 For most of them. 497 00:21:20.968 --> 00:21:21.567 For most of them. 498 00:21:21.567 --> 00:21:23.033 In the Middle East, that includes 499 00:21:23.033 --> 00:21:25.033 the Sunni countries? 500 00:21:25.033 --> 00:21:28.167 I think -- I was just there, and I met with a lot 501 00:21:28.167 --> 00:21:31.133 of leaders in the region, and I think that the gulf Arabs, 502 00:21:31.133 --> 00:21:36.133 they had such a hard time with Obama, and they like the fact 503 00:21:36.133 --> 00:21:38.300 that Trump is going after Iran. 504 00:21:38.300 --> 00:21:40.934 And Israel is not as relevant for them as it used to be, so 505 00:21:40.934 --> 00:21:43.033 the Netanyahu relationship they don't really care much about 506 00:21:43.033 --> 00:21:44.667 with Trump. 507 00:21:44.667 --> 00:21:47.801 They're kind of hopeful, especially with Tillerson as 508 00:21:47.801 --> 00:21:51.567 secretary of state nominee, that Trump's the businessman, 509 00:21:51.567 --> 00:21:54.868 he wants to fight terrorism, great, those countries 510 00:21:54.868 --> 00:21:55.901 want to fight terrorism. 511 00:21:55.901 --> 00:21:57.934 He can work with strong man authoritarians, he's not going 512 00:21:57.934 --> 00:21:59.067 to criticize them on human rights. 513 00:21:59.067 --> 00:22:01.968 Maybe Trump is OK for them. 514 00:22:01.968 --> 00:22:04.634 At this point, they don't know any of the Trump people, 515 00:22:04.634 --> 00:22:08.434 but they are cautiously hopeful. 516 00:22:08.434 --> 00:22:11.767 But the Europeans are not, the Asians are not, 517 00:22:11.767 --> 00:22:14.267 the Chinese certainly are not. 518 00:22:14.267 --> 00:22:17.400 So if you ask me to sort of take a temperature of the room 519 00:22:17.400 --> 00:22:20.501 around the world of, do people generally get unnerved 520 00:22:20.501 --> 00:22:23.501 or a little bit excited about Trump coming on as president, 521 00:22:23.501 --> 00:22:25.634 largely tilts to the former. 522 00:22:25.634 --> 00:22:26.901 They get unnerved. 523 00:22:26.901 --> 00:22:27.501 They get unnerved. 524 00:22:27.501 --> 00:22:28.767 Because he's unpredictable. 525 00:22:28.767 --> 00:22:30.033 Because he's unpredictable. 526 00:22:30.033 --> 00:22:31.934 And because they think he's going to be less of a friend 527 00:22:31.934 --> 00:22:34.767 to America first, looks like Mexico second, right? 528 00:22:34.767 --> 00:22:36.734 Well, I mean, there's also those people -- and 529 00:22:36.734 --> 00:22:40.267 I was looking at this piece that Jerry wrote today, you 530 00:22:40.267 --> 00:22:43.934 know, called a method in Trump's messaging habits, you know, 531 00:22:43.934 --> 00:22:45.801 that everything is simply an initial offer 532 00:22:45.801 --> 00:22:48.334 and that everybody knows that. 533 00:22:48.334 --> 00:22:52.634 That he's simply playing to what his instinct is as a real estate 534 00:22:52.634 --> 00:22:57.734 developer, which is if you come in with a much larger demand 535 00:22:57.734 --> 00:23:01.634 than you expect to get, it's all negotiation. 536 00:23:01.634 --> 00:23:04.000 Sure, and I do think that there will be deals 537 00:23:04.000 --> 00:23:05.634 that will get done. 538 00:23:05.634 --> 00:23:09.000 But, you know, if you're Mexico today looking at Ford closing 539 00:23:09.000 --> 00:23:12.567 a $1.7 billion plant in Mexico because Trump is telling 540 00:23:12.567 --> 00:23:16.634 U.S. corporations to become patriotic, that's very zero sum. 541 00:23:16.634 --> 00:23:20.100 If you're China and you're seeing Trump talking about -- 542 00:23:20.100 --> 00:23:22.400 your opening negotiating position may be way off 543 00:23:22.400 --> 00:23:23.734 the reservation. 544 00:23:23.734 --> 00:23:25.033 What's wrong with asking a country -- 545 00:23:25.033 --> 00:23:28.133 asking your businesses to be patriotic? 546 00:23:28.133 --> 00:23:28.968 What's wrong with that? 547 00:23:28.968 --> 00:23:30.834 There may be nothing wrong with it. 548 00:23:30.834 --> 00:23:33.100 We've been focusing on the rest of the world. 549 00:23:33.100 --> 00:23:34.934 If we were focusing this conversation on the United 550 00:23:34.934 --> 00:23:38.701 States and American workers, clearly, and even before 551 00:23:38.701 --> 00:23:41.067 becoming president, Trump has shown that he's willing to use 552 00:23:41.067 --> 00:23:44.033 the bully pulpit that he's going to have to force American 553 00:23:44.033 --> 00:23:46.501 corporations to pay more attention to American jobs. 554 00:23:46.501 --> 00:23:49.133 That is clearly a useful thing. 555 00:23:49.133 --> 00:23:51.400 If he adds to that some infrastructure spending, 556 00:23:51.400 --> 00:23:54.734 that will be a great thing for the U.S., but you can't ask me, 557 00:23:54.734 --> 00:23:56.901 do other countries think that's good? 558 00:23:56.901 --> 00:23:58.067 I think, why don't they do the same -- 559 00:23:58.067 --> 00:23:59.801 don't other countries do the same thing? 560 00:23:59.801 --> 00:24:04.033 Isn't every leader committed to drive the best thing he can 561 00:24:04.033 --> 00:24:06.334 for his own economy and for his own people? 562 00:24:06.334 --> 00:24:10.801 Isn't that what being elected leader is about? 563 00:24:10.801 --> 00:24:13.334 Free market capitalism as the Americans have 564 00:24:13.334 --> 00:24:17.667 experienced it, has historically been about creating a global 565 00:24:17.667 --> 00:24:19.734 market that is as efficient as possible. 566 00:24:19.734 --> 00:24:21.534 We have the biggest companies in the world. 567 00:24:21.534 --> 00:24:24.634 Therefore, we want to have access to all of those markets. 568 00:24:24.634 --> 00:24:27.133 We want to let those corporations invest wherever 569 00:24:27.133 --> 00:24:29.501 they see fit to maximize profitability. 570 00:24:29.501 --> 00:24:32.767 Now, if Trump is saying, you know what, that's fine, 571 00:24:32.767 --> 00:24:34.734 but these companies aren't really American, 572 00:24:34.734 --> 00:24:35.634 they're global companies. 573 00:24:35.634 --> 00:24:37.868 We see corporate inversions where a big pharmaceutical 574 00:24:37.868 --> 00:24:39.734 company in the U.S. will actually go and headquarter 575 00:24:39.734 --> 00:24:43.667 itself in the U.K. or Ireland for tax reasons, that I'm going 576 00:24:43.667 --> 00:24:46.534 to hit them hard, now, when he says that you the American 577 00:24:46.534 --> 00:24:48.300 corporation should be patriotic. 578 00:24:48.300 --> 00:24:50.300 You know what, Chinese corporations are very patriotic. 579 00:24:50.300 --> 00:24:52.367 Now, the question is will Trump be successful? 580 00:24:52.367 --> 00:24:54.501 We hope he will be. 581 00:24:54.501 --> 00:24:57.300 We do have to recognize that the number of jobs that were 582 00:24:57.300 --> 00:25:00.033 created by Ford's announcement was 700, the number of jobs 583 00:25:00.033 --> 00:25:02.734 closed in Mexico was 1800. 584 00:25:02.734 --> 00:25:05.901 Most of the jobs that leave the United States now are not going 585 00:25:05.901 --> 00:25:08.467 to other countries, they're going to machines. 586 00:25:08.467 --> 00:25:12.033 And Trump can build walls, but they don't keep A.I. 587 00:25:12.033 --> 00:25:13.067 from advancing. 588 00:25:13.067 --> 00:25:15.400 They're not going to take drivers' jobs back. 589 00:25:15.400 --> 00:25:18.334 One of the things that I do worry about is whether Trump 590 00:25:18.334 --> 00:25:20.434 is going to start going after Silicon Valley 591 00:25:20.434 --> 00:25:23.234 in a much harder way. 592 00:25:23.234 --> 00:25:25.767 Right, is he going to start saying, Uber, you're evil 593 00:25:25.767 --> 00:25:29.367 because you're taking away all of these jobs, and I'm not 594 00:25:29.367 --> 00:25:33.234 going to allow you to create a system where American -- 595 00:25:33.234 --> 00:25:36.534 And because the idea of retraining somehow 596 00:25:36.534 --> 00:25:38.567 rings hollow to many people. 597 00:25:38.567 --> 00:25:40.100 That's right, that's right. 598 00:25:40.100 --> 00:25:44.868 I mean, you can absolutely force a company or five or 50 599 00:25:44.868 --> 00:25:47.667 to open to provide some more jobs, get some tax credits 600 00:25:47.667 --> 00:25:48.734 and invest in the United States. 601 00:25:48.734 --> 00:25:50.033 And the U.S. is not a bad bet. 602 00:25:50.033 --> 00:25:54.534 If labor doesn't matter as much to productivity, then you 603 00:25:54.534 --> 00:25:56.968 shouldn't be producing as much in China, right? 604 00:25:56.968 --> 00:25:59.000 Because China is much more uncertain, you've got to pay 605 00:25:59.000 --> 00:26:01.934 to have things shipped, the U.S. is going to get some of that, 606 00:26:01.934 --> 00:26:03.667 but there is not going to be many jobs with that. 607 00:26:03.667 --> 00:26:05.267 Talk about Xi Jinping. 608 00:26:05.267 --> 00:26:09.067 I mean, he's got -- he wants -- it is said and rumored 609 00:26:09.067 --> 00:26:11.367 that he would like to serve a longer term. 610 00:26:11.367 --> 00:26:12.434 He would like to have another term. 611 00:26:12.434 --> 00:26:13.300 It is said and rumored. 612 00:26:13.300 --> 00:26:14.467 He has not said or rumored that. 613 00:26:14.467 --> 00:26:15.701 But it is said. 614 00:26:15.701 --> 00:26:17.501 It is said. 615 00:26:17.501 --> 00:26:20.567 And clearly he wants to be positioned as a very 616 00:26:20.567 --> 00:26:23.067 strong and great Chinese leader. 617 00:26:23.067 --> 00:26:24.734 Sure, and he is. 618 00:26:24.734 --> 00:26:27.267 And he wants the perception of the Chinese people 619 00:26:27.267 --> 00:26:28.033 to believe that. 620 00:26:28.033 --> 00:26:28.634 Right. 621 00:26:28.634 --> 00:26:30.067 And that he believes in peace 622 00:26:30.067 --> 00:26:30.734 and prosperity. 623 00:26:30.734 --> 00:26:31.567 Right. 624 00:26:31.567 --> 00:26:33.634 And that yet he's a strong nationalist 625 00:26:33.634 --> 00:26:35.300 as well, all of that. 626 00:26:35.300 --> 00:26:36.567 But this is the big year for him. 627 00:26:36.567 --> 00:26:37.100 Exactly. 628 00:26:37.100 --> 00:26:43.167 So having all those factors at play, how does he behave? 629 00:26:43.167 --> 00:26:46.334 I think that one of the most dangerous things 630 00:26:46.334 --> 00:26:50.501 globally about the Trump presidency with his volatility, 631 00:26:50.501 --> 00:26:54.000 with his, you know, OK, opening gambit, but then let's see 632 00:26:54.000 --> 00:26:56.100 where we get, but I'm going to bluster and I'll say 633 00:26:56.100 --> 00:26:58.901 whatever I want, and I'll rip up the script. 634 00:26:58.901 --> 00:27:03.534 This is a bad year to do that with the Chinese because of 635 00:27:03.534 --> 00:27:06.534 their party congress and their leadership change coming up. 636 00:27:06.534 --> 00:27:09.667 This is the year that Xi Jinping cannot be seen domestically 637 00:27:09.667 --> 00:27:15.000 to look weak at all, and his willingness to overreact to 638 00:27:15.000 --> 00:27:17.501 a Trump administration that's playing -- that's seen as 639 00:27:17.501 --> 00:27:23.734 playing games on Taiwan, on South China Sea, on North Korea, 640 00:27:23.734 --> 00:27:27.000 on tax, is potentially quite dangerous. 641 00:27:27.000 --> 00:27:29.801 Talk a minute about, speaking of 2017, 642 00:27:29.801 --> 00:27:31.534 Angela Merkel. 643 00:27:31.534 --> 00:27:32.634 Yes. 644 00:27:32.634 --> 00:27:33.434 Weaker? 645 00:27:33.434 --> 00:27:34.701 Weaker. 646 00:27:34.701 --> 00:27:35.567 Might not win? 647 00:27:35.567 --> 00:27:36.133 Will win. 648 00:27:36.133 --> 00:27:36.734 Will win. 649 00:27:36.734 --> 00:27:37.467 I know I shouldn't say things 650 00:27:37.467 --> 00:27:38.300 like that anymore. 651 00:27:38.300 --> 00:27:39.100 Right. 652 00:27:39.100 --> 00:27:40.567 Because, you know. 653 00:27:40.567 --> 00:27:41.367 Sometimes it's not true. 654 00:27:41.367 --> 00:27:42.834 Sometimes they are not true. 655 00:27:42.834 --> 00:27:46.701 I certainly didn't think Trump was going to win, 656 00:27:46.701 --> 00:27:48.334 most of us didn't. 657 00:27:48.334 --> 00:27:52.400 But in the case of Germany, unlike in France, where Le Pen 658 00:27:52.400 --> 00:27:56.234 really could win French elections, in Germany you just 659 00:27:56.234 --> 00:27:58.534 don't have the problems with the middle class and the working 660 00:27:58.534 --> 00:28:01.934 class, because the E.U. works for the Germans. 661 00:28:01.934 --> 00:28:04.100 You have the identity problems, the refugee issues, 662 00:28:04.100 --> 00:28:06.434 the security issues, but not the economic issues. 663 00:28:06.434 --> 00:28:09.234 You can't have opposition to Merkel saying I'll give you 664 00:28:09.234 --> 00:28:10.934 a vastly better economic deal. 665 00:28:10.934 --> 00:28:13.801 So Merkel gets a fourth term, but it is going to be with 666 00:28:13.801 --> 00:28:17.634 a weaker coalition, a more fragmented coalition, and the 667 00:28:17.634 --> 00:28:20.734 one thing you and I have been able to count on out of Europe 668 00:28:20.734 --> 00:28:23.834 since the 2008 financial crisis, no matter what kind of pickle 669 00:28:23.834 --> 00:28:27.133 these countries get themselves into, Merkel is a strong leader 670 00:28:27.133 --> 00:28:28.067 that can respond. 671 00:28:28.067 --> 00:28:30.567 She can respond to Brexit and she can lead the response. 672 00:28:30.567 --> 00:28:32.567 She can respond to the Greek crisis, she can respond to 673 00:28:32.567 --> 00:28:34.868 Spain, to Portugal, to Cypress, you name it. 674 00:28:34.868 --> 00:28:37.767 Now we are looking at 2017, there are just as many crises 675 00:28:37.767 --> 00:28:40.734 that are coming in Europe as there was in 2016. 676 00:28:40.734 --> 00:28:43.467 Absolutely, you haven't resolved the refugee issue, 677 00:28:43.467 --> 00:28:44.734 the terrorist problems. 678 00:28:44.734 --> 00:28:47.200 The French elections are going to be really big, a weaker 679 00:28:47.200 --> 00:28:52.267 Italian government, and Merkel's not going to be able to respond 680 00:28:52.267 --> 00:28:55.701 the way she had before, and the U.S./German relationship 681 00:28:55.701 --> 00:28:59.067 is also much more challenged now than it was 682 00:28:59.067 --> 00:29:00.934 when you were dealing with Obama. 683 00:29:00.934 --> 00:29:05.133 So I think that Europe looks particularly vulnerable because 684 00:29:05.133 --> 00:29:07.701 they haven't fixed any of the structural issues -- economic, 685 00:29:07.701 --> 00:29:10.634 political, or social -- that confront them, and yet, 686 00:29:10.634 --> 00:29:12.434 they no longer have the leadership to at least 687 00:29:12.434 --> 00:29:13.701 kick the can down the road. 688 00:29:13.701 --> 00:29:15.634 Let's talk about back here, domestically, 689 00:29:15.634 --> 00:29:18.100 the White House versus Silicon Valley. 690 00:29:18.100 --> 00:29:21.334 We saw Trump invite all of the Silicon Valley in 691 00:29:21.334 --> 00:29:23.634 and many of them came, most of them came. 692 00:29:23.634 --> 00:29:26.133 Yes. 693 00:29:26.133 --> 00:29:29.501 What do you see in terms of 2017? 694 00:29:29.501 --> 00:29:30.701 It would have been shocking if 695 00:29:30.701 --> 00:29:33.267 a President-Elect had invited a bunch of American CEO's 696 00:29:33.267 --> 00:29:35.667 of any stripe and they had chosen not to come. 697 00:29:35.667 --> 00:29:40.634 I take it at face value, they invite, and they show up, 698 00:29:40.634 --> 00:29:42.767 they have a photo op, that is great. 699 00:29:42.767 --> 00:29:48.701 But unlike Carrier and Boeing and Ford, which are corporations 700 00:29:48.701 --> 00:29:52.067 that, you know, I think they're deals that were fairly easy for 701 00:29:52.067 --> 00:29:54.634 them to do with the White House that make both look good, 702 00:29:54.634 --> 00:29:56.367 that say we're committed to America, you're committed 703 00:29:56.367 --> 00:29:57.501 to America, great. 704 00:29:57.501 --> 00:29:59.267 Silicon Valley is going to be much harder 705 00:29:59.267 --> 00:30:00.968 for a few reasons, right? 706 00:30:00.968 --> 00:30:04.434 One is that none of those guys supported Trump 707 00:30:04.434 --> 00:30:05.667 with the exception of Peter Thile. 708 00:30:05.667 --> 00:30:08.300 This is libertarian, Silicon Valley. 709 00:30:08.300 --> 00:30:10.868 He got completely trounced in California. 710 00:30:10.868 --> 00:30:11.968 He does remember that. 711 00:30:11.968 --> 00:30:14.968 More importantly, they are the ones that run social media. 712 00:30:14.968 --> 00:30:18.400 They are the ones that run the algorithms, the searches, 713 00:30:18.400 --> 00:30:20.868 Amazon, Google, and Facebook. 714 00:30:20.868 --> 00:30:24.234 Bezos is the one that owns The Washington Post. 715 00:30:24.234 --> 00:30:29.133 There's going to be a real fight over information and media space 716 00:30:29.133 --> 00:30:31.634 that Trump feels he needs to control and his chief 717 00:30:31.634 --> 00:30:34.033 strategist, Steve Bannon, feels they need to control. 718 00:30:34.033 --> 00:30:37.033 Silicon Valley will be on the opposite side of that. 719 00:30:37.033 --> 00:30:38.934 That is going to be a problem. 720 00:30:38.934 --> 00:30:44.167 Then you have the issue that, on security, Trump is going to 721 00:30:44.167 --> 00:30:47.167 take a much more intrusive perspective, as you've seen 722 00:30:47.167 --> 00:30:51.634 with his new CIA Director appointment and many others -- 723 00:30:51.634 --> 00:30:53.067 Law and order perspective? 724 00:30:53.067 --> 00:30:55.968 Much more, and much more a we need to have 725 00:30:55.968 --> 00:30:58.367 access to this data, and we need to be intrusive in these 726 00:30:58.367 --> 00:31:00.033 organizations, and that is going to be a problem 727 00:31:00.033 --> 00:31:02.067 for the corporates in Silicon Valley, too. 728 00:31:02.067 --> 00:31:05.400 Add to that the discussion you and I just had about jobs, 729 00:31:05.400 --> 00:31:09.000 and Silicon Valley is the one part of the U.S. economy that is 730 00:31:09.000 --> 00:31:13.467 knocking the cover off the ball, but that is all about trying 731 00:31:13.467 --> 00:31:16.767 to find ways to do great and efficient work without people. 732 00:31:16.767 --> 00:31:21.000 You can see how the single most important driver of U.S. 733 00:31:21.000 --> 00:31:24.100 and global economic growth is suddenly really on 734 00:31:24.100 --> 00:31:26.801 the wrong side of President Trump. 735 00:31:26.801 --> 00:31:29.434 And I do wonder how many of those companies will say, 736 00:31:29.434 --> 00:31:30.167 you know what? 737 00:31:30.167 --> 00:31:32.267 Being based in the U.S., we're not sure we want to be doing 738 00:31:32.267 --> 00:31:35.868 as much of that under this guy, and we're not sure how we can 739 00:31:35.868 --> 00:31:39.133 come to a modus vivendi with this guy. 740 00:31:39.133 --> 00:31:40.934 I think this is going to be a big fight. 741 00:31:40.934 --> 00:31:41.501 You really think so? 742 00:31:41.501 --> 00:31:42.100 I do. 743 00:31:42.100 --> 00:31:44.701 You think people like those major companies with 744 00:31:44.701 --> 00:31:48.667 some of the highest market cap in America, business, are going 745 00:31:48.667 --> 00:31:50.968 to say, we're just going to move outside the country? 746 00:31:50.968 --> 00:31:52.834 I think they're going to see it's going to be 747 00:31:52.834 --> 00:31:56.267 very hard for them to align their fundamental interests 748 00:31:56.267 --> 00:31:57.934 with what Trump is going to be demanding. 749 00:31:57.934 --> 00:32:01.133 Some of them will end up sucking it up and dealing. 750 00:32:01.133 --> 00:32:03.801 Some of them will spin off some parts of their company that are 751 00:32:03.801 --> 00:32:06.167 particularly problematic and sell them for big money 752 00:32:06.167 --> 00:32:07.667 and do more in the United States. 753 00:32:07.667 --> 00:32:10.901 But they need the education, but they need the H1d's, they need 754 00:32:10.901 --> 00:32:13.901 the visas, and that is another place where Trump is not showing 755 00:32:13.901 --> 00:32:16.801 a lot of inclination, at least early, to be really supportive. 756 00:32:16.801 --> 00:32:18.100 What is it about Trump that you think 757 00:32:18.100 --> 00:32:19.467 worries most people? 758 00:32:19.467 --> 00:32:23.267 Is it simply that he seems to be playing by different rules 759 00:32:23.267 --> 00:32:25.100 and different assumptions than everybody else 760 00:32:25.100 --> 00:32:26.234 has played in the past? 761 00:32:26.234 --> 00:32:27.667 I come at this with the perspective at Trump is 762 00:32:27.667 --> 00:32:30.667 my president, I come at this with the perspective that I want 763 00:32:30.667 --> 00:32:35.701 him to succeed and we need him to succeed, but I also wonder, 764 00:32:35.701 --> 00:32:40.567 to the extent that he fails, is he likely to fail more because 765 00:32:40.567 --> 00:32:44.267 he is incompetent, more because he is corrupt, 766 00:32:44.267 --> 00:32:46.567 or more because he is authoritarian? 767 00:32:46.567 --> 00:32:49.167 And I will tell you the first two of those things don't bother 768 00:32:49.167 --> 00:32:51.000 me very much, the third one does. 769 00:32:51.000 --> 00:32:51.834 Incompetent? 770 00:32:51.834 --> 00:32:54.234 If it turns out that he fails because he is 771 00:32:54.234 --> 00:32:56.033 incompetent, the system can deal with that. 772 00:32:56.033 --> 00:32:59.033 And you will have smart people and smart institutions around 773 00:32:59.033 --> 00:33:00.133 and decentralization -- 774 00:33:00.133 --> 00:33:01.167 Some are around him already. 775 00:33:01.167 --> 00:33:01.868 Some. 776 00:33:01.868 --> 00:33:03.167 It's not competence or corruption. 777 00:33:03.167 --> 00:33:04.400 It is not corruption. 778 00:33:04.400 --> 00:33:08.434 If there is something that worries me it's if he fails 779 00:33:08.434 --> 00:33:12.701 because he is an authoritarian personality, in other words, 780 00:33:12.701 --> 00:33:18.067 if what Trump really is driven by is the acquisition of power 781 00:33:18.067 --> 00:33:21.901 at the expense of others, and if he fails in that way, 782 00:33:21.901 --> 00:33:25.033 particularly if the U.S. has a crisis and he starts becoming 783 00:33:25.033 --> 00:33:29.200 more unpopular, he isn't seen as doing well, he goes down to the 784 00:33:29.200 --> 00:33:33.000 20s and is getting hit on all sides and refuses to take it, 785 00:33:33.000 --> 00:33:36.400 and you have a crisis, the ability of the U.S. Executive 786 00:33:36.400 --> 00:33:39.167 to respond to a crisis, to do things that could actually 787 00:33:39.167 --> 00:33:42.968 truly undermine the long-term sustainability of democratic 788 00:33:42.968 --> 00:33:44.634 American institutions is real. 789 00:33:44.634 --> 00:33:46.367 So the scenario is what? 790 00:33:46.367 --> 00:33:48.934 The scenario is -- you think about the 2008 791 00:33:48.934 --> 00:33:51.801 financial crisis and how we were able, the U.S. Presidents, 792 00:33:51.801 --> 00:33:54.334 two U.S. Presidents were able to cut checks for over a trillion 793 00:33:54.334 --> 00:33:57.167 dollars without any really congressional oversight, 794 00:33:57.167 --> 00:34:00.033 or look at after 9/11 and the wars we got into, the Patriot 795 00:34:00.033 --> 00:34:04.033 Act and all the rest, so the scenario is if it turns out 796 00:34:04.033 --> 00:34:07.067 that Trump's downside is not incompetence or corruption 797 00:34:07.067 --> 00:34:10.434 but it is authoritarian tendencies, if that is true, 798 00:34:10.434 --> 00:34:14.367 Then the thing that would worry me is in response to a crisis, 799 00:34:14.367 --> 00:34:19.100 that authoritarian inclination really damages our democracy 800 00:34:19.100 --> 00:34:21.667 long term, that would be my concern. 801 00:34:21.667 --> 00:34:24.100 So he loses any sense of paying attention to 802 00:34:24.100 --> 00:34:27.400 democracy and the democratic values that this country 803 00:34:27.400 --> 00:34:28.534 has been founded on? 804 00:34:28.534 --> 00:34:31.767 He said that Putin's a stronger leader than 805 00:34:31.767 --> 00:34:34.634 Obama, and he said it in a way that of course that's true, 806 00:34:34.634 --> 00:34:35.400 we know that is true -- 807 00:34:35.400 --> 00:34:36.834 But he said that in terms of -- I mean, 808 00:34:36.834 --> 00:34:40.367 as I remember it, he said he is a stronger leader 809 00:34:40.367 --> 00:34:42.167 for Russia than Obama is. 810 00:34:42.167 --> 00:34:43.467 Yes, there is no question. 811 00:34:43.467 --> 00:34:45.834 But he wasn't recommending a Putin 812 00:34:45.834 --> 00:34:46.901 for the United States. 813 00:34:46.901 --> 00:34:47.634 No, he was not. 814 00:34:47.634 --> 00:34:48.300 He clearly wasn't. 815 00:34:48.300 --> 00:34:50.834 Basically, for Russia, he is a stronger leader. 816 00:34:50.834 --> 00:34:53.501 But if you look at -- I don't think we know 817 00:34:53.501 --> 00:34:58.868 enough yet to know which of those three he is. 818 00:34:58.868 --> 00:35:01.701 We don't actually know, we know a lot of showmanship, 819 00:35:01.701 --> 00:35:03.801 but we don't know his weakness. 820 00:35:03.801 --> 00:35:06.334 Turns out, I think Obama's weakness was resolve 821 00:35:06.334 --> 00:35:10.767 and leadership when risks needed to be taken. 822 00:35:10.767 --> 00:35:13.901 I mean, Obama's a guy that clearly has no problems 823 00:35:13.901 --> 00:35:15.868 accepting facts. 824 00:35:15.868 --> 00:35:17.501 Trump doesn't like accepting facts. 825 00:35:17.501 --> 00:35:18.501 Obama accepts facts -- 826 00:35:18.501 --> 00:35:21.934 He listens and says I don't believe that 827 00:35:21.934 --> 00:35:24.267 American intelligence is right when they say that the Russians 828 00:35:24.267 --> 00:35:27.100 were hacking in the United States. 829 00:35:27.100 --> 00:35:28.968 And so when that happens, when it turns out that 830 00:35:28.968 --> 00:35:32.267 Trump is not accepting facts, is that happening 831 00:35:32.267 --> 00:35:34.567 because of lack of competence? 832 00:35:34.567 --> 00:35:37.000 Is it happening because he has a different set of interests 833 00:35:37.000 --> 00:35:40.667 that support Trump and his family and his corporation? 834 00:35:40.667 --> 00:35:44.501 Or is it because he actually wants to accumulate more power? 835 00:35:44.501 --> 00:35:46.968 And I think we don't know the answer to that. 836 00:35:46.968 --> 00:35:50.100 We all want him to succeed, but we do have to recognize 837 00:35:50.100 --> 00:35:51.000 that there is downside. 838 00:35:51.000 --> 00:35:52.667 Or he has some reason for not wanting the facts 839 00:35:52.667 --> 00:35:54.434 to be real, for example. 840 00:35:54.434 --> 00:35:57.100 Yes, so that is the thing that worries me 841 00:35:57.100 --> 00:35:59.968 the most is we have a couple of weeks left before we get into 842 00:35:59.968 --> 00:36:02.434 a very different environment with our president. 843 00:36:02.434 --> 00:36:03.934 Thank you for coming. 844 00:36:03.934 --> 00:36:05.167 Charlie, great to see you. 845 00:36:05.167 --> 00:36:06.000 Thank you. 846 00:36:06.000 --> 00:36:09.567 Ian Bremmer, "The Risks for 2017." 847 00:36:09.567 --> 00:36:11.868 Back in a moment, stay with us.